ARABIAN SEA: CYCLONIC STORM PHYAN (04A)

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HURAKAN
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#21 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Nov 09, 2009 11:37 pm

Image

WTIO31 PGTW 100300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (FOUR) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (FOUR) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z --- NEAR 13.7N 70.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 13.7N 70.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 15.4N 70.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 17.2N 71.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 19.6N 71.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 21.9N 72.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 25.9N 73.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
100300Z POSITION NEAR 14.1N 70.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04A, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 340 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) HAS ELEVATED OVER
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE
DEEPEST CONVECTION HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY BIASED TOWARDS THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND HAS WEAKENED SOME. VWS IS FORECAST TO
PROGRESSIVELY INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL,
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ANALYZED OVER THE EASTERN ARABIAN SEA. THE
CYCLONE'S INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON A 2.5 DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY (OR 35 KNOTS) FROM PGTW, WHICH IS UNCHANGED FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE CYCLONE IS STILL EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY, BUT
AT A MORE CONSERVATIVE RATE, BASED ON ALREADY-ELEVATED VWS.
EXCESSIVE VWS (JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL) WILL INITIATE WEAKENING AFTER
TAU 36. THE TRACK FORECAST MIRRORS AN OBJECTIVE AIDS PACKAGE THAT IS
RELATIVELY CONSISTENT IN PROGING A GENERAL NORTHWARD TRACK (ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE),
WITH LANDFALL EXPECTED AROUND TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 100000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100900Z, 101500Z,
102100Z AND 110300Z.//
NNNN
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#22 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Nov 09, 2009 11:38 pm

ARB 03/2009/03 Dated: 10. 11. 2009
Time of issue: 0250 hours IST

Sub: Depression over Arabian Sea

The depression over southeast and adjoining eastcentral Arabian Sea has moved northwestwards and lay centred at 2330 hrs IST of today, the 9th November, 2009 near Lat. 12.00 N and Long. 71.00 E, about 200 km northwest of Amini Divi, 400 km west-southwest of Mangalore and 500 km southwest of Goa. The system is likely to intensify into a deep depression during next 12 hours and move in a north-northwesterly direction initially.

Under its influence, rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at isolated places is likely over Kerala, coastal Karnataka and Lakshadweep during next 48 hours. Rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at isolated places is also likely over Konkan & Goa and Madhya Maharashtra during the same period.

Squally winds speed reaching 45-55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph are likely along and off Kerala, Karnataka and Goa coasts and over Lakshadweep area during next 48 hours. Sea condition will be rough to very rough over Lakshadweep area and along Kerala, Karnataka and Goa coasts. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the Sea along and off these coasts.

Next bulletin will be issued at 0730 hrs IST of tomorrow, the 10th November 2009.
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Re: ARABIAN SEA: DEPRESSION (04A)

#23 Postby GOODSTUFF » Tue Nov 10, 2009 12:37 am

Image

Hey Guys

just found your guys site and thought I would share

I am on a boat that is in the plath of this storm - I will not have internet in the next couple of hours

but I will "take notes" and post later
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Re: ARABIAN SEA: DEPRESSION (04A)

#24 Postby P.K. » Tue Nov 10, 2009 2:41 am

Upgraded to a Deep Depression.

DEMS–RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 10-11-2009

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC OF 10 NOVEMBER, 2009 BASED ON 0300 UTC OF 10 NOVEMBER, 2009 (.)

THE DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHEAST AND ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA MOVED NORTHWARDS, INTENSIFIED INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION AND LAY CENTRED AT 0300 UTC OF TODAY, THE 10 NOVEMBER, 2009 OVER EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA NEAR LAT. 13.00 N AND LONG. 70.50 E, ABOUT 470 KM WEST OF MANGALORE (43285), 470 KM SOUTHWEST OF GOA (43192).AND 700 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI (43003).

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES FURTHER ORGANISATION OF CONVECTION LEADING TO CURVE BANDS FEATURES. THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T2.0. ASSOCIATED BROKEN INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION LIES OVER EASTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA AND ADJOINING KARNATAKA, GOA AND MAHARASHTRA COASTS AND OVER LAKSHADWEEP AREA. BETWEEN LAT. 8.00 AND 19.00N TO THE EAST LONG. 65.00E.

SUSTAINED MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND SPEED IS ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 30 KNOTS ARROUND SYSTEM CENTRE. THE STATE OF THE SEA IS VERY ROUGH AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT 998 HPA.



Date/Time(IST)
Position (lat. 0N/long. 0E)
Sustained maximum surface wind speed (kmph)
10-11-.2009/0300
13.0/70.5
55-65 gusting to 75

10-11-.2009/0600
13.5/70.5
55-65 gusting to 75

10-11-.2009/1200
14.5/70.5
65-75 gusting to 85

10-11-.2009/1800
15.5/70.5
65-75 gusting to 85

1-11-.2009/0000
17.0/71.0
65-75 gusting to 85

11-11-.2009/1200
19.0/71.5
65-75 gusting to 85

12-11-.2009/0000
21.5/72.5
65-75 gusting to 85

12-11-.2009/1200
23.5/73.5
60-70 gusting to 80

13-11-.2009/0000
25.5/74.5
50-60 gusting to 70

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF HORIZONTAL WIND OVER THE REGION IS MODERATE TO HIGH (AROUND 15-25 KNOTS). SEA SURFACE TEMPRATURE IS ABOUT 29-300C. THE SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE. AN UPPER TROPOSPHEREIC RIDGE ROUGHLY RUNS ALONG LATITUDE 13.00 N.

THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER INTO A CYCLONIC STORM AND MOVE IN A NORTHERLY DIRECTION FOR SOME MORE TIME AND THEN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARDS AND CROSS SOUTH GUJARAT AND NORTH KONKAN COAST BETWEEN MAHUVA AND DAHANU BY EARLY HOURS OF 12TH NOVEMBER, 2009.
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#25 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Nov 10, 2009 7:22 am

Image

Very heavy convection
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#26 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Nov 10, 2009 9:33 am

Image

Big burst
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#27 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Nov 10, 2009 9:52 am

Image

WTIO31 PGTW 101500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (FOUR) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (FOUR) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z --- NEAR 15.2N 71.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.2N 71.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 17.2N 71.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 19.4N 71.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 21.5N 71.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 23.5N 72.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 27.7N 73.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
101500Z POSITION NEAR 15.7N 71.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04A, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 245 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 100845Z TMI 37 GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A LARGE MONSOON-LIKE
CIRCULATION WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTH
SEMI-CIRCLE AND WEAK BANDING ELSEWHERE. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER HAS SLOWLY CONSOLIDATED UNDER FAVORABLE POLEWARD VENTING
AHEAD OF A MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROPAGATING OVER THE WESTERN
ARABIAN SEA, HOWEVER, THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN HELD STEADY
BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS FROM BOTH PGTW AND KNES
AND THE 35-KNOT UNFLAGGED SCATTEROMETER WINDS. TC 04A IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW-
TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND SHOULD TRACK UNDER INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE (INCLUDING
GFS, ECMWF, GFDN, NOGAPS, WBAR AND UKMO) ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH TAU 48 AND SUPPORT THIS NORTHWARD TRACK PHILOSOPHY. THE
SYSTEM SHOULD INTENSIFY 10-15 KNOTS OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS BUT IS
LIKELY TO WEAKEN QUICKLY AFTER TAU 24 DUE TO STRONG VWS IN EXCESS OF
50 KNOTS AND INTERACTION WITH LAND AFTER TAU 36. TC 04A IS EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE OVER LAND BETWEEN TAU 48 AND 72. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z AND
110300Z.//
NNNN
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#28 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Nov 10, 2009 9:53 am

Image

Latest
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Re:

#29 Postby GOODSTUFF » Tue Nov 10, 2009 10:33 am

Big burst


OUTSTANDING - thanks

this storm is going to pass right over my head
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#30 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Nov 10, 2009 10:48 am

Looks to be about 50 kt with a pressure around 992mb.
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#31 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Nov 10, 2009 10:54 am

Image

Latest
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Re:

#32 Postby ozonepete » Tue Nov 10, 2009 11:39 am

HURAKAN wrote:Latest


Hey Hurakan, how are you? Pretty impressive cyclone.

Just thought you might like this great IR sat from IMD. I always check this one out when there's action in the north Indian Ocean. I can't post images from here so I can only give you the link, but it's pretty cool.

http://www.imd.ernet.in/section/satmet/dynamic/insatsector-ir.htm
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Re: Re:

#33 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Nov 10, 2009 11:46 am

ozonepete wrote:
HURAKAN wrote:Latest


Hey Hurakan, how are you? Pretty impressive cyclone.

Just thought you might like this great IR sat from IMD. I always check this one out when there's action in the north Indian Ocean. I can't post images from here so I can only give you the link, but it's pretty cool.

http://www.imd.ernet.in/section/satmet/dynamic/insatsector-ir.htm


Image

Doing good, thanks. This system will bring a lot of rainfall to the area
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Re: ARABIAN SEA: DEEP DEPRESSION (04A)

#34 Postby P.K. » Tue Nov 10, 2009 3:33 pm

IMD now have this at T2.5 so I think they will be naming it shortly.
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Re: ARABIAN SEA: DEEP DEPRESSION (04A)

#35 Postby P.K. » Tue Nov 10, 2009 4:57 pm

Upgraded to Cyclonic Storm Phyan at 18Z. Winds at 35kts.
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#36 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Nov 10, 2009 5:17 pm

Image

Image

WTIO31 PGTW 102100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (FOUR) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (FOUR) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z --- NEAR 15.6N 71.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6N 71.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 17.5N 71.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 19.6N 71.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 21.8N 72.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 23.9N 72.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 28.0N 73.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
102100Z POSITION NEAR 16.1N 71.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04A, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 220 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) HAS GRADUALLY ELEVATED
OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN REACHES OF THE CIRCULATION DURING THE
PAST 06 HOURS. AS A RESULT, DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME PROGRESSIVELY
LIMITED WITHIN THESE QUADRANTS. SMALL BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION
CONTINUE TO FLARE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES HAS HELPED FUEL THESE BURSTS OF CONVECTION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
PGTW AND KNES RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 KNOTS, AND A 101318Z NOAA
QUIKSCAT IMAGE INDICATING 40 KNOTS (UNFLAGGED) NEAR THE LLCC. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS HEAVILY BASED ON A 101437Z SSMIS 37H MICROWAVE
IMAGE. THE CYCLONE IS STILL EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWARD
ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING
RIDGE TO THE EAST. INTENSIFICATION IS STILL LIKELY ALONG THE
FORECAST TRACK (DESPITE VWS) DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED
OUTFLOW AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING UPPER LEVEL, SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL VWS WILL
DRAMATICALLY INCREASE OVER THE LLCC, AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT WILL
TAPER. BOTH OF THESE FACTORS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAKENING. THE
CYCLONE WILL FALL APART OVER NORTHWESTERN INDIA BETWEEN 121800Z AND
131800Z. WBAR, EGRR, AND GFDN HAVE PULLED THE MODEL CONSENSUS
FURTHER WEST THAN ALL THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS. THOUGH A MORE WESTWARD
COMPONENT IS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE CURRENT STEERING ENVIRONMENT, THE
FORECAST TRACK BLENDS THE CURRENT CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 14 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 110300Z, 110900Z, 111500Z AND 112100Z.//
NNNN
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#37 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Nov 10, 2009 5:20 pm

10/2030 UTC 16.2N 71.6E T3.5/3.5 04A -- Arabian Sea

3.5 = 55 knots
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#38 Postby GOODSTUFF » Tue Nov 10, 2009 9:18 pm

BIG HAT TIP FOR YOU GUYS

ya'll have made my morning reporting easy

02:00 Z Pipavav, wind avg 20 knots, rain just started

very short chop (5 sec) and confused due to the strong currents

cyclone warnings have been issued

again, thanks
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Any port in a storm will do - CHEERS !

ozonepete
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Re:

#39 Postby ozonepete » Tue Nov 10, 2009 9:22 pm

GOODSTUFF wrote:BIG HAT TIP FOR YOU GUYS

ya'll have made my morning reporting easy

02:00 Z Pipavav, wind avg 20 knots, rain just started

very short chop (5 sec) and confused due to the strong currents

cyclone warnings have been issued

again, thanks


Where are you, dude?!?! I'm assuming you're in port! But where?
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ozonepete
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Re: ARABIAN SEA: CYCLONIC STORM PHYAN (04A)

#40 Postby ozonepete » Tue Nov 10, 2009 9:32 pm

Though this satellite presentation doesn't look bad at first glance, all of your trained eyes can see southwesterly shear is starting to take its toll. Phyan is moving into 30-40 knots of southwesterly shear now and is undergoing land interaction as well.

Image

Look at this shear. Brutal!

Image

Significant rainfall coming to the west central coast:

Image
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