NW Australia: Invest 92S - Discussion

[wyq614]

IDW10800
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK FOR NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA
Issued at 2:02pm WDT on Wednesday the 11th of February 2009
For the area south of LATITUDE 10 SOUTH between LONGITUDES 110 - 125 EAST

A weak low 1002 hPa has formed in the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf near 13 S 128 E and
is expected to move westwards near the north Kimberley coast. Numerical guidance
is suggesting that this low should move west of 125E during Thursday. The system
is unlikely to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours but it is
possible it could reach cyclone intensity late on Friday or during Saturday.

The likelihood of a tropical cyclone developing in the outlook region in the
next three days is:
Thursday : Low
Friday : Mod
Saturday : High

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDW10800.shtml

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK FOR NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA
Issued at 2:00pm WDT on Thursday the 12th of February 2009
For the area south of LATITUDE 10 SOUTH between LONGITUDES 110 - 125 EAST

A weak tropical low [1002 hPa] lies off the west Kimberley coast and is likely
to continue to move in a generally west southwest direction in the next 24 to 48
hours. It is unlikely to reach tropical cyclone intensity during Friday. It has
some potential to develop into a tropical cyclone late on Saturday or more
likely during Sunday.

There are no other lows of interest in the area and none are likely to develop
during the outlook period.

The likelihood of a tropical cyclone developing in the outlook region in the
next three days is:
Friday : Low
Saturday : Mod
Sunday : High
** NOTE: Development potential is an estimate of the probability of **
** tropical cyclone development within a 24 hour period. **
** LOW = 10% or less MODERATE = 20-40% HIGH = 50% or more **

[Crostorm]

[Cookie]

its starting to look better.

[Crostorm]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.8S
121.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.4S 122.5E, APPROXIMATELY 320 NM
NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA. RECENT ANIMATED RADAR FROM
BROOME, AUSTRALIA, INDICATES THAT A LOW LEVEL CIRULATION CENTER
(LLCC) HAS MOVED OVER WATER. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK CONVECTION
REMOVED THE LLCC TO THE EAST. THE LLCC IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE,
BUT IMPROVING, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE CIRULATION IS UNDER
FAVORABLE OUTFLOW CONDITIONS ALOFT. WIND SPEEDS ARE BASED ON SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO
15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.

[Crostorm]

[Crostorm]

IDW10800
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK FOR NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA
Issued at 10:00am WDT on Friday the 13th of February 2009
For the area south of LATITUDE 10 SOUTH between LONGITUDES 110 - 125 EAST

A weak tropical low now lies well off the west Kimberley coast near 14.5S 116.5E
at 9am WDT. It is likely to move in a generally west southwest direction in the
next 24 to 48 hours and is not likely to affect the coast. It is unlikely to
reach tropical cyclone intensity during Saturday but has some potential to
develop into a tropical cyclone on Sunday or Monday.

There are no other significant lows expected to develop during the outlook
period.

The likelihood of a tropical cyclone developing in the outlook region in the
next three days is:
Saturday : Low
Sunday : Moderate
Monday : Moderate

** NOTE: Development potential is an estimate of the probability of **
** tropical cyclone development within a 24 hour period. **
** LOW = 10% or less MODERATE = 20-40% HIGH = 50% or more **

[HURAKAN]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.8S
121.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.4S 122.5E, APPROXIMATELY 320 NM
NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA. RECENT ANIMATED RADAR FROM
BROOME, AUSTRALIA, INDICATES THAT A LOW LEVEL CIRULATION CENTER
(LLCC) HAS MOVED OVER WATER. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK CONVECTION
REMOVED THE LLCC TO THE EAST. THE LLCC IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE,
BUT IMPROVING, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE CIRULATION IS UNDER
FAVORABLE OUTFLOW CONDITIONS ALOFT. WIND SPEEDS ARE BASED ON SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO
15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.

[Crostorm]

[HURAKAN]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.0S
116.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.0S 115.0E, APPROXIMATELY 255 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 151401Z AMSU IMAGE DEPICT A MONSOON DEPRESSION LOW
PRESSURE AREA WITH MULTIPLE FULLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTERS (LLCC) ROTATING AROUND A CENTROID. IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A
PERSISTENT AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE CONVERGENT SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LOW. A 150950Z QUIKSCAT IMAGE INDICATED 15-20 KNOT
CORE WINDS WITH STRONGER (25-30 KNOT) WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY. THE LEARMONTH RADAR SHOWS WEAK BANDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST
AND SOUTH QUADRANTS WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS JUST NORTH
OF EXMOUTH. THE BROAD LLCC IS LOCATED NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AXIS AND IS UNDER STRONG EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE LLCC IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN WITHIN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS,
THEREFORE, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.

[HURAKAN]

Inland.