CPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION LANA (06E)

[Macrocane]

Carlos looked like that before weakening, with a spot of dry air in the center, but later it began to strengthen again rapidly and reached it's maximum intensity. So, if Lana weakens a little it could easily intensify again due o the favorable conditions, remember that small cyclones are more susceptible to the surrounding environment.

[CrazyC83]

It retains the name Lana even if the best track finds that it became a storm before 140W?

[HurricaneRobert]

It retains the name Lana even if the best track finds that it became a storm before 140W?

Of course.

[I-wall]

Looks to me like it's becoming less organized

[Derek Ortt]

convection does not equal organization

I see a fairly well organized low-end TS that is likely to slowly intensify

[cycloneye]

00 UTC=45kts


WHXX01 KMIA 310046
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0046 UTC FRI JUL 31 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO CPHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

CENTRAL PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE LANA (EP062009) 20090731 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090731 0000 090731 1200 090801 0000 090801 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.6N 142.3W 13.3N 145.1W 14.0N 148.0W 14.7N 151.0W
BAMD 12.6N 142.3W 13.5N 145.6W 14.5N 148.6W 15.7N 151.1W
BAMM 12.6N 142.3W 13.4N 145.4W 14.2N 148.4W 15.1N 151.1W
LBAR 12.6N 142.3W 13.2N 145.5W 13.7N 148.7W 14.2N 152.1W
SHIP 45KTS 55KTS 60KTS 62KTS
DSHP 45KTS 55KTS 60KTS 62KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090802 0000 090803 0000 090804 0000 090805 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.5N 154.1W 17.0N 159.9W 18.5N 165.5W 20.0N 170.7W
BAMD 17.3N 152.9W 20.7N 155.8W 22.6N 157.3W 22.3N 159.3W
BAMM 16.0N 153.5W 18.1N 157.9W 20.3N 162.1W 22.3N 165.6W
LBAR 14.6N 155.1W 16.7N 159.9W 18.4N 163.9W .0N .0W
SHIP 62KTS 50KTS 40KTS 29KTS
DSHP 62KTS 50KTS 40KTS 29KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.6N LONCUR = 142.3W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 17KT
LATM12 = 11.9N LONM12 = 138.9W DIRM12 = 279DEG SPDM12 = 16KT
LATM24 = 11.3N LONM24 = 135.6W
WNDCUR = 45KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1000MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 75NM RD34SE = 45NM RD34SW = 45NM RD34NW = 60NM

[Derek Ortt]

45 may be conservative, an earlier AMSU pass had 60KT

[yzerfan]

How often do we get a CPAC storm before we get an Atlantic one?

[wxmann_91]

^^First time in 9 years that CPAC has come before ATL. EPAC/CPAC seasons peak earlier than ATL season so it's not that unusual, but it does indicate how quiet the ATL really has been so far.

[Macrocane]

How often do we get a CPAC storm before we get an Atlantic one?

Correct me if I'm wrong but I think it didn't happen since 2000 when TS Upana formed on July 20 (CPAC) and Alberto formed on August 3 (ATL).

[RL3AO]

[cycloneye]

50kts

ZCZC HFOTCMCP1 ALL
TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM LANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP062009
0300 UTC FRI JUL 31 2009

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 143.1W AT 31/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 75NE 45SE 45SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 75SE 0SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 143.1W AT 31/0300Z
AT 31/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 142.3W

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 13.2N 145.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 13.7N 148.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 45NE 30SE 30SW 45NW.
34 KT...105NE 75SE 75SW 105NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 14.2N 151.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 45NE 30SE 30SW 45NW.
34 KT...105NE 75SE 75SW 105NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 14.6N 153.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 15.2N 159.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 45SE 45SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 16.0N 165.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 16.5N 171.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.8N 143.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

CZC HFOTCPCP1 ALL
TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LANA ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP062009
ISSUED BY NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM HST THU JUL 30 2009

...LANA STRENGTHENING QUICKLY OVER OPEN WATERS...

AT 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LANA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 143.1 WEST OR ABOUT 925
MILES...1490 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO HAWAII.

LANA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND LANA COULD BECOME A
HURRICANE TOMORROW.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...12.8N 143.1W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

ZCZC HFOTCDCP1 ALL
TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM LANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP062009
ISSUED BY NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM HST THU JUL 30 2009

LANA HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WELL-DEFINED
SPIRAL BAND PATTERN PRESENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. IN ADDITION...
AN AQUA MICROWAVE PASS AT 2240 UTC SHOWS SIGNIFICANT INNER-CORE
STRUCTURE WITH A BROKEN RING OF CONVECTION AROUND THE STORM CENTER.
DVORAK ESTIMATES AT 0000 UTC WERE 45 KT FROM TAFB/CIMSS...AND SINCE
THAT TIME...THE CYCLONE IS BECOMING BETTER-ORGANIZED WITH
INCREASING CONVECTION ON THE WESTERN SIDE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS RAISED TO 50 KT...AND THIS COULD BE CONSERVATIVE BASED ON THE
MICROWAVE AND RECENT INFRARED SATELLITE DATA.

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS
LANA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF AN
UPPER HIGH. THIS LIGHT SHEAR ALONG WITH WARM SSTS SHOULD ALLOW
STRENGTHENING UNTIL THE CYCLONE INTERACTS WITH A LARGE MIDDLE- TO
UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY SEEN OVER HAWAII. THIS UPPER-LOW SHOULD
START TO INCREASE THE SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM IN A COUPLE OF DAYS AND
SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN LANA BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO...BUT A LITTLE HIGHER
THAN...THE MODEL CONSENSUS INITIALLY...AND IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS
MODEL IN 3-5 DAYS.

THE BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS 285/17. A MID-LEVEL HIGH
LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF HAWAII SHOULD PROVIDE THE STEERING
FOR LANA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...KEEPING THE STORM
ON A WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST HEADING. ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS
WEAKEN THE STRONG MIDDLE-TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR HAWAII AND SHOW
ENOUGH RIDGING TO ALLOW THE STORM TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS. THERE HAS BEEN A NOTICEABLE NORTHWARD SHIFT OF THE STORM
TRACK IN THE RECENT GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS/GFDL/HWRF MODELS. THIS
CHANGE COULD BE ATTRIBUTED TO THE GFS MODEL HAVING A MORE
REALISTIC REPRESENTATION OF THE STORM THAN EARLIER...ALTHOUGH IT IS
DIFFICULT TO TELL THE EXACT REASON AT THIS TIME. THE OFFICIAL NHC
FORECAST IS SHIFTED TO THE NORTH FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT STILL
LIES SOUTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS...SIGNIFICANTLY SO AT THE
LONG-RANGE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 31/0300Z 12.8N 143.1W 50 KT
12HR VT 31/1200Z 13.2N 145.5W 60 KT
24HR VT 01/0000Z 13.7N 148.4W 65 KT
36HR VT 01/1200Z 14.2N 151.2W 65 KT
48HR VT 02/0000Z 14.6N 153.9W 60 KT
72HR VT 03/0000Z 15.2N 159.5W 50 KT
96HR VT 04/0000Z 16.0N 165.5W 35 KT
120HR VT 05/0000Z 16.5N 171.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[Derek Ortt]

as I said in the evening nwhhc forecast, the initial intensity may be very conservative

[clfenwi]

As I mentioned earlier in the thread and others have re-iterated, first time since 2000 there was a Central Pacific named storm before a West Atlantic one. The CPAC storm that year, Upana, topped out at 40 knots. Since the official forecast brings Lana to a minimal hurricane, I dug back a bit further in the books.

The last time a hurricane formed in the Central Pacific before one did so in the Atlantic was 1994, when Li had a 6 hour period as one on August 12 and Bill became one on August 21.

That also happened in 1993 with a longer lasting and stronger hurricane when Keoni reached that status on August 14 (becaming a major two days later) and and Emily became the first Atlantic hurricane on August 26.

[CrazyC83]

Why is the NHC running the advisories?

000
NOHW40 PHFO 302024
PNSHFO
NOHW40 PHFO 292224
HIZ001>028-310400-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1024 AM HST THU JUL 30 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN HONOLULU AND CENTRAL PACIFIC
HURRICANE CENTER ARE EXPERIENCING COMPUTER HARDWARE PROBLEMS. ALL
CRITICAL PRODUCTS...INCLUDING WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND ADVISORIES...
AND MOST ROUTINE PRODUCTS CONTINUE TO BE ISSUED BY OFFICIAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BACKUP OFFICES.

BACKUP EXERCISES ARE PERFORMED REGULARLY TO ENSURE CONTINUOUS
OPERATIONS AND FLOW OF PRODUCTS WITHOUT A DEGRADATION OF SERVICES.
DURING THIS TIME...SOME PRODUCTS...INCLUDING RADAR DATA...WILL NOT
BE UPDATING ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN HONOLULU AND
THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER WEB SITES.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN HONOLULU AND THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER ARE WORKING TO REPAIR COMPUTER HARDWARE AS
SOON AS POSSIBLE.

$$

MEHLE

[CrazyC83]

As for the intensity, I agree with 60 kt at 0000Z with the AMSU pass, and 70 kt now. Yeah it sounds like a really high guess, but I do think we have Hurricane Lana.

[RL3AO]

Why is the NHC running the advisories?

NWS Honolulu and CPHC are having computer problems.

[CrazyC83]

Why is the NHC running the advisories?

NWS Honolulu and CPHC are having computer problems.

Yep, as posted. I meant to respond to others' questions there.

[brunota2003]

I definitely agree 50 knots seems to be too low. Looking at the sat derived winds on NRL, there is a very wide area covered in the deep purples of 50 knot winds...I think there are places in there higher than the sat can go, closer to 60 knots.

[HURAKAN]

Lana knows that time is a precious commodity.