WPAC : TROPICAL STORM MELOR (20W)

[Weather Watcher]

Has anyone heard from Infdidoll yet?

I pray that you are doing ok.


Please let us know

[ozonepete]

JTWC 09Z special position fix shows Melor east of the forecast track. The satellite loops show this also. I still cannot see the JMA track working out.

(Sorry I can't post images until I get home.

[HURAKAN]

Heavy rain over Japan, center still offshore

[HURAKAN]

WTPN34 PGTW 071500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 20W (MELOR) WARNING NR 034
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z --- NEAR 31.7N 134.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 25 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 31.7N 134.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 35.6N 138.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 39.5N 142.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 28 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 42.8N 148.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
071500Z POSITION NEAR 32.7N 135.4E.
TYPHOON (TY) 20W (MELOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NM SOUTHWEST OF
TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 25 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z IS 30 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 072100Z, 080300Z, 080900Z AND 081500Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL STORM 19W (PARMA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 888
WTPQ22 RJTD 071200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0918 MELOR (0918)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 071200UTC 31.6N 134.3E FAIR
MOVE NE 22KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 140NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
30KT 300NM EAST 230NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 081200UTC 39.6N 140.9E 85NM 70%
MOVE NE 23KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
48HF 091200UTC 43.5N 147.5E 180NM 70%
MOVE NE 16KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 101200UTC 45.2N 158.2E 250NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =
NNNN

[ozonepete]

1AM JST Observation
Shionomisaki, Japan (Airport) located on the Kii Peninsula:

69 °F
Heavy Rain
Humidity: 96%
Dew Point: 68 °F
Wind: 41 mph from the ENE
Wind Gust: -
Pressure: 28.63 in (Falling)
Visibility: 0.0 miles


1AM JST Observation
Shizuoka, Japan (Airport) located on the coast midway between Kii Peninsula and Tokyo:

64 °F
Heavy Showers Rain Mist
Humidity: 94%
Dew Point: 63 °F
Wind: 20 mph from the ENE
Wind Gust: 37 mph
Pressure: 29.42 in (Falling)
Visibility: 2.5 miles

[weatherbabe]

I am in Osaka. heavy gusts and getting heavier. not much rain in my area.
just the sounds of that freight train passing through

[CrazyC83]

Is that pressure in the eyewall? If so, the central pressure of Melor is probably 966mb right now. That does seem a bit too conservative though.

[ozonepete]

Is that pressure in the eyewall? If so, the central pressure of Melor is probably 966mb right now. That does seem a bit too conservative though.

No. the JMA last central pressure given was 950mb at 15Z.
Note in the obs I posted before that Shionomisaki on the Kii peninsula had a pressure of 28.63 or 969mb. The eye should be passing just south of there now.

This storm is really getting sheared off and the eye has been compromised, so winds are really going down. Only places to the east of the eye should get some good gusts.

Here's the last (15Z) JTWC prognostic reasoning:

WDPN34 PGTW 071500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 20W (MELOR) WARNING NR 34//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TYPHOON (TY) 20W (MELOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NM SOUTH-
WEST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 25 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. TY MELOR IS POLEWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS
AND IS ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID-LATITUDES. RECENT
ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS SHIFTED
TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION IS BEING SHEARED TO
THE NORTHEAST BY THE STRONG MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE 071002Z
37GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS EROSION IN THE SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT OF THE EYE WALL AS WELL AS THE APPEARANCE OF DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT. THE CURRENT POSITION IS IN LINE WITH THE LAST SIX RJTD
RADAR FIXES AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS A ROUGH AVERAGE OF THE
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM RJTD, PGTW AND KNES.
3. FORECAST REASONING
A. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGED SINCE
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. TY MELOR WILL CONTINUE TO ENCOUNTER UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (GREATER THAN 50 KNOTS) ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LATITUDE BARO-
CLINIC ZONE AND IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN THE NEXT 08 TO 10
HOURS AS MINIMAL TYPHOON. AFTER MAKING LANDFALL, TY MELOR WILL
TRANSIT ACROSS HONSHU WHILE UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. BY
TAU 24 HOUR, MELOR SHOULD ATTAIN FULL BAROCLINICITY AND PASS EAST
OF MISAWA, JAPAN, AS A STRONG, JET-SUPPORTED BAROCLINIC SYSTEM. THE
MODEL AIDS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A LANDFALL SCENARIO WEST
OF TOKYO, JAPAN. HOWEVER, THE UKMO TRACKER, EGGR, IS THE EASTERN
OUTLIER AND TRACKS THE SYSTEM ROUGHLY 20 NM WEST OF TOKYO, JAPAN.
THIS FORECAST DOES NOT TAKE MELOR AS FAR EAST AS THE EGRR TRACKER,
THOUGH IT DOES TRACK EAST OF THE JTWC CONSENSUS.//

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[ozonepete]

Looks like the center is just missing the Kii peninsula.

[HURAKAN]

Most of the precipitation is inland

[ozonepete]

Yeah, and the center/eye is almost bare now and has become pretty large - all of the convection has been sheared off to the north. It looks like it's just south of the Kii Peninsula or maybe the northern part of the eye is over the peninsula, but I can't find any light winds ther, so that makes me think the center is offshore still and moving rapidly towards Tokyo.

[ozonepete]

Almost calm winds around Yokohama right now, just southwest of Tokyo.

Kamakurashi, KANAGAWAKEN (PWS)
60.1 °F
Heavy Showers Rain Mist
Humidity: 98%
Dew Point: 60 °F
Wind: 4.9 mphfrom the WSW
Wind Gust: 8.1 mph
Visibility: 0.7 miles

[ozonepete]

Winds are E at 23mph at Chiba and WNW 24mph at Tokyo; Pressure 29.39 at both places. So center must be somewhere just east of Tokyo. I'm guessing a good part of the the center is offshore and the strongest winds are out over the water to the NE of the eye/center. Otherwise, boy has this weakened.

[ozonepete]

Just found another reading for Shizuoka, further southwest of Tokyo. Since they are at 29.15, it would appear the large center is still SW of Tokyo. I suspect the Yokohama obs I posted is not valid.

72 °F
Light Showers Rain
Humidity: 88%
Dew Point: 68 °F
Wind: 32 mph from the SE
Wind Gust: 58 mph
Pressure: 29.15 in (Falling)
Visibility: 3.7 miles

[ozonepete]

Another ob from Hammatsu Ab:

3 PM EDT (19) Oct 07
Temp: 69 (21)
Dewpoint: 68 (20)
Pressure: 28.85 (0977)
Wind: ESE 47
weather: rain showers.

So MELOR's still got some punch; Tokyo should really pick up in an hour or two.

[breeze]

Has anyone heard from Infdidoll yet?

I pray that you are doing ok.


Please let us know

I keep finding myself checking in to see if Infdidoll has posted, as well. I feel hopeful that
base personnel has taken care of them. I'm hoping all of our members from Japan are safe!

[cycloneye]

WTPN34 PGTW 072100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 20W (MELOR) WARNING NR 035
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z --- NEAR 33.7N 136.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 035 DEGREES AT 26 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 33.7N 136.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 37.5N 140.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 40.7N 144.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
072100Z POSITION NEAR 34.6N 137.4E. TYPHOON (TY) 20W (MELOR),
LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM SOUTHWEST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS
TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 26 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT
ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS TY 20W BEGINNING TO UNDERGO
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ET) WITH THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLCC)
BECOMING EXPOSED AND FRONTOGENESIS STARTING TO OCCUR ON THE SOUTHERN
AND NORTHEASTERN SIDES OF THE SYSTEM. HIGH LEVELS OF VERTICAL
WINDSHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER JAPAN ARE STARTING
TO DECOUPLE THE UPPER-LEVELS FROM THE LLCC. A 071659Z AMSR-E IMAGE
CONFIRMS THE BEGINNING OF ET WITH A VERY PRONOUNCED DEEP CONVECTIVE
COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE SOUTH OUT OF THE SYSTEM, AND AN OPEN
CENTER IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND IS ACCELERATING AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL WEST OF TOKYO
IN THE NEXT 6 HOURS AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS JAPAN BEFORE
MOVING BACK OVER WATER AFTER TAU 12 AND BECOMING FULLY ET BY TAU 24.
OBJECTIVE AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS, BUT
THEN START TO DIVERGE IN ALONG-TRACK SPEED AFTER THE SYSTEM BECOMES
FULLY EXTRATROPICAL. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS
25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080300Z, 080900Z AND 081500Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL STORM 19W (PARMA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

[ozonepete]

I'm home, so I can post images again. Here's the latest IR satellite image. It clearly shows the extratropical transition pretty much already done. Note the cold front trailing from the center and all of the dry air being brought into the center on the developing dry conveyor belt. The highest wind reports I've seen so far are still about 35 knots with gusts to 55 knots, but there may be some stronger ones to come in the farthest east regions as the center passes.

The last from Shizuoka - Hamamatsu AB, JP (Airport):
Wind: 31 mph from the SSW
Wind Gust: 53 mph
Pressure: 28.88 in (Falling)