SWPAC: Tropical Depression 05F (90P)

[wyq614]

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 11/2359 UTC 2009 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD [1000HPA] NEAR 13.8S 158.3E AT 112100UTC
MOVING EAST 10 KNOTS. POSITION POOR BASED ON IR/VIS IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 30 TO 31
DEGREE CELCIUS.

THE SYSTEM LIES EMBEDDED IN AN ACTIVE MONSOONAL TROUGH,UNDER THE
250HPA SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND GOOD UPPER
DIFFLUENCE. THE SYSTEM IS CHARACTERISED BY PULSING CONVECTION AT THIS
STAGE. ACTIVE CONVERGENCE ZONE TO THE NORTH MAINTAINS WEST TO
NORTHWEST 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, SLIGTLY
DISPLACED FROM THE LLCC. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
MOVING IN A GENERAL SOUTHEAST DIRECTION WITH GOOD CHANCE OF
DEVELOPMENT SINCE IT REMAINS IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. A HIGH
MOVING INTO THE TASMAN SEA IN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS PROVIDES A
MODERATE SOUTHEAST SURGE FROM THE SOUTH.

MOST GLOBAL MODELS HAVE NOT PICKED THE SYSTEM BUT MAINTAIN A STRING
OF LOWS ALONG THE MONSOONAL TROUGH.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN
THE AREA.

http://www.met.gov.fj/index.php?id=54&a ... =20036.txt

[Chacor]

This is in Brisbane's region, hence Nadi did not number it.

[Chacor]

WWPS21 NFFN 122100
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 12/2339 UTC 2009 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD 05F [1000HPA] NEAR 13.2S 165.3E AT 122100UTC
MOVING EAST 10 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD BASED ON VIS IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION, LATEST SSMI PASS AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. SST
AROUND 30 TO 31 DEGREE CELCIUS.

THE SYSTEM LIES ALONG THE MONSOONAL TROUGH, UNDER A 250HPA
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN A 20 TO 30 KNOT WIND SHEAR. DEEP CONVECTION IS
SHEARED TO THE WEST WITH AN EXPOSED LLCC. ACTIVE CONVERGENCE ZONE TO
THE NORTH MAINTAINS WEST TO NORTHWEST 25 KNOT WINDS IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING IN A
GENERAL SOUTHEAST DIRECTION. DEVELOPMENT MAY BE INHIBITED BY
ENTRAINMENT OF DRY AIR FROM THE SOUTH IN THE SHORT TERM. HOWEVER, AN
UPPER AMPLIFYING TROUGH MIGRATING FROM THE SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE IN AND PROVIDE A SIGNIFICANT BOOST IN OUTFLOW AND ALLOW RAPID
DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 36 HOURS WHEN IT REACHES SOUTHWEST OF FIJI.

THE UK MODEL IS AWARE OF THE CURRENT WEAK CIRCULATION, WHILE THE REST
OF THE GLOBAL MODELS PICK THE SYSTEM AS IT DEVELOPS EXPLOSIVELY
SOUTHWEST OF FIJI AND MOVE IT RAPIDLY TO THE SOUTHEAST.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN
THE AREA.

[Chacor]

WWPS21 NFFN 130900
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 13/0915 UTC 2009 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD 05F [1000HPA] NEAR 14.5S 170.0E AT 130900UTC
MOVING EASTSOUTHEAST 15 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD BASED ON IR IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION, LATEST SSMI PASS AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. SST
AROUND 30 TO 31 DEGREE CELCIUS.

THE SYSTEM REMAINS ALONG THE MONSOONAL TROUGH, UNDER A 250HPA
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN 10 TO 20 KNOT WIND SHEAR. DEEP CONVECTION IS
DEVELOPING TO THE EAST AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO A LOW SHEAR ZONE.
ACTIVE CONVERGENCE ZONE TO THE NORTH MAINTAINS WEST TO NORTHWEST 25
KNOT WINDS IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE MOVING IN A GENERAL SOUTHEAST DIRECTION INTO AREA OF LOW
SHEAR. CIRCULATION IS GRADUALLY IMPROVING AS 05F MOVES INTO A
FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT. RAPID DEVELOPMENT AND OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED IN
THE NEXT 18 HOURS AS AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH MIGRATES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.

THE UK MODEL IS AWARE OF THE CURRENT WEAK CIRCULATION, WHILE THE REST
OF THE GLOBAL MODELS PICK THE SYSTEM AS IT DEVELOPS EXPLOSIVELY
SOUTHWEST OF FIJI AND MOVE IT RAPIDLY TO THE SOUTHEAST.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN
THE AREA.

[P.K.]

WTPS11 NFFN 131800
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A1 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 13/2033 UTC 2009 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD05F [999HPA] NEAR 15.4S 170.7E AT 131800 UTC.
POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION, LATEST SSMI
PASS AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING
EAST SOUTHEAST ABOUT 15 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO CURVE ON A MORE
SOUTHEAST TRACK. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS IN
THE SECTOR WEST THROUGH EAST TO SOUTHEAST.

THE SYSTEM LIES EMBEDDED IN AN ACTIVE MONSOONAL TROUGH, UNDER THE
250HPA SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN A REGION OF DECREASING SHEAR AND
INCREASING DIFFLUENCE. DEEP CONVECTION HAS POPPED CLOSE TO THE LLCC
TO THE WEST AND SOUTH WITH SPIRALING RAIN BANDS EVIDENT TO THE EAST.
AN ACTIVE CONVERGENCE ZONE REMAINS TO THE NORTH. DVORAK ANALYSIS
BASED ON CURVED BAND PATTERN YIELDS DT=PT=2.0 AND MET=2.5. FT BASED
ON DT, RESULTING IN T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24HRS. OUTFLOW AND CONVECTION ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS AS AN
AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH MIGRATING FROM THE SOUTHWEST STARTS TO
INFLUENCE 05F. 05F IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY FURTHER AS IT CONTINUES
TO TRACK SOUTHEAST IN A REGION OF LOW ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR.

GLOBAL MODELS [EC/GFS] ARE NOT PICKING THIS SMALL SYSTEM, WHILE THE
UK MODEL IDENTIFIES A WEAK CIRCULATION WHERE 05F IS LOCATED BUT DOES
NOT DEVELOP IT. THE MODELS ARE CURRENTLY IDENTIFYING A LOW ANALYSED
TO THE SOUTH OF FIJI AND RAPIDLY DEEPENING IT WHILE MOVING IT TO THE
SOUTHEAST IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

POTENTIAL FOR 05F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS MODERATE.

The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on 05F will be issued at
140230UTC.

[Chacor]

[HURAKAN]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.0S
166.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.1S 172.8E, APPROXIMATELY 275 NM WEST
OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
132000Z 91H SSMIS IMAGE DEPICTS AN ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) THAT IS TRACKING SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST. OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS, THERE HAVE BEEN ISOLATED FLARES OF DEEP CONVECTION
NEAR THE LLCC BUT PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS YET TO DEVELOP.
A 121817Z WINDSAT IMAGE SHOWED 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS NEAR THE CENTER
ALTHOUGH THE LLCC WAS POORLY DEFINED IN THE SCATTEROMETRY DATA.
THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT HAS IMPROVED RECENTLY WITH VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR WEAKENING AND EQUATORWARD VENTING BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE AS
EVIDENCED IN ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. ADDITIONALLY, A DEEPING
UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST MAY POTENTIALLY LINK
WITH THE DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND PROVIDE A
SIGNIFICANT POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL POSSIBLY ALLOWING THE AREA TO
DEVELOP RAPIDLY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23
TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001
MB. DUE TO THE DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, IMPROVED EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW AND APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL LOW, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.

[Chacor]

Well, Fiji doesn't have much hope for it any more.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A3 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 14/0830 UTC 2009 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD05F [999HPA] NEAR 18.5S 175.5E AT 140600 UTC.
POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT EIR/VIS IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. DEPRESSION MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
ABOUT 25 KNOTS. EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITHIN 120
NAUTICAL MILES OF LINE 17S 177E 19S 180 22S 175W, INCREASING TO 35
KNOTS AT TIMES IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

SYSTEM EMBEDDED IN AN ACTIVE MONSOON TROUGH, JUST SOUTH OF THE 250HPA
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND DOWNSTREAM OF A SHARPENING UPPER 250 TROUGH.
DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED TO NE OF LLCC. CONVECTION LOSING CURVATURE.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON CURVED BAND PATTERN WITH A WRAP OF 0.2
YIELDS DT=1.5. PT=1.0 MET=1.0 FT BASED ON DT, THUS
T1.5/2.0/W0.5/24HRS. 05F IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEAST
IN A REGION OF INCREASING ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR AND LOSE ITS TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS.

GLOBAL MODELS [EC/GFS] ARE NOT PICKING THIS SMALL SYSTEM, WHILE THE
UK MODEL IDENTIFIES A WEAK CIRCULATION WHERE 05F IS LOCATED BUT DOES
NOT DEVELOP IT. THE MODELS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING A BAROCLINIC LOW
ANALYSED TO THE SOUTH OF FIJI AND RAPIDLY DEEPENING THE SYSTEM WHILE
MOVING IT TO THE SOUTHEAST IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

POTENTIAL FOR 05F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TD05F UNLESS
RE-DEVELOPMENT OCCURS.