UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 22 FEB 2009 Time : 130000 UTC
Lat : 16:37:33 S Lon : 78:16:26 E
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.7 / 983.1mb/ 59.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
3.7 3.7 3.7
Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.3mb
Center Temp : -82.4C Cloud Region Temp : -78.2C
Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION
Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION
Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... t/adt.html
SWIO: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 9 (EX-HINA) (TC 16S)
Moderator: S2k Moderators
-
senorpepr
- Military Met/Moderator
- Posts: 12542
- Age: 41
- Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
- Location: Mackenbach, Germany
- Contact:
Re: SWIO: Severe Tropical Storm HINA (TC 16S)
WTIO30 FMEE 221811
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 7/9/20082009
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (HINA)
2.A POSITION 2009/02/22 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.6S / 78.7E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL SEVEN
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 9 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/4.0 /D 1.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 980 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 130 SE: 280 SO: 280 NO: 130
50 KT NE: 040 SE: 040 SO: 040 NO: 040
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/02/23 06 UTC: 18.3S/78.4E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
24H: 2009/02/23 18 UTC: 18.7S/77.4E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
36H: 2009/02/24 06 UTC: 19.3S/76.2E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
48H: 2009/02/24 18 UTC: 20.0S/75.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
60H: 2009/02/25 06 UTC: 20.8S/73.6E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
72H: 2009/02/25 18 UTC: 21.7S/71.9E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=4.0-
HINA IS UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT ALLOWS LOW WINDSHEAR. UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS RATHER GOOD: EXCELLENT OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF HINA
DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST BUT MORE LIMITED
OVER THE NORTHERN SECTOR. AT LOW LEVELS, INFLOWS ARE ESTABLISHED.
HOWEVER NORTHEASTERLY WINDSHEAR SHOULD INCREASE A LITTLE BIT WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 HOURS AND MAINTAIN FOR THE WHOLE FORECAST PERIOD.
UNDER THE PERSISTENCY INFLUENCE OF SHEAR AND THE ARRIVAL OVER AREA OF
LOWER OCEANIC HEAT CONTAIN AT THE END OF THE FORCAST PERIOD, SOME SLOW
WEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTER TOMORROW.
STEERING FLOW SEEMS TO BE A MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST OF HINA.
CONSEQUENTLY, TRACK IS TOWARD THE SOUTH,
THEN THIS RIDGE SHOULD EXTEND TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM AND GIVE A
MORE SOUTHWESTWARDS COMPONENT TO THE TRACK.
THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON THE CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE NWP MODELS.
.
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 22 FEB 2009 Time : 183000 UTC
Lat : 17:13:36 S Lon : 78:15:15 E
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.8 / 981.3mb/ 61.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
3.8 3.8 3.8
Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.1mb
Center Temp : -80.6C Cloud Region Temp : -79.7C
Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION
Positioning Method : LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION
Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
****************************************************
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 7/9/20082009
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (HINA)
2.A POSITION 2009/02/22 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.6S / 78.7E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL SEVEN
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 9 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/4.0 /D 1.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 980 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 130 SE: 280 SO: 280 NO: 130
50 KT NE: 040 SE: 040 SO: 040 NO: 040
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/02/23 06 UTC: 18.3S/78.4E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
24H: 2009/02/23 18 UTC: 18.7S/77.4E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
36H: 2009/02/24 06 UTC: 19.3S/76.2E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
48H: 2009/02/24 18 UTC: 20.0S/75.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
60H: 2009/02/25 06 UTC: 20.8S/73.6E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
72H: 2009/02/25 18 UTC: 21.7S/71.9E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=4.0-
HINA IS UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT ALLOWS LOW WINDSHEAR. UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS RATHER GOOD: EXCELLENT OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF HINA
DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST BUT MORE LIMITED
OVER THE NORTHERN SECTOR. AT LOW LEVELS, INFLOWS ARE ESTABLISHED.
HOWEVER NORTHEASTERLY WINDSHEAR SHOULD INCREASE A LITTLE BIT WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 HOURS AND MAINTAIN FOR THE WHOLE FORECAST PERIOD.
UNDER THE PERSISTENCY INFLUENCE OF SHEAR AND THE ARRIVAL OVER AREA OF
LOWER OCEANIC HEAT CONTAIN AT THE END OF THE FORCAST PERIOD, SOME SLOW
WEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTER TOMORROW.
STEERING FLOW SEEMS TO BE A MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST OF HINA.
CONSEQUENTLY, TRACK IS TOWARD THE SOUTH,
THEN THIS RIDGE SHOULD EXTEND TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM AND GIVE A
MORE SOUTHWESTWARDS COMPONENT TO THE TRACK.
THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON THE CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE NWP MODELS.
.
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 22 FEB 2009 Time : 183000 UTC
Lat : 17:13:36 S Lon : 78:15:15 E
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.8 / 981.3mb/ 61.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
3.8 3.8 3.8
Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.1mb
Center Temp : -80.6C Cloud Region Temp : -79.7C
Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION
Positioning Method : LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION
Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
****************************************************
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WTIO30 FMEE 230012
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 8/9/20082009
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (HINA)
2.A POSITION 2009/02/23 AT 0000 UTC :
18.5S / 78.6E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL SIX
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH 8 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/4.0 /D
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 980 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 130 SE: 280 SO: 280 NO: 130
50 KT NE: 040 SE: 040 SO: 040 NO: 040
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/02/23 12 UTC: 19.1S/77.9E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
24H: 2009/02/24 00 UTC: 19.9S/76.9E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
36H: 2009/02/24 12 UTC: 20.8S/75.7E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
48H: 2009/02/25 00 UTC: 21.8S/74.2E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
60H: 2009/02/25 12 UTC: 22.9S/72.7E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
72H: 2009/02/26 00 UTC: 24.1S/70.8E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=4.0-
HOWEVER NORTHEASTERLY WINDSHEAR IS GOING TO INCREASE A LITTLE BIT DUE TO
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST BUT MORE LIMITED OVER THE
NORTHERN SECTOR.
AT LOW LEVELS, INFLOWS ARE ESTABLISHED.
UNDER THE PERSISTENCY INFLUENCE OF SHEAR AND THE ARRIVAL OVER AREA OF
LOWER OCEANIC HEAT CONTAIN AT THE END OF THE FORCAST PERIOD, SOME SLOW
WEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTER TOMORROW.
STEERING FLOW SEEMS TO BE A MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST OF HINA.
CONSEQUENTLY, TRACK IS TOWARD THE SOUTH,
THEN THIS RIDGE SHOULD EXTEND TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM AND GIVE A
MORE SOUTHWESTWARDS COMPONENT TO THE TRACK.
THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON THE CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE NWP MODELS.
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 8/9/20082009
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (HINA)
2.A POSITION 2009/02/23 AT 0000 UTC :
18.5S / 78.6E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL SIX
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH 8 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/4.0 /D
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 980 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 130 SE: 280 SO: 280 NO: 130
50 KT NE: 040 SE: 040 SO: 040 NO: 040
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/02/23 12 UTC: 19.1S/77.9E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
24H: 2009/02/24 00 UTC: 19.9S/76.9E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
36H: 2009/02/24 12 UTC: 20.8S/75.7E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
48H: 2009/02/25 00 UTC: 21.8S/74.2E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
60H: 2009/02/25 12 UTC: 22.9S/72.7E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
72H: 2009/02/26 00 UTC: 24.1S/70.8E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=4.0-
HOWEVER NORTHEASTERLY WINDSHEAR IS GOING TO INCREASE A LITTLE BIT DUE TO
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST BUT MORE LIMITED OVER THE
NORTHERN SECTOR.
AT LOW LEVELS, INFLOWS ARE ESTABLISHED.
UNDER THE PERSISTENCY INFLUENCE OF SHEAR AND THE ARRIVAL OVER AREA OF
LOWER OCEANIC HEAT CONTAIN AT THE END OF THE FORCAST PERIOD, SOME SLOW
WEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTER TOMORROW.
STEERING FLOW SEEMS TO BE A MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST OF HINA.
CONSEQUENTLY, TRACK IS TOWARD THE SOUTH,
THEN THIS RIDGE SHOULD EXTEND TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM AND GIVE A
MORE SOUTHWESTWARDS COMPONENT TO THE TRACK.
THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON THE CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE NWP MODELS.
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
Re: SWIO: Severe Tropical Storm HINA (TC 16S)
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HINA) WARNING NR 004
WTXS31 PGTW 230900
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HINA) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
230600Z --- NEAR 19.2S 78.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.2S 78.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 20.5S 77.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 21.7S 76.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 22.8S 74.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 24.4S 73.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
230900Z POSITION NEAR 19.5S 78.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (HINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 785 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AHEAD OF A LONGWAVE
TROUGH AND RESTRICTED EQUATORWARD VENTING AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
BUILDS TO THE WEST. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES,
AND FMEE, RANGING FROM 55 TO 65 KNOTS, REFLECT THIS WEAKENING.
POSITION CONFIDENCE IS POOR WITH A LARGE SPREAD IN FIXES AMONG
REPORTING AGENCIES, THOUGH A 230014Z 37H SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE GIVES
GOOD INDICATION OF THE LOW LEVEL POSITION 6 HOURS PRIOR. POLEWARD
OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED SLIGHTLY AS THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO TRACK
POLEWARD TOWARDS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A WESTWARD-BUILDING
STEERING RIDGE. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY
INCREASE AS TC HINA NEARS THIS LONGWAVE TROUGH, BUT SUSTAINED
POLEWARD OUFLOW AND FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL OFFSET
RAPID WEAKENING. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z
IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 232100Z AND 240900Z.
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-
senorpepr
- Military Met/Moderator
- Posts: 12542
- Age: 41
- Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
- Location: Mackenbach, Germany
- Contact:
WTIO30 FMEE 231227
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 10/9/20082009
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (HINA)
2.A POSITION 2009/02/23 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.5S / 77.9E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL NINE
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH 7 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.5 /W 1.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 180 SE: 380 SO: 380 NO: 130
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/02/24 00 UTC: 20.5S/76.8E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
24H: 2009/02/24 12 UTC: 20.8S/75.1E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
36H: 2009/02/25 00 UTC: 21.1S/73.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
48H: 2009/02/25 12 UTC: 21.8S/71.7E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
60H: 2009/02/26 00 UTC: 23.4S/70.0E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
72H: 2009/02/26 12 UTC: 26.0S/68.9E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=3.0, CI=3.5-
THE SYSTEM IS MODERATELY NORTHLY SHEARED. THE LLCC IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED
NORTH OF THE DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
EQUATORWARD LOW LEVEL INFLOW WILL DECREASE PROGRESSIVELY, BUT THE TRADE
FLOW IS STILL GOOD.
UPPER LEVELS WIND SHEAR WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS,
AND THE POLARWARD DIVERGENCE REMAINS GOOD.
THE SYSTEM TRACK IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS LINKED TO THE
MID-TROPOSPHERE RIDGE IN THE SOUTH-EAST.
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN PROGRESSIVELY.
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 23 FEB 2009 Time : 160000 UTC
Lat : 20:15:53 S Lon : 77:35:53 E
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.2 / 989.4mb/ 49.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
2.8 2.6 2.6
Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +1.2mb
Center Temp : -53.4C Cloud Region Temp : -51.1C
Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION
Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION
Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : FLAG
****************************************************
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 10/9/20082009
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (HINA)
2.A POSITION 2009/02/23 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.5S / 77.9E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL NINE
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH 7 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.5 /W 1.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 180 SE: 380 SO: 380 NO: 130
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/02/24 00 UTC: 20.5S/76.8E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
24H: 2009/02/24 12 UTC: 20.8S/75.1E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
36H: 2009/02/25 00 UTC: 21.1S/73.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
48H: 2009/02/25 12 UTC: 21.8S/71.7E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
60H: 2009/02/26 00 UTC: 23.4S/70.0E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
72H: 2009/02/26 12 UTC: 26.0S/68.9E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=3.0, CI=3.5-
THE SYSTEM IS MODERATELY NORTHLY SHEARED. THE LLCC IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED
NORTH OF THE DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
EQUATORWARD LOW LEVEL INFLOW WILL DECREASE PROGRESSIVELY, BUT THE TRADE
FLOW IS STILL GOOD.
UPPER LEVELS WIND SHEAR WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS,
AND THE POLARWARD DIVERGENCE REMAINS GOOD.
THE SYSTEM TRACK IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS LINKED TO THE
MID-TROPOSPHERE RIDGE IN THE SOUTH-EAST.
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN PROGRESSIVELY.
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 23 FEB 2009 Time : 160000 UTC
Lat : 20:15:53 S Lon : 77:35:53 E
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.2 / 989.4mb/ 49.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
2.8 2.6 2.6
Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +1.2mb
Center Temp : -53.4C Cloud Region Temp : -51.1C
Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION
Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION
Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : FLAG
****************************************************
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senorpepr
- Military Met/Moderator
- Posts: 12542
- Age: 41
- Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
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- Contact:
WTIO30 FMEE 231840
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 11/9/20082009
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (HINA)
2.A POSITION 2009/02/23 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.5S / 77.8E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : QUASI-STATIONARY
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/3.0 /W 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: SE: 450 SO: 600 NO:
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 850 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/02/24 06 UTC: 20.5S/76.2E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
24H: 2009/02/24 18 UTC: 21.4S/73.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
36H: 2009/02/25 06 UTC: 22.4S/71.9E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
48H: 2009/02/25 18 UTC: 24.0S/70.1E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
60H: 2009/02/26 06 UTC: 26.3S/68.5E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
72H: 2009/02/26 18 UTC: 27.7S/68.0E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=2.5, CI=3.0
THE SYSTEM KEEPS ON WEAKENING AND WINDS HAS BEEN CALIBRATED ACCORDING TO
THE LAST QUICKSCAT PASS.
STONG UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH POSITION BASED ON LAST MW IMAGERY (SSMIS OF
12:48Z) AND NEAR IR IMAGERY.
EQUATORWARD LOW LEVEL INFLOW WILL DECREASE PROGRESSIVELY, BUT THE TRADE
FLOW IS STILL GOOD.
UPPER LEVELS WIND SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN PERSISTENT ALTHOUGH POLEWARDS
DIVERGENCE REMAINS GOOD.
WITHIN A MORE LOW LEVEL STEERING FLOW, THE SYSTEM TRACK IS EXPECTED TO
RECURVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS LINKED TO THE RIDGE IN THE SOUTH-EAST AND THE
SOUTH.
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 23 FEB 2009 Time : 180000 UTC
Lat : 20:18:32 S Lon : 77:34:37 E
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.1 / 990.8mb/ 47.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
2.6 2.7 2.7
Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +1.2mb
Center Temp : -23.6C Cloud Region Temp : -34.7C
Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.46 ARC in MD GRAY
Positioning Method : LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION
Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : FLAG
****************************************************
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 11/9/20082009
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (HINA)
2.A POSITION 2009/02/23 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.5S / 77.8E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : QUASI-STATIONARY
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/3.0 /W 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: SE: 450 SO: 600 NO:
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 850 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/02/24 06 UTC: 20.5S/76.2E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
24H: 2009/02/24 18 UTC: 21.4S/73.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
36H: 2009/02/25 06 UTC: 22.4S/71.9E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
48H: 2009/02/25 18 UTC: 24.0S/70.1E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
60H: 2009/02/26 06 UTC: 26.3S/68.5E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
72H: 2009/02/26 18 UTC: 27.7S/68.0E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=2.5, CI=3.0
THE SYSTEM KEEPS ON WEAKENING AND WINDS HAS BEEN CALIBRATED ACCORDING TO
THE LAST QUICKSCAT PASS.
STONG UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH POSITION BASED ON LAST MW IMAGERY (SSMIS OF
12:48Z) AND NEAR IR IMAGERY.
EQUATORWARD LOW LEVEL INFLOW WILL DECREASE PROGRESSIVELY, BUT THE TRADE
FLOW IS STILL GOOD.
UPPER LEVELS WIND SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN PERSISTENT ALTHOUGH POLEWARDS
DIVERGENCE REMAINS GOOD.
WITHIN A MORE LOW LEVEL STEERING FLOW, THE SYSTEM TRACK IS EXPECTED TO
RECURVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS LINKED TO THE RIDGE IN THE SOUTH-EAST AND THE
SOUTH.
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 23 FEB 2009 Time : 180000 UTC
Lat : 20:18:32 S Lon : 77:34:37 E
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.1 / 990.8mb/ 47.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
2.6 2.7 2.7
Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +1.2mb
Center Temp : -23.6C Cloud Region Temp : -34.7C
Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.46 ARC in MD GRAY
Positioning Method : LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION
Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : FLAG
****************************************************
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senorpepr
- Military Met/Moderator
- Posts: 12542
- Age: 41
- Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
- Location: Mackenbach, Germany
- Contact:
WTXS31 PGTW 232100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HINA) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HINA) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
231800Z --- NEAR 20.2S 77.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.2S 77.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 21.2S 76.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 22.3S 75.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 23.9S 73.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
232100Z POSITION NEAR 20.5S 77.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (HINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 825 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AHEAD OF A
LONGWAVE TROUGH AND RESTRICTED EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THIS WEAKENING
TREND IS REFLECTED IN SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES,
AND FMEE WHICH RANGE FROM 35 TO 45 KNOTS. POSITION CONFIDENCE HAS
IMPROVED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, WITH THE CURRENT POSITION BASED
UPON A 231703Z AMSUB MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTING A PARTIALLY EXPOSED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING
IN FROM THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE STORM. THE CYCLONE WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A WESTWARD-
BUILDING STEERING RIDGE WHILE WEAKENING DUE TO STEADILY INCREASING
WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROUGH. TC 16S
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BELOW TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTH BY TAU 36.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 240900Z AND 242100Z.
//
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HINA) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HINA) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
231800Z --- NEAR 20.2S 77.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.2S 77.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 21.2S 76.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 22.3S 75.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 23.9S 73.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
232100Z POSITION NEAR 20.5S 77.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (HINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 825 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AHEAD OF A
LONGWAVE TROUGH AND RESTRICTED EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THIS WEAKENING
TREND IS REFLECTED IN SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES,
AND FMEE WHICH RANGE FROM 35 TO 45 KNOTS. POSITION CONFIDENCE HAS
IMPROVED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, WITH THE CURRENT POSITION BASED
UPON A 231703Z AMSUB MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTING A PARTIALLY EXPOSED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING
IN FROM THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE STORM. THE CYCLONE WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A WESTWARD-
BUILDING STEERING RIDGE WHILE WEAKENING DUE TO STEADILY INCREASING
WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROUGH. TC 16S
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BELOW TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTH BY TAU 36.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 240900Z AND 242100Z.
//
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
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- Contact:
401
WTIO30 FMEE 240028
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 12/9/20082009
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 9 (EX-HINA)
2.A POSITION 2009/02/24 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.5S / 76.6E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL SIX DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 9 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 1.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: SE: 600 SO: 450 NO:
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/02/24 12 UTC: 20.2S/74.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
24H: 2009/02/25 00 UTC: 22.0S/71.6E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
36H: 2009/02/25 12 UTC: 24.1S/69.8E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
48H: 2009/02/26 00 UTC: 26.1S/68.3E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
60H: 2009/02/26 12 UTC: 27.6S/67.4E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
72H: 2009/02/27 00 UTC: 29.1S/66.9E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=2.0-, CI=2.5
THE SYSTEM KEEPS ON QUITE STRONG WEAKENING TREND WITH A RESIDUAL
CONVECTION NOW LOCATED AT MORE THAN 120 NM FROM THE LOW LEVEL CENTER THAT
IS FIXED MORE ACCURATELY ACCORDING TO NEAR IR IMAGERY AND LAST MW (METOP
, NOAA 18 AND AQUA)
ACCORDING TO THIS DATA, SYSTEM HAS MADE A SHARP TURN TONIGHT AND HAS
ACCELERATED WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS (CURRENT MOTION AND SPEED: 260o/09KT)
WITHIN A MORE LOW LEVEL STEERING FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHALLOW SYSTEM
..
PRESENT TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS BETWEEN EUROPEAN NWP
MODELS. THE US CONSENSUS SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE BIT SOUTHWARDS.
PERSISTENT MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WINDSHEAR SHOULD PREVENT ANY
REINTENSIFICATION. DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD, SYSTEM ALSO ARRIVES OVER
COOLER SST.
WTIO30 FMEE 240028
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 12/9/20082009
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 9 (EX-HINA)
2.A POSITION 2009/02/24 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.5S / 76.6E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL SIX DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 9 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 1.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: SE: 600 SO: 450 NO:
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/02/24 12 UTC: 20.2S/74.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
24H: 2009/02/25 00 UTC: 22.0S/71.6E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
36H: 2009/02/25 12 UTC: 24.1S/69.8E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
48H: 2009/02/26 00 UTC: 26.1S/68.3E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
60H: 2009/02/26 12 UTC: 27.6S/67.4E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
72H: 2009/02/27 00 UTC: 29.1S/66.9E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=2.0-, CI=2.5
THE SYSTEM KEEPS ON QUITE STRONG WEAKENING TREND WITH A RESIDUAL
CONVECTION NOW LOCATED AT MORE THAN 120 NM FROM THE LOW LEVEL CENTER THAT
IS FIXED MORE ACCURATELY ACCORDING TO NEAR IR IMAGERY AND LAST MW (METOP
, NOAA 18 AND AQUA)
ACCORDING TO THIS DATA, SYSTEM HAS MADE A SHARP TURN TONIGHT AND HAS
ACCELERATED WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS (CURRENT MOTION AND SPEED: 260o/09KT)
WITHIN A MORE LOW LEVEL STEERING FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHALLOW SYSTEM
..
PRESENT TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS BETWEEN EUROPEAN NWP
MODELS. THE US CONSENSUS SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE BIT SOUTHWARDS.
PERSISTENT MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WINDSHEAR SHOULD PREVENT ANY
REINTENSIFICATION. DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD, SYSTEM ALSO ARRIVES OVER
COOLER SST.
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senorpepr
- Military Met/Moderator
- Posts: 12542
- Age: 41
- Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
- Location: Mackenbach, Germany
- Contact:
WTIO30 FMEE 241818
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 15/9/20082009
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 9 (EX-HINA)
2.A POSITION 2009/02/24 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.7S / 72.9E
(TWENTY DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY TWO DECIMAL NINE DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 13 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /W 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: SE: 600 SO: 600 NO:
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/02/25 06 UTC: 22.1S/70.5E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
24H: 2009/02/25 18 UTC: 24.4S/69.0E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
36H: 2009/02/26 06 UTC: 26.7S/68.2E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
48H: 2009/02/26 18 UTC: 28.8S/67.7E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
60H: 2009/02/27 06 UTC: 30.7S/67.6E, MAX WIND=030KT, BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.
72H: 2009/02/27 18 UTC: 32.1S/68.4E, MAX WIND=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T AND CI=2.0
REBUILDING DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NEAR THE CENTER OVER THE RECENT PAST
HOURS HAS STOPPED THE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM BUT THUNDERY ACTIVITY IS
THROWED AGAIN FAR IN THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
LLCC IS AGAIN FULLY EXPOSED ON INFRARED METEOSAT7 IMAGERY.
THE SYSTEM MOTION HAS INCREASE A BIT, AND ITS TRACK IS STILL
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS, ITS STEERING FLOW IS NOW THE NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY LOW
LEVELS FLOW DUE TO THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DOWNGRADE (NO MORE FEEDING
EQUATORWARD, MODERATE NORTH-WESTERLY WIND SHEAR ALOFT, ARRIVAL OVER
COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES), ALSO THE SYSTEM DOESN'T HAVE ANY
POTENTIAL FOR REINTENSIFICATION. ITS TRACK WILL CURVE SOUTHWARD AND THEN
SOUTHEASTWARD.
.
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 15/9/20082009
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 9 (EX-HINA)
2.A POSITION 2009/02/24 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.7S / 72.9E
(TWENTY DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY TWO DECIMAL NINE DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 13 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /W 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: SE: 600 SO: 600 NO:
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/02/25 06 UTC: 22.1S/70.5E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
24H: 2009/02/25 18 UTC: 24.4S/69.0E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
36H: 2009/02/26 06 UTC: 26.7S/68.2E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
48H: 2009/02/26 18 UTC: 28.8S/67.7E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
60H: 2009/02/27 06 UTC: 30.7S/67.6E, MAX WIND=030KT, BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.
72H: 2009/02/27 18 UTC: 32.1S/68.4E, MAX WIND=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T AND CI=2.0
REBUILDING DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NEAR THE CENTER OVER THE RECENT PAST
HOURS HAS STOPPED THE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM BUT THUNDERY ACTIVITY IS
THROWED AGAIN FAR IN THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
LLCC IS AGAIN FULLY EXPOSED ON INFRARED METEOSAT7 IMAGERY.
THE SYSTEM MOTION HAS INCREASE A BIT, AND ITS TRACK IS STILL
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS, ITS STEERING FLOW IS NOW THE NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY LOW
LEVELS FLOW DUE TO THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DOWNGRADE (NO MORE FEEDING
EQUATORWARD, MODERATE NORTH-WESTERLY WIND SHEAR ALOFT, ARRIVAL OVER
COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES), ALSO THE SYSTEM DOESN'T HAVE ANY
POTENTIAL FOR REINTENSIFICATION. ITS TRACK WILL CURVE SOUTHWARD AND THEN
SOUTHEASTWARD.
.
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