WPAC: TYPHOON VAMCO (11W)

[Chacor]

Nice, small and compact system.

[bob rulz]

This one has the potential to be a classic West Pacific typhoon...there's a lot of warm water out there.

[Chacor]

WTPQ21 RJTD 191800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0910 VAMCO (0910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 191800UTC 18.2N 157.5E GOOD
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 180NM NORTHEAST 140NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 201800UTC 19.5N 157.3E 70NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
48HF 211800UTC 21.9N 156.5E 110NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
72HF 221800UTC 25.4N 155.0E 210NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT =

[wxmann_91]

Satellite estimates do quite badly with these pinhole eye storms. I'd wager that this is at least a high-end Cat 3 right now, if not Cat 4.

[CrazyC83]

Satellite estimates do quite badly with these pinhole eye storms. I'd wager that this is at least a high-end Cat 3 right now, if not Cat 4.

I agree, it is probably quite strong - I think it has been in RI for the last 12 hours or so.

[CrazyC83]

19/2030 UTC 18.4N 157.5E T6.0/6.0 VAMCO -- West Pacific

Supports 115 kt - it may even be stronger now.

[cycloneye]

[CrazyC83]

Given its structure, I'd say 120 kt - and well on its way to Cat 5.

[Macrocane]

Finally a very strong system on the WPAC, it is weird that since May we hadn't had a cat 3 or higher typhoon.

[RattleMan]

11W VAMCO 090820 0000 18.5N 157.4E WPAC 105 944

[HURAKAN]

NRL: 90 knots

[HURAKAN]

19/2030 UTC 18.4N 157.5E T6.0/6.0 VAMCO -- West Pacific

115 knots

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 054
WTPQ21 RJTD 200000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0910 VAMCO (0910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 200000UTC 18.6N 157.4E GOOD
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 200NM NORTHEAST 160NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 210000UTC 19.8N 157.1E 70NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
48HF 220000UTC 22.4N 156.1E 110NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
72HF 230000UTC 26.1N 154.2E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT =
NNNN

[btangy]

Examples like Vamco indicate why we need global reanalyses of global tropical cyclone datasets and not just for the Atlantic. Even in today's modern age of remote sensing, we can still miss things like the RI that Vamco has undergone that introduces errors in the best track data.

[HURAKAN]

WTPN32 PGTW 200300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 11W (VAMCO) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200000Z --- NEAR 18.5N 157.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.5N 157.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 19.2N 157.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 20.0N 156.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 21.3N 156.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 22.8N 155.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 26.1N 153.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 30.8N 153.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 38.6N 156.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
200300Z POSITION NEAR 18.7N 157.3E.
TYPHOON (TY) 11W (VAMCO) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 970 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS 31 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 200900Z, 201500Z, 202100Z AND 210300Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Very small eye

[HURAKAN]

Looking less organized

[HURAKAN]

WTPN32 PGTW 200900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 11W (VAMCO) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200600Z --- NEAR 18.9N 157.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.9N 157.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 19.6N 156.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 20.7N 156.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 22.2N 156.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 24.3N 155.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 28.2N 154.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 32.9N 154.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 41.1N 158.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
200900Z POSITION NEAR 19.1N 157.0E.
TYPHOON (TY) 11W (VAMCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 540 NM WEST OF WAKE
ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO REMAIN WEAK AS THE MID-
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF TY
11W HAS BEEN INTERRUPTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROPICAL TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH (TUTT) CELL THAT HAS DEVELOPED FROM THE UPPER LEVEL INTO THE
MID-LEVEL. THE TUTT CELL IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND MOVE NORTHWARD
INTO THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW, ALLOWING THE MID-LEVEL STR TO BUILD
WESTWARD, INCREASING TRACK SPEED FOR TY 11W BEYOND TAU 48. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW FROM TY 11W INTO
ANOTHER TUTT CELL LOCATED TO THE NORTH REMAINS WELL DEFINED AND IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL WILL HELP TO
INCREASE THE MAXIMUM INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 48. AN APPROACHING MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE STR AXIS, CREATING A
WEAKNESS AROUND TAU 72, ALLOWING A TURN NORTHWARD. BY TAU 120, TY
11W WILL WILL START TO TRANSITION INTO A BAROCLINIC SYSTEM. CURRENT
INTENSITY IS SUPPORTED BY DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD AND
CURRENT POSITION IS SUPPORTED BY A 200313Z AMSRE IMAGE. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z IS 31 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
201500Z, 202100Z, 210300Z AND 210900Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 034
WTPQ21 RJTD 200900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0910 VAMCO (0910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 200900UTC 18.9N 157.2E GOOD
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 200NM NORTHEAST 160NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 210900UTC 21.0N 156.0E 70NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
45HF 220600UTC 24.0N 154.7E 110NM 70%
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
69HF 230600UTC 27.8N 153.5E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT =
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 861
WTPQ51 RJTD 201200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0910 VAMCO (0910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 201200UTC 19.0N 157.1E GOOD
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 200NM NORTHEAST 160NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 211200UTC 21.0N 156.2E 70NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
48HF 221200UTC 23.9N 155.0E 110NM 70%
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
72HF 231200UTC 27.6N 153.8E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
96HF 241200UTC 32.3N 155.3E 350NM 70%
MOVE NNE 12KT
120HF 251200UTC 38.3N 159.2E 450NM 70%
MOVE NNE 17KT =
NNNN