Dionne wrote:Thunder44 wrote:The 12z NAM today appears to wrap this system in up quickly into a TC, before hitting Eastern Long Island tonight.
Long Island has had plenty of rain this summer. I'm told it rained 24 days in the month of June in Huntington. Folks that live out on Long Island know they are over due for a storm. If and when they do get hit.....there is no evacuation. It is physically impossible to evac L.I.
I've looked at SLOSH maps for supposed worst case (Cat 4) hurricanes, and generally, near, or just North, of Sunrise Highway is the limit of storm surge flooding. That is several miles inland, but probably 80% of the island stays above water.
Evacuation would be slow, it is all through NYC. I think the danger mihgt be worse in the city, not from surge but from stronger winds aloft and broken glass.
Houston tightened office tower building codes for windows after Alicia, and Cat 2 Ike still broke a lot of windows downtown.
Winds can be a category stronger a few hundred feet above ground.
Between several hundred miles of cold water, and fairly infrequent direct strikes, Belle and Gloria are the only two Long Island hurricanes that come to memory w/o checking Wiki, the odds in any given year are infintesimally small.
But eventually, a 1938 storm that is a Cat 5 in the Bahamas and only weakens to a Cat 3 (no doubt helped by baroclinic forcing) will hit, and if it hits 50 miles West of 1938, it'll be a real disaster. It could happen in 2 weeks, or 200 years. But it will happen.