ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[tailgater]

Looking at early morning Visible she looks like she has totally dissipated with the strong MLC she could try and reform again. funny how mid level shear tears her apart but a mid level cyclone looks great and no you don't have to tell me how shear works, it just sounds odd.

[HURAKAN]

Link: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... is_floater



Looks like the broad, ill-defined center is just south of the Mona Passage

[CrazyC83]

I doubt that L position is even a center anymore. If a new center forms, it should be near the convection.

This is the third storm to basically commit suicide this season by taking a path straight into high shear...

[Frank2]

Except for Bill, here is a photo list of this year's weaklings (er, tropical cyclones):

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_Atlan ... son#Storms

we all may go back and forth about the models, but in the end the long-term forecasts for an lower-than-average El Nino season have been very accurate, and is why everyone, from JB to CSU to the NHC lowered their seasonal forecast totals...

[Derek Ortt]

except Frank, the shear has not been the typical el nino shear. El nino shear is typically upper level shear in the MDR. Not UL shear in the Bahamas like Danny had or ML shear ike this one had

[wxman57]

Here's a surface plot/satellite. Pressures across the NE Caribbean have risen 2-3 millibars since yesterday. Little to no evidence of a mid-level center any longer. Remnants of the weak LLC can be seen west of the convection. Wind shear increases along its path. Bye, Erika! Good riddance!

[Frank2]

Derek,

Yes, that is true (no shortage of ULL's this season)...

Just a guess, but it seems that the 2006 season was more influenced by El Nino shear than the present...

By the way, I found this interesting abstract concerning the development of a model with a shear bias:

http://cat.inist.fr/?aModele=afficheN&cpsidt=13395368

[Sanibel]

Another nocturnal d-max with nothing under it this time.

[Gustywind]

[Sanibel]

That remnant center really flared some good convection in the shear last night. It should dissipate completely over Hispaniola today. 2009 had heavily sheared and convecting tropical storms that then got choked-off by bad air and shear.

[cycloneye]

As I see some haved closed the books on the 2009 season and waiting for the 2010 one to start. Is September!!

[wxman57]

Bones feels more confident about his declaration of a dead Erika now:

[lrak]

Bones feels more confident about his declaration of a dead Erika now:

BUT BUT..... I want my mommie.

[vbhoutex]

Wxman57, there was obviously a a lot of energy involved with Erika. Even though it is obvious that Erika is gone can this energy, if it still exists(I don't know if it does)translate into something later down the road or is that energy now gone with the total disapation of the TC?

[lrak]

Wxman57, there was obviously a a lot of energy involved with Erika. Even though it is obvious that Erika is gone can this energy, if it still exists(I don't know if it does)translate into something later down the road or is that energy now gone with the total disapation of the TC?

LIKE Rain for S TX? ...LOL

[gatorcane]

Wxman57, there was obviously a a lot of energy involved with Erika. Even though it is obvious that Erika is gone can this energy, if it still exists(I don't know if it does)translate into something later down the road or is that energy now gone with the total disapation of the TC?

Agreed. There is *alot* of energy with this system. I do think it needs watching until either the convection has completely disintegrated or it is on a recurve path.

Afterall it is September and it is lurking in the Caribbean (albeit with unfavorable conditions at the moment but that could change upstream).

[Bocadude85]

Wxman57, there was obviously a a lot of energy involved with Erika. Even though it is obvious that Erika is gone can this energy, if it still exists(I don't know if it does)translate into something later down the road or is that energy now gone with the total disapation of the TC?

Agreed. There is *alot* of energy with this system. I do think it needs watching until either the convection has completely disintegrated or it is on a recurve path.

Afterall it is September and it is lurking in the Caribbean (albeit with unfavorable conditions at the moment but that could change upstream).

I agree that this does need to be watched, but for now I think we can say good bye Ericka.

[Dean4Storms]

The Fat Lady Sung her last number!! Bye Erika!

[wxman57]

Of course we monitor it as long as it has significant convection. But I'm seeing very good signs on satellite and with surface obs now. Wind shear is increasing as forecast and convection is decreasing. It appears quite unlikely that Erika will make a comeback.

Oh,and Irak, quit your whining about rain or I'll send an extreme drought to Corpus Christi! Wait, I'm too late. It's already there.

[Air Force Met]

Wxman57, there was obviously a a lot of energy involved with Erika. Even though it is obvious that Erika is gone can this energy, if it still exists(I don't know if it does)translate into something later down the road or is that energy now gone with the total disapation of the TC?

Agreed. There is *alot* of energy with this system. I do think it needs watching until either the convection has completely disintegrated or it is on a recurve path.

Afterall it is September and it is lurking in the Caribbean (albeit with unfavorable conditions at the moment but that could change upstream).

Not really a lot of energy anymore. Erika has a less than 10% chance of regeneration...and that's being generous. Shouldn't be much left of this by this time tomorrow. AND...it doesn't matter if it is September when conditions are what they are.