SIO: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 4 (EX-ANJA)

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Re: SIO : SEVERE TROPICAL STORM ANJA

#41 Postby RattleMan » Sat Nov 14, 2009 10:59 pm

WTXS31 PGTW 150300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ANJA) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
...
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S (ANJA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS REMAINED QUASISTATIONARY OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS. THERE HAVE BEEN SIGNIFICANT CHANGES SINCE THE
PREVIOUS WARNING. THE SYSTEM WAS LIKELY MUCH STRONGER THAN 45 KNOTS
AT 141800Z BASED ON A SLEW OF MICROWAVE IMAGERY THAT INDICATED
INTENSE CONVECTION SURROUNDING AN EYE
. DVORAK ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN
MISREPRESENTATIVE OF THE ACTUAL INTENSITY BASED ON THE SMALL SIZE OF
THE SYSTEM.


An admittance
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#42 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Nov 14, 2009 11:11 pm

:uarrow: Oops, I did it again. LOL
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#43 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Nov 14, 2009 11:15 pm

15/0230 UTC 13.0S 70.5E T5.0/5.0 ANJA -- Southwest Indian

5.0 = 90 knots
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#44 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Nov 14, 2009 11:42 pm

Image

BOOM ... BOOM ... POW
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#45 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Nov 15, 2009 12:43 am

Definitely going through RI. Looks like about 105 kt right now (pressure guess 956mb).

Back at 1800Z (when they mentioned the intensity was likely way off), it was probably about 65 kt. At 0000Z, 90 kt seemed reasonable.
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#46 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Nov 15, 2009 12:53 am

CrazyC83 wrote:Definitely going through RI. Looks like about 105 kt right now (pressure guess 956mb).


UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 15 NOV 2009 Time : 050000 UTC
Lat : 13:02:40 S Lon : 70:23:11 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.5 / 962.8mb/102.0kt



Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.5 5.9 5.9

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.8mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 29 km

Center Temp : +10.1C Cloud Region Temp : -62.7C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
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#47 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Nov 15, 2009 12:57 am

Image

Image

Latest
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#48 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Nov 15, 2009 1:36 am

Image

NRL - 100 knots
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Re: SIO : SEVERE TROPICAL STORM ANJA

#49 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Nov 15, 2009 1:39 am

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 15 NOV 2009 Time : 053000 UTC
Lat : 13:08:47 S Lon : 70:21:55 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.6 / 960.7mb/104.6kt



Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.6 5.8 5.8

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +3.1mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 29 km

Center Temp : +11.1C Cloud Region Temp : -61.4C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
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#50 Postby Chacor » Sun Nov 15, 2009 1:39 am

Réunion says 80 kt TC now, peak forecast 90kt ITC.

WTIO30 FMEE 150637

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/4/20092010
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANJA)

2.A POSITION 2009/11/15 AT 0600 UTC :
13.1S / 70.4E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : QUASI-STATIONARY 2 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.0/5.0 /D 1.0/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 960 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 45 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 120 SE: 220 SO: 250 NO: 120
50 KT NE: 040 SE: 040 SO: 040 NO: 040

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/11/15 18 UTC: 13.2S/69.7E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
24H: 2009/11/16 06 UTC: 13.6S/68.4E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
36H: 2009/11/16 18 UTC: 14.6S/67.0E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
48H: 2009/11/17 06 UTC: 15.9S/66.0E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
60H: 2009/11/17 18 UTC: 17.4S/65.3E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
72H: 2009/11/18 06 UTC: 18.9S/65.3E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=5.0+
REANALYSIS AT 00Z : T=4.0+.
ANJA IS A MIDGET WHICH REACTS QUICKLY TO THE EXCELLENT ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS. THEREFORE THE DVORAK CONSTRAINTS ARE DIFFICULT TO RESPECT.
DUE TO THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM, MSLP IS ESTIMATED HIGHER.

THE SYSTEM IS DEEPENING RAPIDLY AND IS QUASI-STATIONARY.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE, WITH A GOOD EQUATORWARD
INFLOW, A VERY GOOD POLARWARD INFLOW THANKS TO THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
MOVING JUST SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM.
THE SYSTEME IS STILL UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, WITH A MAIN EFFICIENT
UPPER LEVELS POLEWARDS OUTFLOW.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE WITHIN
THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THEN MOONSON AND TRADES FLOWS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN,
AND SST BECOME COOLER, LIMITATING INTENSIFICATION.

THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AND THEN TO ACCELERATE SOUTHWESTWARDS. THE
STEERING FLOW IS A MID-LATITUDES RIDGE IN THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM
WHICH WILL MOVE GRADUALLY IN THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM.=
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Re: SIO : SEVERE TROPICAL STORM ANJA

#51 Postby P.K. » Sun Nov 15, 2009 3:29 am

I notice from that last advisory they now have it at T4.0 for 00Z instead of the T3.5 they had it at when they issued the 00Z advisory.
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#52 Postby Cyclenall » Sun Nov 15, 2009 5:13 am

This TC was an Invest yesterday when I checked in I think and then just a bit over 24 hours later it's a 90 knot 1-min Cyclone! That is sick. The JTWC tracking information had a 45 knot increase in 6 hours (doubling from 45 knots to 90 knots). This was certainly an error.
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Re: SIO : TROPICAL CYCLONE ANJA

#53 Postby Grifforzer » Sun Nov 15, 2009 5:38 am

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 15 NOV 2009 Time : 093000 UTC
Lat : 13:11:49 S Lon : 70:08:11 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.9 / 953.7mb/112.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.9 6.2 6.4

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +3.3mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 25 km

Center Temp : +11.1C Cloud Region Temp : -69.0C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 3.7T/24hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF


---
115 (135 MPH) around T6.0
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#54 Postby Grifforzer » Sun Nov 15, 2009 5:52 am

Image

hmm with such a increase in intensity, I am surprise JTWC did not issue a 0900 AM advisory
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#55 Postby senorpepr » Sun Nov 15, 2009 6:10 am

Grifforzer wrote:hmm with such a increase in intensity, I am surprise JTWC did not issue a 0900 AM advisory


If I'm not mistaken, Southern Hemisphere storms are routinely issued every 12 hours. Since Anja is not affecting land, no need for an update.
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#56 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Nov 15, 2009 6:37 am

Image

Track
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Re: SIO : SEVERE TROPICAL STORM ANJA

#57 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Nov 15, 2009 6:38 am

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 15 NOV 2009 Time : 103000 UTC
Lat : 13:13:01 S Lon : 70:03:56 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.1 / 948.7mb/117.4kt



Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.1 6.3 6.4

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +3.3mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 23 km

Center Temp : +5.7C Cloud Region Temp : -69.6C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 3.7T/24hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
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#58 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Nov 15, 2009 6:39 am

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NRL - 115 Knots
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#59 Postby Chacor » Sun Nov 15, 2009 7:16 am

How about a topic name update? Already a CT, possibly a CTI at the 12z bulletin.
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#60 Postby Cookie » Sun Nov 15, 2009 7:17 am

:eek: still get amazed out how fast these systems can grow in the perfect conditions.
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