SIO: FANELE - Extratropical

[Crostorm]

[Crostorm]

[CrazyC83]

Where is the center? The cloud center inland or the deep convection offshore?

[Crostorm]

Fanelli, whose center of low layer Madagascar should leave within a few hours in the resort on the Indian Ocean between the cities of Tolagnaro Sandravinany and left a heavy burden on the region of Menabe.

I do not tonight on the details of damage but they are considerable, are all evidence shows state of desolation and appocalypse.

Morondava is under water more than 80% of its surface.

Cities such as Belo, Ankober Ankevo or destroyed more than 60%.

http://world-meteo.site.voila.fr/

[Chacor]

Over water.

WTIO30 FMEE 220014

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 16/7/20082009
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 7 (EX-FANELE)

2.A POSITION 2009/01/22 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.8S / 48.4E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY EIGHT DECIMAL FOUR
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-EAST 15 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /W
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 40 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/01/22 12 UTC: 25.1S/49.9E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
24H: 2009/01/23 00 UTC: 26.7S/51.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
36H: 2009/01/23 12 UTC: 29.5S/53.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
48H: 2009/01/24 00 UTC: 30.9S/54.9E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
60H: 2009/01/24 12 UTC: 32.0S/57.1E, MAX WIND=025KT, BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.
72H: 2009/01/25 00 UTC: 32.8S/58.4E, MAX WIND=025KT, EXTRATROPICAL.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
THE SYSTEM IS BACK AT SEA IN THE SOUTH EAST TO MALAGASY.
IT SEEMS THAT FANELE HAS A SMALL WINDOW FOR SOME INTENSIFICATION WITH A
BETTER TRADEWIND INFLOW AS SOME RIDGE IS TEMPORARELY REBUILT SOUTWARDS
AND ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. MOREOVER A NORTHWESTERN
SUBTROPICAL JET LOCATED AHEAD OF SHORT MID-LAT TROUGH THAT SHOULD PASS
SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM FRIDAY COULD PRODUCE SOME GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW.

IT IS NOT UNLIKELY THAT THIS SYSTEM REGAIN TEMPORARILY MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM STATUS. LIMITANT FACTOR ARE COOLER SST (NO HEAT CONTAIN SOUTH OF
27S), SOME WESTERLY MODERATE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR THAT COULD BE GENERATE BY
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONNED MID-LAT TROUGH, AND THE ARRIVAL OF SOME
MID-LEVEL DRY AI
R FORECASTED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

MOST OF THE AVAILABLE NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST
TRACK.

[vbhoutex]

We had someone from Morondava join the site today. Hopefully they will post.

[Crostorm]

984
WTIO30 FMEE 221222

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 18/7/20082009
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (FANELE)

2.A POSITION 2009/01/22 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.2S / 50.6E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST
)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-EAST 15 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 994 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 180 SE: 220 SO: 240 NO: 100

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/01/23 00 UTC: 27.0S/51.5E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
24H: 2009/01/23 12 UTC: 29.3S/52.7E, MAX WIND=035KT, BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.
36H: 2009/01/24 00 UTC: 30.9S/54.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
48H: 2009/01/24 12 UTC: 32.1S/56.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
60H: 2009/01/25 00 UTC: 32.9S/58.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
72H: 2009/01/25 12 UTC: 34.1S/60.9E, MAX WIND=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T AND CI=2.5+
THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING AGAIN OVER SEA SINCE YESTERDAY AT 21 UTC WHEN IT
LEFT MALAGASY AS A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE, AT ABOUT 80KM SOUTH OF FARAFANGA
(23.5S/43.6E).
THE SYSTEM STILL HAS A GOOD TRADEWIND INFLOW BUT STAYS HOWEVER IN THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF A NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL JET.
THIS JET COULD MAKE SOME GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW BUT COULD GENERATE A
LITTLE SHEAR CONSTRAINT IN THE SAME TIME WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITANT
..
MOST OF THE AVAILABLE NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST
TRACK.

FOR YOUR INFORMATION : EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 1000HPA 45/50KT EX-ERIC
IS CENTERED AT 22/1200UTC NEAR 38.0S/69.1E MOVING SOUTHEASTWARDS AT 50KT.


.

[Crostorm]

[Crostorm]

Cyclone destroys 100s of homes

Antananarivo - The Indian Ocean island of Madagascar was on Thursday picking up the pieces after tropical Cyclone Fanele whipped across its western half, destroying hundreds of homes and dousing the area with torrential rains, causing flooding.

The Western resort of Morondava, which has a population of about 80 000, and the surrounding towns were 80% destroyed, the regional administrator, Mamy Elise Andriamasiarison, said.

Fanele slammed into Madagascar in the early hours of Wednesday morning at wind speeds of up to 260km/h.

In Morondava, one person was reported killed and 27 injured, the Midi Madagasikara newspaper reported.

About 3&mnbsp;000 people were left homeless after their homes were partially or fully destroyed and were being accommodated in schools, churches, the local hospital or Red Cross shelters, the report said.

A number of public buildings, including schools and administration offices, in Morondava also suffered extensive damage. Most of the town, which is famous for its Baobab (Africa's "upside-down" tree) Avenue, was still under water.

Power and water supplies to the town have been cut.

"We spent the whole night under a sturdy desk," Lova Jeanne, a mother from Morondava told one newspaper.

Fanele weakened on Wednesday as it passed over the southern highlands before turning back towards the Indian Ocean on Thursday. - Sapa-dpa

http://www.news24.com/News24/Africa/New ... 19,00.html

[Crostorm]

Translated news from Clicanoo.

http://translate.google.hr/translate?u= ... r&ie=UTF-8

[HURAKAN]

[Crostorm]

Flooded area Madagascar

Modis

[Crostorm]

370
WTIO30 FMEE 230026

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 20/7/20082009
1.A EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 7 (EX-FANELE)

2.A POSITION 2009/01/23 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 27.8S / 51.8E
(TWENTY SEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 15 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : /S
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 50 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 200 SE: 420 SO: 420 NO: 120

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/01/23 12 UTC: 30.1S/53.1E, MAX WIND=035KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
24H: 2009/01/24 00 UTC: 31.8S/54.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
36H: 2009/01/24 12 UTC: 33.0S/57.2E, MAX WIND=025KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
48H: 2009/01/25 00 UTC: 33.6S/58.8E, MAX WIND=020KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
60H: 2009/01/25 12 UTC: 34.5S/60.2E, MAX WIND=020KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
72H: 2009/01/26 00 UTC: 36.9S/61.8E, MAX WIND=020KT, EXTRATROPICAL.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
CLASSICAL IMAGERY (IR, WATER VAPOR) SUGGEST THAT FANELE IS NOW AN
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM. RESIDUAL DEEP CONVECTION THAT WAS LOCATED IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI CIRCLE HAS VANISHED DURING THE NIGHT.
HOWEVER, THIS SYSTEM STILL PRODUCE SOME STRONG WINDS AS SHOWN BY THE
ASCAT PASS AROUND 18Z. A WIDE CENTRAL AREA OF RELATIVELY WEAK WINDS
(DIAMETER ABOUT 40 TO 50 NM) SURROUNDED BY A CROWN OF STRONG WINDS CAN
STILL BE DEPICTED.

MOST OF THE AVAILABLE NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST
TRACK. WINDS SHOULD PROGRESSIVELY ABATE ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK BEFORE
THE SYSTEM MERGES WITH A MIDLAT TROUGH AT THE END OF THE FORECAST.

[CrazyC83]

Yeah, I'd say it is extratropical now as the deep convection is almost gone.

[somethingfunny]

Flooded area Madagascar

Modis

That looks horrific.

[Chacor]

WTIO30 FMEE 230644

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 21/7/20082009
1.A EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 7 (EX-FANELE)

2.A POSITION 2009/01/23 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 29.3S / 52.0E
(TWENTY NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO DECIMAL ZERO
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : /
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 60 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 230 SE: 400 SO: 230 NO: 200

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/01/23 18 UTC: 30.9S/53.4E, MAX WIND=035KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
24H: 2009/01/24 06 UTC: 32.4S/55.6E, MAX WIND=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
36H: 2009/01/24 18 UTC: 33.4S/57.5E, MAX WIND=025KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
48H: 2009/01/25 06 UTC: 34.0S/59.1E, MAX WIND=025KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
60H: 2009/01/25 18 UTC: 35.3S/60.9E, MAX WIND=020KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
72H: 2009/01/26 06 UTC: 38.2S/63.5E, MAX WIND=020KT, EXTRATROPICAL.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
RESIDUAL DEEP CONVECTION IS STILL WEAKENING.
HOWEVER, THIS SYSTEM STILL PRODUCE SOME STRONG WINDS AS SHOWN BY THE
QUIKSCAT PASS AT 0315Z. A WIDE CENTRAL AREA OF RELATIVELY WEAK WINDS
(DIAMETER ABOUT 50 TO 60 NM) SURROUNDED BY A CROWN OF STRONG WINDS
EXTENDING IN THE SOUTHERN SECTOR IS DUE TO THE GRADIENT WITH SUBTROPICAL
HIGH PRESSURES.
MOST OF THE AVAILABLE NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST
TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD, AND THE SYSTEM SLOWING DOWN IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
WINDS SHOULD PROGRESSIVELY DECREASE ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK BEFORE THE
SYSTEM MERGES WITH A MID LAT TROUGH AT THE END OF THE FORECAST.

[Chacor]

Source: United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs - Integrated Regional Information Networks (IRIN)

Date: 22 Jan 2009


JOHANNESBURG , 22 January 2009 (IRIN) - Emergency assessment teams are scrambling to get an indication of the damage in Madagascar after tropical storm 'Eric' and cyclone 'Fanele' hit the Indian Ocean island in quick succession this week.

Fanele struck the western coast of Madagascar in the early hours of January 21, near the town of Morondava, according to local authorities, destroying buildings, flooding large areas and cutting off thousands of people.

On 19 January, "Eric affected 1,960 people, damaging 1,652 [buildings, mostly homes], caused one death and left 27 injured and 992 people without shelter," Dia Styvanley Soa, spokeswoman for the National Office for Natural Disasters Preparedness (BNGRC), told IRIN. The storm skirted the eastern coast of the world's fourth largest island with wind speeds of around 100km/h.

A helicopter has been dispatched to survey affected areas and authorities fear the worst as more information trickles in: "Fanele was definitely more intense than Eric and the damage it caused is very [severe]. The chief of the region of Menabe [where Morondava is situated] said Fanele entered in the morning and stayed for more than four hours - Morondava is destroyed by 80 percent," Soa said.

Fanele made landfall from the Mozambique Channel as a category 3 cyclone and swept through the southern part of Madagascar, gradually decreasing to a tropical storm before exiting to the Indian Ocean.

Not caught off-guard

With relief efforts already underway, Colonel Jean Rakotomalala, Executive Secretary of the BNGRC, stressed the importance of Madagascar's recent investments in disaster preparedness. The focus has shifted from being reactive, and limited to response and recovery after an event, to a more comprehensive approach centred on preparedness.

"We can see the payoff of prepositioning stocks ahead of the cyclone season," Rakotomalala said in a statement on 21 January. "This has made it possible to help victims immediately, in anticipation of more assistance from [other areas].

Besides prepositioning relief items, "We have given more responsibility to the regions by developing regional contingency plans. It's a tool for them to know what to do within 24 and 48 hours after a catastrophe," Soa said.

The BNGRC and its partners - UN agencies, NGOs and civil society organisations - also conducted emergency simulation exercises in various parts of the country.

"We have prepared ourselves well ... the training and sensitisation of people [at local level] has continued, but we also know that situation can be beyond our capacity."

Not out of the ordinary

Around 70 percent of Madagascar's population live on less than a dollar a day and extreme weather events are part of the island's history. The cyclone season usually kicks off in December and runs through April, when storms hit some of the poorest regions in the country.

In 2008 over 100 people died when Madagascar was hit by cyclones Fame, Jokwe and Ivan. The powerful winds, heavy rains and flooding affected over 340,000 people, of whom 190,000 lost their homes.

2007 was the worst year on record, with six cyclones affecting nearly half a million people, mainly in the central and northern parts of the island; in the parched south drought has persisted for several years.

Temperatures in the Indian Ocean are well above average, according to the US National Aeronautics and Space Administration, and meteorologists are predicting that 2009 may be a particularly bad year.

http://www.reliefweb.int/rw/rwb.nsf/db9 ... 000019-MDG

[Chacor]

http://www.reliefweb.int/rw/rwb.nsf/db9 ... 000019-MDG

Plusieurs agglomérations à moitié inondées, des centaines de logements détruits, 2600 sans-abri, un mort et des dizaines de blessés : tel est le bilan du passage du cyclone tropical Fanele dans le centre ouest de Madagascar. Selon les responsables de l'Office national de gestion des catastrophes, repris jeudi par les quotidiens locaux, de fortes pluies et des vents violents se sont abattus sur la zone côtière autour de la localité touristique de Morondava. En vertu des premiers chiffres fournis par les services de secours, le passage du cyclone dans la ville a détruit ou provoqué l'effondrement de 80% des bâtiments. Des centres d'accueil ont été aménagés dans les églises, les écoles et les hôpitaux de plusieurs villages pour y accueillir les sans-abri. Les dirigeants de l'Office national de gestion des catastrophes ont indiqué que des opérations ont été mises en œuvre pour rétablir l'eau courante et l'électricité dans 80.000 habitations. Après s'être déplacé de mercredi à jeudi vers une région montagneuse, située dans le Sud de Madagascar, Fanele a regagné l'Océan Indien.

2,600 homeless; 1 dead; dozens injured; 80% of buildings damaged or destroyed in Morondava; National Office for Natural Disasters Preparedness working to restore clean water and electricity to 80,000 homes.

[HURAKAN]

[Crostorm]

227
WTIO30 FMEE 231209

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 22/7/20082009
1.A EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 7 (EX-FANELE)

2.A POSITION 2009/01/23 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 30.8S / 53.0E
(THIRTY DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 14 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : /
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 240 SE: 300 SO: 200 NO: 200

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/01/24 00 UTC: 32.6S/55.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
24H: 2009/01/24 12 UTC: 34.0S/57.6E, MAX WIND=025KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
36H: 2009/01/25 00 UTC: 34.8S/59.3E, MAX WIND=020KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
48H: 2009/01/25 12 UTC: 35.8S/61.0E, MAX WIND=020KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
60H: 2009/01/26 00 UTC: 37.1S/62.4E, MAX WIND=020KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
72H: 2009/01/26 12 UTC: 40.0S/65.0E, MAX WIND=020KT, EXTRATROPICAL.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
RESIDUAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED TO THE SYSTEM HAS CONSIDERABLY
WEAKENED AND THE LLCC IS NOW FULLY EXPOSED, YET STILL RATHER WELL DEFINED
..
HOWEVER, THIS SYSTEM STILL PRODUCE SOME STRONG WINDS AS SHOWN BY THE
ASCAT DATA AT 0520Z. THE SYSTEM SHOWS A WIND STRUCTURE WITH A BROAD
CENTRAL AREA OF WEAKER WINDS (DIAMETER ABOUT 60 TO 80 NM) SURROUNDED BY A
RING OF STRONGER WINDS WHICH EXTENDS FURTHER IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
QUADRANT, DUE TO THE GRA
DIENT WITH SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.
MOST OF THE AVAILABLE NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
SOUTHEASTWARD FORECAST TRACK AND THE SLOWDOWN IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS,
BEFORE THE SYSTEM MERGES WITH A MID LATITUDES TROUGH AT THE END OF THE
FORECAST. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK, AS
THE SYSTEM FILLS UP.


THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM, WHICH IS NOW MONITORED WITH THE
GMDSS BULLETINS FQIO20.