WPAC: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM LUPIT (22W)

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Re: Re:

#1141 Postby ozonepete » Sat Oct 24, 2009 8:16 pm

Chacor wrote:
ozonepete wrote:Personally I prefer to keep calling it by its name and treating it as tropical as far as warnings go until the winds die down, but I understand why they don't.


Actually, RSMC Tokyo tends to continue warning on systems as tropical cyclones until only after transition is fully complete and there are no more hints of a warm core, usually resulting on the JMA warning on an X-knot severe TS which looks like crap and on which the JTWC stopped warnings for ages ago.


LOL on the "looks like crap" comment. Thanks for the clarification, Chacor. Although I've spent a few seasons watching the WestPAc, I'm not neraly familiar as you and some of the other guys are, so I am very grateful for your input. I didn't know that. :)
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Re:

#1142 Postby ozonepete » Sat Oct 24, 2009 8:21 pm

Chacor wrote:JMA are now issuing hourly bulletins due to the Japanese threat.


Good news. Lupit (extratropical or not) could still really weaken, but better to err on the side of caution. If I had to stick my neck out, I'd say that this is not a particularly strong front with a powerful 500mb shortwave lobe coming in, so I wouldn't expect a really powerful extratropical cyclone, but still, why not let them know that some damaging winds are posssible?
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#1143 Postby StormingB81 » Sat Oct 24, 2009 8:28 pm

Suprised we werent put in a TCCOR when the chance of 50 knots are greater is still a possibility. Someone may have to answer questions when this storm leaves.
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Re: WPAC: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM LUPIT (22W)

#1144 Postby Aslkahuna » Sat Oct 24, 2009 8:52 pm

Only if you get the 50 kt winds. CORs are declared by the Base and not the Weather Station.

Steve
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Re: WPAC: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM LUPIT (22W)

#1145 Postby breeze » Sat Oct 24, 2009 8:54 pm

Current Conditions

Naha City, JP (Airport)


Updated: 10:30 AM JST on October 25, 2009
Light Rain
70 °F
Light Rain
Humidity: 83%
Dew Point: 64 °F
Wind: 31 mph from the NE
Wind Gust: 43 mph
Pressure: 29.56 in (Falling)

Visibility: 6.2 miles
UV: 2 out of 16
Clouds:
Few 1000 ft
Scattered Clouds 5000 ft
Overcast 9000 ft
(Above Ground Level)

http://www.wunderground.com/global/stations/47930.html
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#1146 Postby Chacor » Sat Oct 24, 2009 9:00 pm

01z bulletin, issued by JMA at 0150z:
Currently 210 km south of Naha City

Center position N24°20'(24.3°)
E127°35'(127.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more Wide 110km(60NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more NW520km(280NM)
SE370km(200NM)
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#1147 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Oct 24, 2009 9:05 pm

Image

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Chacor, welcome back!!! Long time no see you!
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Re: WPAC: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM LUPIT (22W)

#1148 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 24, 2009 9:06 pm

0300z JTWC Warning=60kts

WTPN31 PGTW 250300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 22W (LUPIT) WARNING NR 045
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250000Z --- NEAR 24.6N 127.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 035 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.6N 127.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 26.4N 130.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 28.5N 133.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 31.4N 137.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 33 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 35.9N 143.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 38 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 45.4N 159.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
250300Z POSITION NEAR 25.0N 128.2E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 22W (LUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 105 NM SOUTH
OF OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING STEADILY NORTHEASTWARD ALONG
THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE AND IS NOW FORECAST TO MAINTAIN
TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY AND COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY
TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250000Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 250900Z, 251500Z, 252100Z AND 260300Z.//
NNNN

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#1149 Postby Chacor » Sat Oct 24, 2009 9:30 pm

Thanks HURAKAN, I've been very busy in real life so only have the time to check on here during the weekends.
Last edited by Chacor on Sat Oct 24, 2009 9:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re:

#1150 Postby ozonepete » Sat Oct 24, 2009 9:32 pm

Chacor wrote:Thanks HURAKAN, I've been very busy in real life so only have the times to check on here during the weekends.


Hurakan ROCKS!
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Re: WPAC: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM LUPIT (22W)

#1151 Postby ozonepete » Sat Oct 24, 2009 9:39 pm

Aslkahuna wrote:Only if you get the 50 kt winds. CORs are declared by the Base and not the Weather Station.

Steve


Does that mean that CORS are not from the JMA but rather from the American military?
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#1152 Postby Chacor » Sat Oct 24, 2009 9:44 pm

TCCORs are issued by the US DOD, yeah. Japan hasn't such a warning scale, only warnings for 30kt and 50kt winds.
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Re:

#1153 Postby ozonepete » Sat Oct 24, 2009 10:09 pm

Chacor wrote:TCCORs are issued by the US DOD, yeah. Japan hasn't such a warning scale, only warnings for 30kt and 50kt winds.


Thanks, I could not get a handle on it. I've been googling it but the info is really fuzzy...
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Re: WPAC: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM LUPIT (22W)

#1154 Postby Aslkahuna » Sat Oct 24, 2009 10:42 pm

Not only are the TCCORS a US Military declaration, but they are based upon the wind forecast made by the Military Forecasters on station based upon the advisories issued by JTWC. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center is the OFFICIAL source of Tropical Cyclone advisories for all US Military operations and Facilities.

Steve
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Re: WPAC: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM LUPIT (22W)

#1155 Postby ozonepete » Sat Oct 24, 2009 10:48 pm

Aslkahuna wrote:Not only are the TCCORS a US Military declaration, but they are based upon the wind forecast made by the Military Forecasters on station based upon the advisories issued by JTWC. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center is the OFFICIAL source of Tropical Cyclone advisories for all US Military operations and Facilities.

Steve


Thanks, Steve!
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Re: WPAC: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM LUPIT (22W)

#1156 Postby Infdidoll » Sat Oct 24, 2009 10:49 pm

Aslkahuna is correct. Here is the website we go by with the TCCOR level and an explanation of what each level means: http://kadenaforcesupport.com/weather.html
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Re: WPAC: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM LUPIT (22W)

#1157 Postby ozonepete » Sat Oct 24, 2009 10:54 pm

Infdidoll wrote:Aslkahuna is correct. Here is the website we go by with the TCCOR level and an explanation of what each level means: http://kadenaforcesupport.com/weather.html


So you are under TCCOR 4 right now?
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Re: Re:

#1158 Postby WindRunner » Sat Oct 24, 2009 10:56 pm

ozonepete wrote:
Chacor wrote:TCCORs are issued by the US DOD, yeah. Japan hasn't such a warning scale, only warnings for 30kt and 50kt winds.


Thanks, I could not get a handle on it. I've been googling it but the info is really fuzzy...


All (more or less) of the warnings that we get to see in Asia are done with signals and such...this is Hong Kong's system, which is similar to what they use in Macau. China is a bit too big to warn with a system such as that due to the larger areas. JMA's warning system isn't any fancier then what the NWS does for marine zones...you can see the JMA equivalent here and land areas here - the text warnings/forecasts for the marine zones come up if you click them, and the warnings for the Okinawa prefectures come up if you click in the Okinawa inset. You can see all the prefectures are under a Gale warning (in addition to 2-4 other warnings, depending on what is expected in each of the areas), and since they aren't storm warnings, it looks like JMA isn't expecting 50kt winds on the islands out there. It'll probably prove a safe bet, but a close call for sure.
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Re: Re:

#1159 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Oct 24, 2009 10:58 pm

ozonepete wrote:
Chacor wrote:Thanks HURAKAN, I've been very busy in real life so only have the times to check on here during the weekends.


Hurakan ROCKS!


Thanks for the appreciation!!! :oops: :oops: :oops:

Image

Looking more extratropical by the minute
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Re: Re:

#1160 Postby ozonepete » Sat Oct 24, 2009 11:31 pm

WindRunner wrote:It'll probably prove a safe bet, but a close call for sure.


I totally agree. And it's obvious you know what you're talking about.
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