WPAC: Tropical Depression (Invest 95W) = TCFA Cancelled

[wyq614]

Initial position: 7.0N 137.6E

EC also keeps trying to develop something to the east of the Philippines, but much weaker than the South China Sea cyclone.

[Chacor]

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 13N 116E ALMOST STATIONARY.

[HURAKAN]

Looks quite good.

[jpwxman]

95W appears to be getting a little more consolidated. SSD and JTWC both have it as a T1.0. Latest MTSAT animation indicates a slow westward drift, passing south of Yap shortly, and just about directly towards Koror/Palau. CMC continues to be more impressed by it than the GFS does, but it may turn northward west of the CMC track. It still shouldn't be much of a problem for the Philippines though, unless it keeps going west...

[HURAKAN]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.3N
138.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.3N 138.0E, APPROXIMATELY 75 NM
SOUTH OF YAP. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
WEAK FORMATIVE BANDING. HOWEVER, CONVECTION REMAINS WEAK,
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LLCC. A 282050Z QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS AN
IMPROVED LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD AROUND A TIGHTENING LLCC
WITH 10 TO 15 KNOT UNFLAGGED (20 KNOT FLAGGED) WINDS NEAR THE
CENTER. SEA LEVEL PRESSURE AT YAP IS 1008 MB WITH 1 MB PRESSURE
FALLS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, AND THE WIND IS OUT OF THE SOUTH
AT 10 KNOTS. THE LLCC IS SOUTH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS,
AND UNDER MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE EQUATOR-
WARD DIFFLUENCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 12 TO 17 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIF-
ICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
FAIR DUE TO THE CONTINUED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC, YET WEAK
ACCOMPANYING CONVECTION.

[Chacor]

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1010 HPA NEAR 10N 137E ALMOST STATIONARY.

[theavocado]

An approaching mid-latitude trough could make or break this system. Right now it's pretty far away from the upper level ridge axis, and outflow is subsequently not all it could be. As the approaching diffluent region of the trough passes, it could tip the balance and this could really develop. If it doesn't go rapidly, however, it might get sucked into the baroclinic zone and race off to the northeast.

The recent positions indicate that it might be drifting more to the north as the surface ridge to the east exerts more of an influence. This would get it closer to the upper level ridge axis if this continues.

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.3N
138.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.5N 137.9E, APPROXIMATELY 65 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF YAP. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). HOWEVER,
CONVECTION REMAINS WEAK AND CONFINED NEAR THE CENTER OF THE LLCC. A
282050Z QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS AN IMPROVED LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD AROUND
A TIGHTENING LLCC WITH 10 TO 15 KNOT UNFLAGGED (20 KNOT FLAGGED)
WINDS NEAR THE CENTER. SEA LEVEL PRESSURE AT YAP IS 1008 MB WITH 1
MB PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, AND THE WIND IS OUT OF THE
SOUTH AT 10 KNOTS. THE LLCC IS SOUTH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS,
AND UNDER MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE EQUATORWARD
DIFFLUENCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO
20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.4N
138.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 136.2E, APPROXIMATELY 260 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF PALAU. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS MOVED ON A
MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE AMOUNT OF
CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
LLCC IS IN A REGION OF WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BUT POLEWARD OUTFLOW
IS CURRENTLY BEING SUPPRESSED BY THE SUBTROPICAL JET LOCATED ALONG
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE AT
1003 MB BASED ON NEARBY SHIP OBSERVATIONS NEAR THE CENTER. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.

[Chacor]

TPPN11 PGTW 011211

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 95W (W OF GUAM)

B. 01/1130Z

C. 15.8N

D. 138.6E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T1.0/1.0/S0.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/12HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .25 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.0. PT AND MET AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


UEHARA

[Chacor]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 14N 138E NE SLOWLY.

[Chacor]

Second TCFA.

WTPN22 PGTW 020230
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/020121Z MAY 09//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
090 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.1N 138.2E TO 18.9N 140.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 17 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
012330Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N
138.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.9N
137.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 138.8E, APPROXIMATELY 400 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY INDICATES
THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BECOME WELL DEFINED
WITH A 012112Z QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATING 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY AND STRONGER 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY. CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE ON THE EASTERN SIDE
OF THE LLCC, AND IS BEING ENHANCED BY MID-LATITUDE BAROCLINIC ZONE
NORTH OF THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 22 KNOTS AND MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE AT 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
030230Z.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 124.0E.//

[HURAKAN]

[Chacor]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 15N 137E NNE SLOWLY.

[Chacor]

Still under some shear, it looks like.

[KWT]

Yeah does seem to be under some shear given the way the convection is located more to the NE of the systems center.

[HURAKAN]

02/0830 UTC 16.3N 138.7E T1.5/1.5 95W -- West Pacific