SPO : TROPICAL CYCLONE MICK (04P)

[caribepr]

Very good, glad to hear it! I read some homes have lost roofs, but no injuries so far...hoping it stays that way!

[Crostorm]

Cyclone claims a life while two missing
http://www.radiofiji.com.fj/fullstory.php?id=24478

[HURAKAN]

14/0830 UTC 18.4S 178.6E T3.5/3.5 MICK -- Southwest Pacific



Looking bad now

[caribepr]

It was moving so fast...I thought it would not be as bad I still haven't heard from my friend but I'm pretty sure that is a power thing more than anything else. I hope.

[caribepr]

Not good.

http://www.radiofiji.com.fj/fullstory.php?id=24477

[HURAKAN]

WTPS31 PGTW 141500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (MICK) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (MICK) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141200Z --- NEAR 18.5S 178.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.5S 178.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 19.2S 179.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 20.1S 179.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 21.6S 177.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
141500Z POSITION NEAR 18.7S 178.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04P (MICK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 80 NM
SOUTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS DUE TO LAND INTERACTION
AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING
UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH, WHICH IS BEGINNING TO SHEAR THE DEEP
CONVECTION SOUTHEAST. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 45 TO 65 KNOTS. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN
THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE RAPIDLY WEAKENING CONVECTIVE
SIGNATURE. TC MICK IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE WITHIN
THE WESTERLY FLOW. TC O4P WILL TRACK INTO A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT WITH
STRONG VWS (GREATER THAN 50 KNOTS), COOL SST (LESS THAN 26C), AND
UNFAVORABLE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) NEAR TAU 12 AND SHOULD COMPLETE ETT
BY TAU 36. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z
IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150300Z AND 151500Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[caribepr]

Looks like it's still pretty messy out there

[caribepr]

Just heard from my friend. He's fine, the area didn't do so well as the center (as a cat 2) passed only a few miles from his location...lots of flooding and structural damage. He's zipping out toward the Marshall's in the next 24 hours. Thus endeth another storm tale, a good ending in this case!

[islanda]

thats good to hear. most of capital still without power except those with generators. business houses that announced that they would be open had to retract and told their employees to stay home as buses(main form of transport here) were still not running till roads are cleared of debris and fallen trees. luckily power came back for my area after only 1-2 hrs yesterday during the height of the storm. we were relatively lucky this time around, the backend of the storm was a non-event. Am worried next time people might become complacent and think its all over when the eye passes over like it did this time.(brunt of the storm was in the east and south semi-circle).

[caribepr]

It sounds like you have much the same infrastructure as we do around here. It's frustrating every year and people get hurt and die needlessly because they don't realize the power of Nature.

I'm glad you came through relatively well, and thanks for keeping up with the reports...helped me a lot!

[HURAKAN]

WTPS31 PGTW 150300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (MICK) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (MICK) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150000Z --- NEAR 19.1S 179.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.1S 179.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 19.5S 179.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 20.2S 178.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 21.0S 177.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
150300Z POSITION NEAR 19.2S 180.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04P (MICK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 155 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE LAST
24 HOURS SINCE CROSSING FIJI AS A 70-KNOT SYSTEM AS IT HAS
ENCOUNTERED COLDER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND UNFAVORABLE
NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ACCORDINGLY, RECENT ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FULLY-EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH WANING CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE
SOUTHEAST, INDICATING THE SYSTEM HAS DECOUPLED FROM THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS BASED ON DECLINING DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES AND LEANS TOWARDS THE HIGHER CURRENT
INTENSITIES (CI'S) OF 45 KNOTS IN CONSIDERATION OF THE 142145Z ASCAT
PASS. OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS, MICK WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
UNDER INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND WILL
DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 151500Z AND
160300Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Not much left

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Sanibel]

Missed a South Pacific landfaller.