WTIO30 FMEE 160629
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 9/4/20092010
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANJA)
2.A POSITION 2009/11/16 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.1S / 68.9E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY EIGHT DECIMAL NINE
DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 7 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.5/5.5 /D 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 950 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 85 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 24 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 250 SE: 250 SO: 150 NO: 100
50 KT NE: 050 SE: 050 SO: 050 NO: 050
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 850 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/11/16 18 UTC: 14.9S/67.8E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
24H: 2009/11/17 06 UTC: 16.3S/66.7E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
36H: 2009/11/17 18 UTC: 17.7S/66.2E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
48H: 2009/11/18 06 UTC: 19.3S/66.1E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.
60H: 2009/11/18 18 UTC: 21.2S/66.9E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.
72H: 2009/11/19 06 UTC: 23.1S/68.9E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T AND CI=5.5-
ANJA REMAINS A SMALL SIZE SYSTEM AND ITS INTENSITY IS STATIONARY
DURING LAST NIGHT.
ACCORDING TO THE LAST STALLITE IMAGERY, ANJA BEGINS TO TURN
SOUTHWESTWARD
.
THE SYSTEM ENVIRONMENT IS STILL FAVORABLE WITH GOOD LOW LEVELS
INFLOWS
AND POOR VERTICAL UPPER LEVELS WIND SHEAR AND A RATHER GOOD UPPER
LEVELS
DIVERGENCE POLEWARD.
THE EFFICIENCY OF THE POLAR OUTFLOW IS WEAKENING DUE TO THE WESTERLY
JET
MOVING EASTWARD.
THE STEERING FLOW IS THE MID TROPOSPHERE RIDGE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM
WHICH
MOVES EASTWARD.
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARDS THEN RECURVING
SOUTHWARDS BEFORE EVACUATING IN THE MID LATITUDES AT MEDIUM RANGE.
ON THIS FORECASTED TRACK, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
GOOD
DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
BEYOND THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK OVER COOLER SST, SOUTH OF 16S.
UPPER LEVELS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER TAU
36H.=
NNNN
![Image](http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/La_Reunion/TGPR/saison/images/trajectoire/ZOOM_Derniere_04.png)