TIMOR SEA : TROPICAL CYCLONE LAURENCE (06S)

Crostorm · **Posted:** Mon Dec 14, 2009 10:54 pm

Weather Troughton Island Observations

Code:

                  km/h             km/h     °C     °C     °C     %     mm              hPa    
Tue 08:00 WST   S 128km/h    187km/h    26.2    26.0    29.0    99    103.6    982.9hPa

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/station.j ... st=ob&ut=1

Crostorm · **Posted:** Mon Dec 14, 2009 11:01 pm

HURAKAN · **Posted:** Mon Dec 14, 2009 11:14 pm

This system became very impressive in a hurry

HurricaneBill · **Posted:** Tue Dec 15, 2009 12:01 am

dwsqos2 wrote:

Troughton Island Observations

That is a time-sensitive link, but the peak 10-minute wind observed was 74 knots, and the later peak gust was 101 knots. The site elevation is 6 meters. Needless to say, that is quite impressive.

If that's true, then the BoM and JTWC are underestimating the intensity of this storm. A 10-min sustained wind of 74KT translates to a 1-min sustained wind of around 84KT.

This storm is well above hurricane intensity.

Crostorm · **Posted:** Tue Dec 15, 2009 12:41 am

IDW24100
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Media: Transmitters serving the area between Kalumburu and Mitchell Plateau are
requested to USE the Standard Emergency Warning Signal before broadcasting the
following warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 32
Issued at 12:05 pm WST on Tuesday, 15 December 2009
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal areas from Kalumburu to Cockatoo Island,
extending inland to include Drysdale River and Mt Barnett.

A Cyclone WATCH continues for coastal areas from Cockatoo Island to Beagle Bay.

The Cyclone WARNING from Wyndham to Kalumburu has been cancelled.

At 11:00 am WST Severe Tropical Cyclone Laurence, Category 3 was estimated to be
85 kilometres west northwest of Kalumburu and
85 kilometres north northeast of Mitchell Plateau and
moving southwest at 12 kilometres per hour.

The VERY DESTRUCTIVE core of SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE Laurence is moving
southwest close to the Kimberley coast.

VERY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 185 kilometres per hour are being
experienced near the coast just south of Troughton Island and are expected to
extend southwest along the coast, possibly as far as Mitchell Plateau, during
today. DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 130 kilometres per hour may extend
further southwest to Kuri Bay overnight. SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE Laurence is
small system and the DESTRUCTIVE winds do not extend far from the centre.

GALES with gusts to 110 kilometres per hour may extend further along the coast,
reaching as far as Cockatoo Island on Thursday morning and as far as Beagle Bay
later on Thursday or Friday.

HEAVY RAIN is expected to continue over the north Kimberley region, extending
into the western Kimberley during today and Wednesday.
FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:
YELLOW ALERT: People in or near the communities of Kalumburu and Mitchell
Plateau should be taking action.
BLUE ALERT: People in or near the communities of Kuri Bay and Cockatoo Island
should start taking precautions.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Laurence at 11:00 am WST:
.Centre located near...... 14.0 degrees South 125.9 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 35 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the southwest at 12 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 185 kilometres per hour and weakening
.Severity category........ 3
.Central pressure......... 975 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 3:00 pm WST Tuesday 15 December.Cyclone
advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone

Macrocane · **Posted:** Tue Dec 15, 2009 1:08 am

I think that JTWC should issue intermidiate warnings in cases like this. BOM has now a better estimation that is supported by the observations in the affected locations.

HURAKAN · **Posted:** Tue Dec 15, 2009 2:16 am

HURAKAN · **Posted:** Tue Dec 15, 2009 2:20 am

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 15 DEC 2009 Time : 053000 UTC
Lat : 13:46:18 S Lon : 125:32:15 E

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.3 / 973.2mb/ 72.2kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.3 4.3 3.1

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +3.2mb

Center Temp : -74.9C Cloud Region Temp : -73.3C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION w/ MW EYE

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : MW ON
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

HURAKAN · **Posted:** Tue Dec 15, 2009 2:25 am

15/0230 UTC 14.1S 126.0E T4.5/4.5 LAURENCE -- Southeast Indian

75 knots

HURAKAN · **Posted:** Tue Dec 15, 2009 3:01 am

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 33
Issued at 3:00 pm WST on Tuesday, 15 December 2009
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal areas from Kalumburu to Cockatoo Island,
extending inland to include Drysdale River and Mt Barnett.

A Cyclone WATCH continues for coastal areas from Cockatoo Island to Beagle Bay.

At 2:00 pm WST Severe Tropical Cyclone Laurence, Category 3 was estimated to be
120 kilometres west of Kalumburu and
160 kilometres northeast of Kuri Bay and
moving southwest at 15 kilometres per hour.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Laurence is a small but intense tropical cyclone moving
southwest close to the Kimberley coast. VERY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 185
kilometres per hour are being experienced on the coast close to the system
centre and are expected to extend along the coast as far as Mitchell Plateau
before the system weakens to Category 2 overnight. DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts
to 130 kilometres per hour are expected to extend southwest to Kuri Bay
overnight.

GALES with gusts to 110 kilometres per hour may extend further along the coast,
reaching as far as Cockatoo Island on Thursday morning and as far as Beagle Bay
later on Thursday or Friday.

HEAVY RAIN is expected to continue over the north Kimberley region, extending
into the western Kimberley overnight. Daily rainfall totals in excess of 100mm
are possible near the coast with totals decreasing further inland.
FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:
YELLOW ALERT: People in or near the communities of Kalumburu and Mitchell
Plateau should be taking action.
BLUE ALERT: People in or near the communities of Kuri Bay and Cockatoo Island
should start taking precautions.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Laurence at 2:00 pm WST:
.Centre located near...... 14.4 degrees South 125.5 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 35 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the southwest at 15 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 185 kilometres per hour and weakening
.Severity category........ 3
.Central pressure......... 975 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 6:00 pm WST Tuesday 15 December.Cyclone
advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone

Chacor · **Joined:** Mon Oct 02, 2006 11:43 pm **Posts:** 8209

AXAU01 APRF 150705
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0705 UTC 15/12/2009
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Laurence
Identifier: 01U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 14.4S
Longitude: 125.5E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: southwest [223 deg]
Speed of Movement: 8 knots [15 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 70 knots [130 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 100 knots [185 km/h]
Central Pressure: 975 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 45 nm [85 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 45 nm [85 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 45 nm [85 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 45 nm [85 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds: 15 nm [30 km]
Radius of Maximum Winds: 10 nm [20 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.5/4.5/1.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1005 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 60 nm [110 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 15/1800: 15.3S 124.8E: 045 [085]: 050 [095]: 988
+24: 16/0600: 16.0S 124.5E: 065 [120]: 040 [075]: 994
+36: 16/1800: 16.6S 124.7E: 100 [185]: 035 [065]: 996
+48: 17/0600: 17.1S 124.9E: 130 [240]: 030 [055]: 1000
+60: 17/1800: 17.5S 124.8E: 160 [295]: 025 [045]: 1002
+72: 18/0600: 17.6S 123.9E: 210 [390]: 020 [035]: 1004
REMARKS:
Laurence is a small but intense system, as demonstrated by the observations at
Troughton Island earlier today, where a peak gust of 185 km/h was measured as
the system went directly over the island. An eye has been evident on IR and VIS
imagery during the day with its best presentation being at 0430Z. DT peaked at
6.0 but other images produced a DT of only 5.0 based on a Enum of 5.5 [B
surround] with an elongated eye adjustment -0.5. The FT is set at 4.5 in
agrement with the PAT. ADT is running a little on the weak side having failed
to identify the eye signature.

The system is likely to weaken overnight due to the influence of land as it
tracks almost parallel to the coast toward Kuri Bay. On Wednesday the system is
likely to come under the influence of a mid-level trough to the west, leading to
a more south to southeasterly track; which will take it further inland and
continue the weakening trend.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 15/1300 UTC by Perth TCWC.

HURAKAN · **Posted:** Tue Dec 15, 2009 9:07 am

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 35
Issued at 9:00 pm WST on Tuesday, 15 December 2009
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Kalumburu to Derby,
extending inland to include Drysdale River and Mt Barnett.

A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Derby to Beagle Bay.

At 8:00 pm WST Severe Tropical Cyclone Laurence, Category 3 was estimated to be
90 kilometres north northeast of Kuri Bay and
200 kilometres northeast of Cockatoo Island and
moving southwest at 13 kilometres per hour.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Laurence is a small but intense tropical cyclone moving
southwest close to the Kimberley coast. VERY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 220
kilometres per hour are being experienced close to the system centre and are
expected to extend along the coast to Kuri Bay overnight.

GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour should extend further southwest
along the coast, reaching Cockatoo and Koolan Islands later Wednesday morning
and should the centre pass close by VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds are possible during
the middle part of the day. GALES may extend to Derby and Beagle Bay by
Thursday.

HEAVY RAIN is expected to continue over the north Kimberley region, extending
into the western Kimberley overnight. Daily rainfall totals in excess of 100mm
are possible near the coast with totals decreasing further inland.
FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:
RED ALERT: People in or near Kuri Bay need to go to shelter immediately.
YELLOW ALERT: People at or near Mitchell Plateau should be taking action.
BLUE ALERT: People in or near the communities of Koolan Island and Cockatoo
Island
should start taking precautions.
ALL CLEAR: People in Kalumburu are advised that wind danger has passed but you
need to take care to avoid any danger caused by the heavy rain.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Laurence at 8:00 pm WST:
.Centre located near...... 14.8 degrees South 124.9 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 30 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the southwest at 13 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 220 kilometres per hour and weakening
.Severity category........ 3
.Central pressure......... 960 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 12:00 am WST Wednesday 16 December.Cyclone
advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone

HURAKAN · **Posted:** Tue Dec 15, 2009 9:10 am

Very small eye

HURAKAN · **Posted:** Tue Dec 15, 2009 9:12 am

WTXS33 PGTW 150900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (LAURENCE) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (LAURENCE) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150600Z --- NEAR 14.4S 125.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.4S 125.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 15.2S 125.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 16.3S 124.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 17.4S 124.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 18.3S 123.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 19.2S 123.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
150900Z POSITION NEAR 14.6S 125.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (LAURENCE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 530 NM
NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. DESPITE ITS PROXIMITY TO THE
COAST, LAURENCE HAS INTENSIFIED TO NEAR 75 KNOTS (BASED ON 4.5
DVORAK FROM PGTW). OBSERVATIONS FROM TROUGHTON ISLAND INDICATE
SUSTAINED WINDS AS HIGH AS 74 KNOTS AS THE CYCLONE PASSED
APPROXIMATELY 12 HOURS AGO. IN CONTRAST TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST,
THE SYSTEM IS NOW EXPECTED TO TRACK DEEPER INTO INTERIOR AUSTRALIA
AND DISSIPATE NEAR TAU 48 OVER LAND. AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH
POSITIONED ALONG 105E, AND EXTENDING AS FAR EQUATORWARD AS 10S, IS
EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE CYCLONE AS
IT APPROACHES. THIS WILL INHIBIT WESTWARD MOTION AS THE STEERING
FLOW STRENGTHENS OUT OF THE NORTH, DRIVING LAURENCE INLAND. ALL
AVAILABLE CONSENSUS MEMBERS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF EGRR, INDICATE A
NOTICEABLE SOUTHWARD TURN INLAND BETWEEN TAU 24 AND 36, WITH MOST OF
THESE MEMBERS KEEPING THE CIRCULATION OVER LAND FOR 24 HOURS OR
GREATER. GFS, ECMWF, AND GFDN ATTEMPT TO PULL THE CIRCULATION BACK
OVER WATER, JUST NORTH OF PORT HEDLAND, AND SLOWLY REINTENSIFY THE
SYSTEM. IF THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK VERIFIES, THEN THIS IS NOT
LIKELY TO OCCUR GIVEN THE DURATION THE CIRCULATION WILL BE OVER
LAND. HOWEVER, IF THE TROUGH FILLS PRIOR TO PASSAGE, THE CYCLONE
COULD CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE COAST, MUCH STRONGER THAN
FORECAST, AND PROCEED BACK OVER WATER INTACT AND POSITIONED TO
REINTENSIFY. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z IS 16 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 152100Z AND 160900Z.
//
NNNN

HURAKAN · **Posted:** Tue Dec 15, 2009 10:20 am

NRL - 90 knots

HURAKAN · **Posted:** Tue Dec 15, 2009 10:53 am

Very small eye

Chacor · **Joined:** Mon Oct 02, 2006 11:43 pm **Posts:** 8209

Now 85 kt 10-min from Perth.

AXAU01 APRF 151315
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1315 UTC 15/12/2009
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Laurence
Identifier: 01U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 14.8S
Longitude: 124.9E
Location Accuracy: within 15 nm [30 km]
Movement Towards: southwest [229 deg]
Speed of Movement: 7 knots [13 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 85 knots [155 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 120 knots [220 km/h]
Central Pressure: 960 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 45 nm [85 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 35 nm [65 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 55 nm [100 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds: 15 nm [30 km]
Radius of Maximum Winds: 10 nm [20 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T5.0/5.0/D1.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 60 nm [110 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 16/0000: 15.6S 124.2E: 045 [085]: 085 [155]: 959
+24: 16/1200: 16.6S 123.9E: 075 [140]: 070 [130]: 972
+36: 17/0000: 17.1S 123.9E: 110 [200]: 050 [095]: 986
+48: 17/1200: 17.6S 123.9E: 140 [260]: 040 [075]: 992
+60: 18/0000: 17.9S 123.1E: 190 [345]: 030 [055]: 999
+72: 18/1200: 18.1S 122.4E: 235 [435]: 030 [055]: 999
REMARKS:
Laurence is a small but intense system, as demonstrated by the observations at
Troughton Island earlier today, where a peak gust of 185 km/h was measured as
the system went directly over the island. An eye has been evident on IR, VIS
and microwave imagery during the day. DT peaked at 6.0 but other images produced
a DT of 5.0-5.5. While DT may suggest 5.5 based on surround Black [no eye
adjustment LG/W], the FT is set at 5.0 in agreement with the PAT. ADT and AMSU
estimates are lower, probably owing to the small little on the weak side having
failed to identify the eye signature.

Laurence has intensified under favourable upper level outflow and low shear but
despite being in close proximity to land. Intensity is maintained at 85 knot
mean winds for next 18 hours as it tracks parallel to the coast, but intensity
is heavily dependent upon the influence of land. Most models suggest landfall is
the most likely scenario by about +24 hours and weakening is then likely as a
more southerly track ensues.

A more westerly track is possible beyond +48 hours and potentially the system
may move offshore and redevelop in the longer term.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 15/1900 UTC by Perth TCWC.

HURAKAN · **Posted:** Tue Dec 15, 2009 12:13 pm

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 36
Issued at 12:05 am WST on Tuesday, 15 December 2009
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Mitchell Plateau to Beagle
Bay, including Derby.

A Cyclone WATCH is current for adjacent areas to the south.

The Cyclone WARNING between Kalumburu and Mitchell Plateau has been CANCELLED.

At 11:00 pm WST Severe Tropical Cyclone Laurence, Category 4 was estimated to be
80 kilometres north northeast of Kuri Bay and
185 kilometres northeast of Cockatoo Island and
moving southwest at 11 kilometres per hour.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Laurence is a small but intense tropical cyclone having
VERY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 230 kilometres per hour close to the
cyclone centre. As Laurence tracks to the southwest near the Kimberley coast
VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds may develop at Kuri Bay early Wednesday morning.

GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour should extend further southwest
along the coast, reaching Cockatoo and Koolan Islands during Wednesday and
should the centre pass close by VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds are possible during the
afternoon and evening. GALES may extend to Derby and Beagle Bay overnight
Wednesday night.

HEAVY RAIN is expected to continue over the north Kimberley region, extending
into the western Kimberley on Wednesday. Daily rainfall totals in excess of
100mm are possible near the coast with totals decreasing further inland.

FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:
RED ALERT: People in or near Kuri Bay need to go to shelter immediately.
YELLOW ALERT: People at or near Mitchell Plateau should be taking action.
BLUE ALERT: People in or near the communities of Koolan Island and Cockatoo
Island
should start taking precautions.
ALL CLEAR: People in Kalumburu are advised that wind danger has passed but you
need to take care to avoid any danger caused by the heavy rain.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Laurence at 11:00 pm WST:
.Centre located near...... 14.8 degrees South 124.7 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 30 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the southwest at 11 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 230 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 4
.Central pressure......... 954 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 3:00 am WST Wednesday 16 December.Cyclone
advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone

HURAKAN · **Posted:** Tue Dec 15, 2009 12:14 pm

ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 15 DEC 2009 Time : 153000 UTC
Lat : 14:58:13 S Lon : 124:39:24 E

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.3 / 949.0mb/ 97.2kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.2 4.5 4.5

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.8mb

Center Temp : -68.2C Cloud Region Temp : -78.2C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

Sanibel · **Posted:** Tue Dec 15, 2009 1:05 pm

Australia is cranking up. This would be our June down there.

TIMOR SEA : TROPICAL CYCLONE LAURENCE (06S)

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