EAST COAST : Tropical Depression ONE

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Re: East Coast : INVEST 91L

#81 Postby tolakram » Wed May 27, 2009 9:31 am

Jeff Masters:

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=1230

An area of disturbed weather, dubbed "91L" by the National Hurricane Center, is centered 120 miles south of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. While the storm does not have much in the way of heavy thunderstorm activity, it does have a well-developed circulation, and the spin of the system is readily apparent on long range radar animations out of Morehead City, North Carolina. The disturbance is over waters of 25 - 26°C and has wind shear of 10 - 15 knots over it, and these conditions are marginally favorable for some slow development to occur until Thursday afternoon, when the system will begin moving over waters too cold to support tropical cyclone development. The disturbance will track north or north-northeastward at 10 - 15 mph towards North Carolina's Outer Banks today, then get swept northeastwards out to sea on Thursday. It is unlikely that the disturbance has enough time to develop into a tropical depression, but an Air Force hurricane hunter flight is on call to investigate the system this afternoon, if necessary. If the system does develop, the current location of the heaviest thunderstorm activity in a band well removed from the center suggests that 91L would be classified as a subtropical depression. The Outer Banks of North Carolina can expect 20 - 25 mph winds and heavy rain from this system tonight and Thursday morning. In a Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued at 8am EDT this morning, NHC gave 91L a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression.

-snip-
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#82 Postby Frank2 » Wed May 27, 2009 9:34 am

It's bad English, but - there ain't nothin' there!

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsh.html

perhaps a weak surface low, at best, but per the late Director of the HRD, if he looked at this photo, he'd tell me:

"Go home, Frank!"

P.S. My first denial of the 2009 season (LOL)...
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Re: East Coast : INVEST 91L

#83 Postby HURAKAN » Wed May 27, 2009 9:45 am

Image
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Re: East Coast : INVEST 91L

#84 Postby Thunder44 » Wed May 27, 2009 9:54 am

Well, I was wrong :wink:

00
NOUS42 KNHC 271500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT WED 27 MAY 2009
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 28/1100Z TO 29/1100Z MAY 2009
WSPOD NUMBER.....09-003

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
3. NOTE: THE MISSION SCHEDULED FOR 27/2100Z OFF NORTH
CAROLINA WILL FLY TODAY, BUT THE SECOND AT 28/06Z
WAS CANX.
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Re: Recon : INVEST 91L

#85 Postby cycloneye » Wed May 27, 2009 9:55 am

Plane will fly this afternoon

000
NOUS42 KNHC 271500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT WED 27 MAY 2009
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 28/1100Z TO 29/1100Z MAY 2009
WSPOD NUMBER.....09-003

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
3. [b]NOTE: THE MISSION SCHEDULED FOR 27/2100Z OFF NORTH
CAROLINA WILL FLY TODAY
, BUT THE SECOND AT 28/06Z
WAS CANX.
[/b]
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml?
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Re: Recon : INVEST 91L

#86 Postby tolakram » Wed May 27, 2009 9:57 am

Wow,

First recon of the season.
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Re: East Coast : INVEST 91L

#87 Postby wxman57 » Wed May 27, 2009 10:13 am

Definitely a closed LLC today, but winds around the center are only in the 10-15 kt range and convection is minimal. It's moving over cooler and cooler water now, and wind shear is a bit of a factor as well. Slim chance of development.
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Re: Recon : INVEST 91L

#88 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Wed May 27, 2009 10:14 am

If this is a 1983 or 1997 type season, as the oncoming El Neenyo suggests, they won't get too many opportunities to practice flying through real, well, sort of real, disturbances.



But think of all the jet fuel they'll save.


I hope the research people don't have any grand Project Vortex like experiments planned this summer. The Spring tour is probably the most air time the Orions will see this year.
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#89 Postby HURAKAN » Wed May 27, 2009 10:18 am

Image
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Re: East Coast : INVEST 91L

#90 Postby Sanibel » Wed May 27, 2009 10:38 am

Makes me wonder if their numbers prediction is low for this year?
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Re: East Coast : INVEST 91L

#91 Postby tolakram » Wed May 27, 2009 11:02 am

Not sure what to make of this. The center may be very close or crossing this buoy.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41025
Image
Image
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Re: Model Guidance : INVEST 91L

#92 Postby hurricanefloyd5 » Wed May 27, 2009 11:21 am

are all or most of the models showing at lease ANA of 35kts or is this just a few models???
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Re: East Coast : INVEST 91L

#93 Postby cycloneye » Wed May 27, 2009 11:25 am

Probabilities are up a tad.

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#94 Postby capepoint » Wed May 27, 2009 11:25 am

should be very near 41036 right now.
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Re: East Coast : INVEST 91L

#95 Postby tolakram » Wed May 27, 2009 11:29 am

Convection near center is firing over the gulf stream.

Image
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Re: East Coast : INVEST 91L

#96 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Wed May 27, 2009 11:37 am

OpieStorm wrote:In my 15+ years of tracking tropical cyclones I never knew that 2 areas of thunderstomrs in May meant we were on pace to a hyperactive season.Interesting.


The two areas were close to being named...well defined Low Level Centers...so we were close to 2 systems...
hyperactive for May.
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#97 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed May 27, 2009 11:39 am

This doesn't look nearly as good as the Gulf storm this past weekend though.
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#98 Postby Tommedic » Wed May 27, 2009 11:50 am

If nothing else, the rise of 2 storms in May can be useful. So many in the Carolina's have gotten very relaxed and almost ignorant to the possibilities of a strike. We can use these to remind people that we need to be ready at all times. Just a thought. :flag:
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#99 Postby HURAKAN » Wed May 27, 2009 11:50 am

Image
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Derek Ortt

#100 Postby Derek Ortt » Wed May 27, 2009 12:31 pm

this isnt close to a TC... its a low cloud swirl
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