SIO: JADE - Moderate Tropical Storm (26S)

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

WTXS31 PGTW 080300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (JADE) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (JADE) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z --- NEAR 21.4S 49.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.4S 49.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 22.5S 48.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 23.3S 48.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 24.2S 48.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 24.9S 48.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
080300Z POSITION NEAR 21.7S 48.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S (JADE) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 370 NM WEST
OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM 35 TO 55 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES, AND FMEE. SYSTEM
INTENSITY IS LIMITED BY ITS PROXIMITY TO LAND, WITH CONVECTION WEAK
AND FLARING ON THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. TC 26S IS TRACKING SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MERIDIONALLY ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE EAST. TC 26S IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE RIDGE AXIS NEAR
TAU 48 AND SUBSEQUENTLY BEGIN TURNING TO A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK.
TC 26S IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 36 BEFORE
ENCOUNTERING INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, RESULTING IN A
WEAKENING TREND AFTER TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
080000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 081500Z AND 090300Z.

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

599
WTIO30 FMEE 080613 RRA

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 17/12/20082009
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 12 (JADE)

2.A POSITION 2009/04/08 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.9S / 49.0E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY NINE DECIMAL ZERO
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/3.5 /S 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 987 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 40 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 500 SE: 300 SO: 200 NO: 200

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 250 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/04/08 18 UTC: 22.6S/48.5E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
24H: 2009/04/09 06 UTC: 23.2S/47.6E, MAX WIND=030KT, OVERLAND.
36H: 2009/04/09 18 UTC: 23.9S/47.1E, MAX WIND=025KT, OVERLAND.
48H: 2009/04/10 06 UTC: 24.9S/47.5E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
60H: 2009/04/10 18 UTC: 26.8S/49.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.
72H: 2009/04/11 06 UTC: 29.0S/51.6E, MAX WIND=030KT, BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=3.5-

[HURAKAN]

SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (JADE) WARNING NR 009
WTXS31 PGTW 081500
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (JADE) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z --- NEAR 22.1S 49.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.1S 49.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 22.9S 49.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 23.8S 50.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 24.7S 50.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 26.2S 52.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
081500Z POSITION NEAR 22.3S 49.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S (JADE) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NM WEST
OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED AN INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS
DESPITE MADAGASCAR'S CONTINUED DISRUPTION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC
FLOW AND LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW
AND FMEE RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 KNOTS. STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW SHOULD
SUSTAIN A 4O TO 45 KNOT CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT TRACKS
POLEWARD ALONG THE MERIDIONALLY-ORIENTED PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING
RIDGE TO THE EAST. BEYOND TAU 24 THE SYSTEM WILL TREND MORE TOWARDS
THE SOUTHEAST AND WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE OUT AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. VWS WILL ALSO HEIGHTEN AS THE TROUGH PUSHES
THROUGH TO THE EAST, AND WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO FALL BELOW SUSTAINABLE LEVELS NEAR
TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 090300Z AND 091500Z.

[HURAKAN]

[Cookie]

I Can't find the link at the moment but Im hearing 800 homless from this system.

[Chacor]

WTIO30 FMEE 090020

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 20/12/20082009
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 12 (JADE)

2.A POSITION 2009/04/09 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.6S / 49.8E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY NINE DECIMAL EIGHT
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 55 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 150 SE: 400 SO: 250 NO: 120

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/04/09 12 UTC: 23.7S/50.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
24H: 2009/04/10 00 UTC: 25.0S/50.9E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
36H: 2009/04/10 12 UTC: 26.8S/52.0E, MAX WIND=035KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL.
48H: 2009/04/11 00 UTC: 29.6S/54.4E, MAX WIND=040KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL.
60H: 2009/04/11 12 UTC: 33.7S/56.9E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
72H: 2009/04/12 00 UTC: 38.0S/59.1E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=2.0+, CI=2.5+.
THE SYSTEM IS NOW TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARDS, IT IS
EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE PROGRESIVELY TOWARDS THIS DIRECTION.

THE NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS CLEARLY INCREASED,
CONVECTION
IS SWEPT IN THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CIRCULATION, AND THE LOW LEVEL
CENTER IS NOW VISIBLE ON THE NORHWESTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION.

THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GO ON WEAKENING UNDERGOING THIS STRONG
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, TRACKING OVER COOLER SST, THEN EVACUATE WITH THE NEXT
TROUGH UP TO TAU 48 BECOMING EXTRA-TROPICAL.=

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

WTXS31 PGTW 090300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (JADE) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (JADE) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z --- NEAR 22.5S 49.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 22.5S 49.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 23.5S 50.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 24.5S 50.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 26.4S 52.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 29.0S 54.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
090300Z POSITION NEAR 22.8S 50.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S (JADE) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 325 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 26S HAS WEAKENED DUE TO STRONG VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION IS
BEING SHEARED TO THE EAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER. AN ANTICYCLONE
SOUTH OF THE TC IS BLOCKING ANY SIGNIFICANT POLEWARD MOTION. THE
DYNAMICAL AIDS ALMOST UNIFORMLY PREDICT A DEEP TROUGH MOVING OFF THE
COAST OF SOUTH AFRICA AFTER TAU 36. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
PUSH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE FURTHER EQUATORWARD, BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE,
AND ULTIMATELY CAPTURE TC 26S. TC 26S IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN BELOW
THE 35-KT THRESHOLD NEAR TAU 24, BUT WILL BEGIN TO RE-INTENSIFY
NEAR TAU 48, AS THE THE TC BEGINS TO TRANSITION TO EXTRATROPICAL.
THE STRONG VORTICITY FORECAST WITH THE TROUGH SUPPORTS AN EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION AND REINTENSIFICATION SCENARIO. THIS
REPRESENTS A CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE POSSIBILITY
STILL EXISTS THAT TC 26S MIGHT COMPLETELY DISSIPATE BEFORE IT CAN
ENCOUNTER THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. HOWEVER, THE MODELS AND SYNOPTIC
EVIDENCE SUGGEST OTHERWISE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
090000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 091500Z AND 100300Z.

[HURAKAN]

156
WTIO30 FMEE 090634

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 21/12/20082009
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12 (EX-JADE)

2.A POSITION 2009/04/09 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.6S / 49.8E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY NINE DECIMAL EIGHT
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-EAST 3 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/2.5 /W 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 30 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 060 SE: 250 SO: 150 NO: 040

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/04/09 18 UTC: 23.4S/50.7E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
24H: 2009/04/10 06 UTC: 24.6S/51.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.
36H: 2009/04/10 18 UTC: 26.5S/53.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.
48H: 2009/04/11 06 UTC: 29.8S/56.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
60H: 2009/04/11 18 UTC: 34.2S/56.7E, MAX WIND=045KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
72H: 2009/04/12 06 UTC: 38.4S/56.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=1.5+, CI=2.5
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEPS ON TRACKING GLOBALLY SOUTHEASTWARDS
SPEEDING UP TOWARDS A POLAR TROUGH WHICH WILL PROGRESSIVELY TAKING
PLACE
OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE BELT.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEGRADE AS THE
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR INCREASE AND AS SST DECREASE.
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN NEAR TH CENTER
BUT
REMAIN STRONG (LOCALLY REACHING GALE FORCE WINDS) IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
PRESSURES.
IT SHOULD BEYOND TAU 36 MAKING ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION, WINDS
COULD
STRENGHTEN AGAIN AS THE LOW MERGE WITH THE POLAR TROUGH.=

[HURAKAN]

Looking a lot better.

[HURAKAN]

09/2030 UTC 22.8S 51.0E T2.5/2.5 JADE -- Southwest Indian

[HURAKAN]

WTXS31 PGTW 092100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (JADE) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (JADE) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z --- NEAR 23.0S 50.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 23.0S 50.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 23.7S 51.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 24.8S 52.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 27.0S 55.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 30.9S 58.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
092100Z POSITION NEAR 23.2S 50.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S (JADE) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 26S IS TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENSION TO THE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE CYCLONE. LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGING
TO THE SOUTH IS PREVENTING THE SYSTEM FROM PROGRESSING MORE RAPIDLY
POLEWARD. PERSISTENT WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO
IMPACT THE SYSTEM, CONFINING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST HAS DRIVEN AN INCREASE IN DEEP
CONVECTION ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC AND A CONSEQUENT
SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE. TC 26S IS EXPECTED TO
PROGRESS SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHEAST BUILDS
EQUATORWARD TOWARD THE CYCLONE. BY TAU 24, THE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE TC 26S POLEWARD AND INFLUENCE
STORM STRUCTURE, INITIATING THE FIRST STAGE OF EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION. THE CYCLONE WILL ACCLERATE RAPIDLY POLEWARD AND COMPLETE
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AFTER TAU 24, INTENSIFYING THROUGH THE
TRANSITION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG UPPER-LEVEL JET SUPPORT. TC
26S WARNINGS WILL NOW BE ISSUED EVERY SIX HOURS UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 100300Z, 100900Z, 101500Z AND 102100Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

Going down again.

[HURAKAN]

WTXS31 PGTW 101500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (JADE) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (JADE) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z --- NEAR 24.9S 52.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
REPEAT POSIT: 24.9S 52.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 27.2S 54.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 31.2S 57.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
101500Z POSITION NEAR 25.5S 53.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S (JADE) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280 NM
SOUTHWEST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 26S HAS SEEN A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN TRACK
SPEED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AS THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF JADE HAS BEEN QUICKLY TRACKING EASTWARD AND DIGGING
EQUATORWARD. THE ENHANCED GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND THE SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF TC 26S IS THE LIKELY REASONING
FOR THIS INCREASE IN SPEED. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS STARTED TO
INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH WHICH HAS DECOUPLED
CONVECTION FROM THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE LLCC
HAS BECOME COMPLETELY EXPOSED BUT REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED. AS THE
LLCC BECOMES ABSORBED INTO THE TROUGH, DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THE LLCC WILL INTENSIFY AS AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
BY TAU 24. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN DECREASING OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS HELPING TO EXPEDITE THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION
PROCESS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 18 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z, 110300Z AND 110900Z.

[HURAKAN]

458
WTIO30 FMEE 101213

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 26/12/20082009
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 12 (JADE)

2.A POSITION 2009/04/10 AT 1200 UTC :
25.0S / 52.5E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /W 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 40 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 150 SE: 300 SO: 150 NO: 100

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/04/11 00 UTC: 27.1S/54.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.
24H: 2009/04/11 12 UTC: 32.4S/57.1E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
36H: 2009/04/12 00 UTC: 35.7S/57.8E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
48H: 2009/04/12 12 UTC: 39.4S/61.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
60H: 2009/04/13 00 UTC: 45.4S/66.8E DISSIPATING.
72H: 2009/04/13 12 UTC: DISSIPATED.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=2.5-, CI=2.5+

AFTER A RENEWAL OF ACTIVITY LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING, THE SYSTEM
UNDERGOES THE STRONG WESTERLY WINDSHEAR, AND ON THE LAST IMAGES, THE
LLCC
CENTRE IS EXPOSED IN THE WEST OF THE CONVECTION.
THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO ACCELERATE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARDS ; IT SHOULD
QUICKLY EVACUATE TOWARDS THE EXTRATROPICAL LATITUDES THANKS TO THE
TRANSITING THALWEG IN THE SOUTH.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WITHIN THE NEXT
12
TO 24 HOURS.

[tolakram]

Ha,

they keep saying Jade will move poleward and I'm looking for the turn north. Duh! /slaps self