Folks,dont freak out as this is only a test run.
But it shows that the season is getting closer and closer.BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al862009.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
200905051632
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
TEST, AL, L, , , , , 86, 2009, TD, O, 2009050512, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL862009
AL, 86, 2009050500, , BEST, 0, 283N, 720W, 20, 1005, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 86, 2009050506, , BEST, 0, 287N, 722W, 20, 1005, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 86, 2009050512, , BEST, 0, 291N, 725W, 20, 1005, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 86, 2009050518, , BEST, 0, 295N, 728W, 20, 1005, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008,
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
[b]
FSTDA
invest_DELETE_al862009.ren
R
U
040
010
0000
200905051700
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
TEST, AL, L, , , , , 86, 2009, TD, O, 2009050512, 9999999999, , , , , , WARNING, 1, AL862009
AL, 86, 2009050500, , BEST, 0, 283N, 720W, 20, 1005, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 86, 2009050506, , BEST, 0, 287N, 722W, 20, 1005, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 86, 2009050512, , BEST, 0, 291N, 725W, 20, 1005, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 86, 2009050518, , BEST, 0, 295N, 728W, 20, 1005, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, [/b]
ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/
Code: Select all
* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING *
* TEST AL862009 05/05/09 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 26 29 33 38 43 50 57 63 65 66
V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 26 29 33 38 43 43 54 60 62 63
V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 20 21 21 24 27 31 36 44 53 60
SHEAR (KTS) 27 32 27 32 35 18 12 25 31 38 48 39 33
SHEAR DIR 287 285 298 326 341 9 155 187 224 287 318 310 288
SST (C) 21.5 21.3 21.3 21.4 21.7 21.1 15.7 4.8 1.5 5.6 6.9 6.5 8.0
POT. INT. (KT) 83 82 83 84 86 86 75 69 69 68 67 67 67
ADJ. POT. INT. 74 74 74 75 78 79 72 69 N/A 67 66 66 66
200 MB T (C) -58.5 -58.7 -59.3 -60.0 -59.4 -58.9 -58.6 -58.6 -59.3 -61.5 -62.4 -61.1 -59.3
TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
700-500 MB RH 44 45 48 50 58 61 65 67 62 60 59 72 72
GFS VTEX (KT) 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -80 -72 -73 -77 -95 -14 2 30 52 70 61 68 156
200 MB DIV 9 9 -15 -35 -2 16 78 33 59 19 39 39 76
LAND (KM) 684 609 537 468 411 416 328 138 -13 571 1100 1468 1229
LAT (DEG N) 29.5 30.2 30.9 31.8 32.7 35.5 39.5 43.7 47.1 49.6 51.9 54.7 58.3
LONG(DEG W) 72.8 73.0 73.1 73.0 72.8 71.3 67.8 61.8 53.6 45.3 38.4 32.6 28.2
STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 8 9 12 20 28 32 32 27 23 22 22
HEAT CONTENT 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999
FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 5 CX,CY: -1/ 4
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 723 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.6)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -4. -6. -7. -8. -6. -3. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9.
VERTICAL SHEAR 2. 5. 8. 10. 12. 12. 10. 10. 9. 9. 8. 4.
PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 5. 8. 11. 16. 21. 26. 32. 39. 47. 51. 54.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -12. -15. -19. -21. -23.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4.
----------------------------------------------------------
SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 13. 18. 23. 30. 37. 43. 45. 46.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 6. 9. 13. 18. 23. 30. 37. 43. 45. 46.
** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL862009 TEST 05/05/09 18 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2
D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 55.0 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1
% area w/pixels <-30 C:9999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0
Heat content (KJ/cm2) :9999.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0
Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.3%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.5%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL862009 TEST 05/05/09 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USEDftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/ ... _ships.txt
