EPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION LINDA (15E)

[cycloneye]

010
WTPZ45 KNHC 091432
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152009
800 AM PDT WED SEP 09 2009

SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN THE CLOUD PATTERN. THE
CONVECTION IS NOT SYMMETRIC AND IS LOCATED PRIMARILY NORTHWEST OF
THE CENTER. THE OUTFLOW IS DEFINED IN ALL QUADRANTS. T-NUMBERS
REMAIN 3.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY CONTINUES
AT 55 KNOTS. LINDA STILL HAS THE OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY
DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS BEFORE THE SHEAR INCREASES AND THE
CIRCULATION BEGINS TO REACH COOLER WATERS. A GRADUAL WEAKENING
SHOULD START THEREAFTER AND LINDA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT
LOW ABOUT 96 HOURS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE TREND
INDICATED BY THE SHIPS MODEL.

LINDA BEGAN TO MOVE A LITTLE FASTER AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW
325 DEGREES AT 7 KNOTS. THERE IS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DEVELOPING
EAST OF LINDA AND WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW A LARGE TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS PATTERN SHOULD FAVOR A MORE
NORTHERLY TRACK DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE
IN FORWARD SPEED. MODELS HAVE BEGUN TO DIVERGE WITH ONE GROUP
TAKING THE CYCLONE NORTHWARD AND THE OTHER SHOWING A MORE WESTWARD
TRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST GOES WITH THE FIRST GROUP WHICH
CONSISTS OF THE RELIABLE GLOBAL GFS/ECMWF...THE GFDL/HWRF PAIR AND
THE CONSENSUS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 09/1500Z 16.5N 128.7W 55 KT
12HR VT 10/0000Z 17.3N 129.2W 60 KT
24HR VT 10/1200Z 18.5N 130.0W 55 KT
36HR VT 11/0000Z 19.5N 130.5W 50 KT
48HR VT 11/1200Z 20.7N 131.4W 40 KT
72HR VT 12/1200Z 22.5N 132.5W 30 KT
96HR VT 13/1200Z 23.5N 133.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 14/1200Z 25.0N 133.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[HURAKAN]

562
WTPZ35 KNHC 091432
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LINDA ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152009
800 AM PDT WED SEP 09 2009

...LINDA MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
INTENSITY...

AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LINDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 128.7 WEST OR ABOUT
1300 MILES...2090 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.

LINDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
TO 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...16.5N 128.7W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[HurricaneRobert]

She looks like a hurricane:

[HurricaneRobert]

What a difference 15 minutes makes:


Nice eye:

[brunota2003]

She looks a lot like Isabel, minus the size and eye.

[Macrocane]

She looks very good, if the trend continues then it could be a hurricane on the next advisory, and if that's true GFDL and HWRF forecast will verify.

[CrazyC83]

Yeah looks about 65 kt to me.

[HURAKAN]

356
WHXX01 KMIA 091839
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1839 UTC WED SEP 9 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE LINDA (EP152009) 20090909 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090909 1800 090910 0600 090910 1800 090911 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.6N 128.8W 18.2N 129.8W 20.0N 131.1W 21.8N 132.2W
BAMD 16.6N 128.8W 18.7N 129.7W 21.2N 130.4W 23.9N 130.7W
BAMM 16.6N 128.8W 18.3N 129.8W 20.1N 130.9W 22.0N 131.9W
LBAR 16.6N 128.8W 18.1N 129.3W 20.2N 130.1W 22.6N 130.7W
SHIP 60KTS 64KTS 63KTS 55KTS
DSHP 60KTS 64KTS 63KTS 55KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090911 1800 090912 1800 090913 1800 090914 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 23.1N 133.0W 25.2N 133.6W 27.3N 130.8W 30.4N 125.2W
BAMD 26.2N 129.9W 29.3N 123.1W 29.5N 114.8W 30.3N 109.4W
BAMM 23.6N 132.6W 26.2N 131.2W 28.5N 125.0W 30.0N 118.0W
LBAR 24.8N 130.4W 27.6N 126.3W 28.4N 120.9W 30.8N 116.4W
SHIP 47KTS 22KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 47KTS 22KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.6N LONCUR = 128.8W DIRCUR = 340DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 15.6N LONM12 = 128.3W DIRM12 = 347DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 15.2N LONM24 = 128.2W
WNDCUR = 60KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 55KT
CENPRS = 990MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 100NM RD34SE = 50NM RD34SW = 30NM RD34NW = 110NM

$$
NNNN

[CrazyC83]

Best track: 60 kt

EP, 15, 2009090918, , BEST, 0, 166N, 1288W, 60, 990, TS

[cycloneye]

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 092034
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152009
200 PM PDT WED SEP 09 2009

LINDA IS ON THE VERGE OF BECOMING A HURRICANE. THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS
BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED IN BOTH CONVENTIONAL IMAGERY AND
MICROWAVE DATA. THERE IS A HINT OF AN EYE ON VISIBLE IMAGES...WITH A
RING OF CONVECTION ON MICROWAVE DATA. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
INCREASED TO 60 KNOTS BASED ON T-NUMBERS OF 3.5 AND 4.0 FROM TAFB
AND SAB RESPECTIVELY. LINDA STILL HAS THE OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN
SLIGHTLY AND BECOME A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS
WHILE THE SHEAR IS LIGHT...AND BEFORE THE CIRCULATION BEGINS TO
MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS. THEREAFTER...A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD
START AND LINDA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT
96 HOURS OR EARLIER. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE TREND
INDICATED BY THE SHIPS MODEL WHICH IN FACT DISSIPATES LINDA BEYOND
72 HOURS.

BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 325 DEGREES AT 3 KNOTS. MOST
OF THE GLOBAL MODELS DEVELOP A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EAST OF LINDA AND
WATER VAPOR IMAGES ALREADY SHOW A LARGE TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE. THIS PATTERN SHOULD FAVOR A SLOW NORTHWESTERLY TO
NORTHERLY TRACK FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS OR SO. THEREAFTER...THE
STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS THE TROUGH MOVES
EASTWARD. LINDA OR ITS REMNANTS SHOULD THEN MOVE VERY LITTLE.
THE SPREAD IN TRACK GUIDANCE IS EVEN LARGER THIS AFTERNOON
INCREASING THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST...PRIMARILY BEYOND
48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE CLOSE TO THE
CONSENSUS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 09/2100Z 16.7N 129.0W 60 KT
12HR VT 10/0600Z 17.7N 129.6W 65 KT
24HR VT 10/1800Z 19.0N 130.5W 65 KT
36HR VT 11/0600Z 20.0N 131.0W 55 KT
48HR VT 11/1800Z 21.0N 132.0W 45 KT
72HR VT 12/1800Z 22.5N 133.0W 30 KT
96HR VT 13/1800Z 23.5N 133.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 14/1800Z 24.5N 133.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[brunota2003]

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
10/0000 UTC 16.8N 129.2W T4.0/4.0 LINDA
09/1800 UTC 16.5N 128.8W T4.0/4.0 LINDA
09/1200 UTC 16.2N 128.5W T3.5/3.5 LINDA


'Cane status for Linda, anyone?

[bombarderoazul]

Huracan linda very soon.

[cycloneye]

What about hurricane Linda in 2 hours officially?

00 UTC Best Track=65kts

EP, 15, 2009091000, , BEST, 0, 168N, 1292W, 65, 987, HU

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 009.invest

[HURAKAN]

Hurricane Linda

[Kingarabian]

MMM about time. The models are all over the place for this one. Track is uncertain.

[HURAKAN]

266
WTPZ35 KNHC 100238
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE LINDA ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152009
800 PM PDT WED SEP 09 2009

...LINDA BECOMES A HURRICANE...THE SIXTH HURRICANE OF THE EASTERN
PACIFIC SEASON...

AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LINDA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 129.4 WEST OR ABOUT 1325 MILES
...2135 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

LINDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY...WITH LINDA FORECAST TO WEAKEN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
125 MILES...205 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB...29.06 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...17.1N 129.4W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 6 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


540
WTPZ25 KNHC 100235
TCMEP5
HURRICANE LINDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152009
0300 UTC THU SEP 10 2009

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 129.4W AT 10/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT.......100NE 50SE 30SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 150SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 129.4W AT 10/0300Z
AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 129.2W

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 18.1N 130.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 50SE 30SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 19.3N 131.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 50SE 30SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 20.2N 131.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT...100NE 50SE 30SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 21.2N 132.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 22.5N 133.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 23.5N 133.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 24.0N 133.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 129.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[HURAKAN]

619
WTPZ45 KNHC 100240
TCDEP5
HURRICANE LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152009
800 PM PDT WED SEP 09 2009

LINDA HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE EVENING. AN EYE HAS
BECOME APPARENT IN CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND AN AMSU
OVERPASS AT 0030 UTC SHOWED A BETTER DEFINED EYEWALL THAN A FEW
HOURS AGO. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 77 KT FROM TAFB AND
65 KT FROM SAB...AND THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL AMSU ESTIMATES OF
65 KT OR GREATER. BASED ON THIS...LINDA IS UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE
WITH 70 KT WINDS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 320/5. LINDA IS SOUTH OF A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE...
WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WEST OF
THE HURRICANE AND A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EAST OF IT. THE
MID/UPPER-LEVEL FEATURES ARE TRYING TO STEER THE CYCLONE
NORTHWARD...WHILE THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE IS TRYING TO STEER IT MORE
WESTWARD. THIS IS RESULTING IN A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...
WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE AS LONG AS LINDA KEEPS ITS VERTICALLY DEEP
STRUCTURE. THE LARGE-SCALE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS WILL BE FOR ABOUT
48-72 HR...AND THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
TRACK THROUGH THAT TIME. AFTER THAT TIME...THE ECMWF...GFDN...
NOGAPS...AND UKMET SHOW THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF LINDA TURNING MORE
WESTWARD...WHILE THE GFS...HWRF...AND GFDL SHOW A GENERALLY
NORTHWARD MOTION. THIS SPREAD SUGGESTS THAT THE MOTION SHOULD BE
SLOW...AND THE NEW FORECAST TRACK COMPROMISES BETWEEN THESE
EXTREMES BY SHOWING A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION.

ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SHOW 20 KT OF
SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER LINDA...AND SIMILAR SHEAR IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN ADDITION...
THE CYCLONE IS MOVING OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 27C AND
COLDER. THESE FACTORS SUGGEST THE CURRENT INTENSIFICATION SHOULD
END SOON...AND THAT LINDA SHOULD STEADILY WEAKEN AFTER 12-24 HR.
THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...
AND CALLS FOR LINDA TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM IN ABOUT 24
HR...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN ABOUT 72 HR...AND A REMNANT LOW IN
ABOUT 96 HR. THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE STRONG ON THE FORECAST
TRACKS OF THE ECMWF AND THE OTHER WESTWARD-MOTION MODELS...SO EVEN
IF LINDA AVOIDS THE COLD WATERS NORTH OF 20N IT IS STILL LIKELY TO
WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW BEFORE 120 HR.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/0300Z 17.1N 129.4W 70 KT
12HR VT 10/1200Z 18.1N 130.1W 70 KT
24HR VT 11/0000Z 19.3N 131.0W 65 KT
36HR VT 11/1200Z 20.2N 131.7W 55 KT
48HR VT 12/0000Z 21.2N 132.5W 45 KT
72HR VT 13/0000Z 22.5N 133.5W 30 KT
96HR VT 14/0000Z 23.5N 133.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 15/0000Z 24.0N 133.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[HURAKAN]

Looking great

[brunota2003]

I wouldn't be surprised if it was closer to 80 knots...now here is my question, can it clear that eye out and keep it that way?

[brunota2003]

Now "Code Orange"

ABPZ20 KNHC 051733
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SAT SEP 5 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS INCREASED THIS MORNING. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE



GFS predicts we'll have a TC out of this by Tuesday, but amongst the global models, is alone in this opinion.

Well, kudos to the GFS! It hit the hammer directly on the nail, with Linda forming on Monday.