WPAC: Tropical Depression 01W

[Crostorm]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.0N 113.2E
IS NOW NEAR 7.5N 112.9E, APPROXIMATELY 415 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
HO CHI MINH, VIETNAM. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATED INTO A FULLY EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THIS IS ALSO EVIDENT ON A 181149Z SSMIS
MICROWAVE IMAGE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS SOUTH
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS ORIENTED WEST-EAST AT 20N WITH MODERATE
TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. IN VIEW OF THE ACCELERATED
CONSOLIDATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.

[Cookie]

now a tropical depression

[cycloneye]

WTPN31 PGTW 182100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (ONE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z --- NEAR 8.2N 110.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 8.2N 110.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 9.3N 108.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 10.5N 105.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 11.9N 103.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
182100Z POSITION NEAR 8.5N 110.0E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 01W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280 NM SOUTHEAST
OF HO CHI MINH, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 20 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS TD 01W HAS RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, WITH
A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AS DEPICTED ON A
181341Z ASCAT PASS. THE ASCAT PASS INDICATED WINDS BETWEEN 25 AND 30
KNOTS NEAR THE CENTER, WITH AMSU-B CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING A
DEVELOPING WARM CORE IN THE MID-LEVEL. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
TD 01W IS EQUATORWARD OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AXIS, WHICH IS
CREATING STRONG POLEWARD DIVERGENCE AROUND THE STR SUPPORTING THE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS CURRENTLY AT LOW TO
MODERATE LEVELS, AND IS NOT HINDERING DEVELOPMENT. A LOW- TO MID-
LEVEL STR IS THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE, AND WILL KEEP TD 01W
ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK INTO SOUTHERN VIETNAM WITHIN THE NEXT
12 TO 24 HOURS. TD 01W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
EXTENT OF THE MID-LEVEL STR INTO CENTRAL THAILAND AND IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY TAU 36. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE LLCC WILL
NOT HAVE AMPLE TIME TO INTENSIFY BY LANDFALL; WITH INTENSITY REACHING
WEAK TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THE FORECAST TRACK
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE MODEL
GUIDANCE, HOWEVER TRACK SPEEDS HAVE BEEN INCREASED ABOVE THE CON-
SENSUS TRACK SPEEDS TO REFLECT THE CURRENT SPEED OF TD 01W. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
190300Z, 190900Z, 191500Z AND 192100Z.//

[cycloneye]

WTPN31 PGTW 190300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (ONE) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190000Z --- NEAR 8.4N 110.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 8.4N 110.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 9.5N 107.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 10.8N 105.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 12.3N 103.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
190300Z POSITION NEAR 8.7N 109.5E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 01W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM SOUTHEAST
OF HO CHI MINH, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z
IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190900Z, 191500Z, 192100Z AND 200300Z.//
NNNN

http://www.usno.navy.mil/JTWC

[P.K.]

Yes this has been a TD since at least this time yesterday. As of 12Z:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 09N 109E WNW 10 KT.

[atomic7732]

Weakening
WTPN31 PGTW 192100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (ONE) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191800Z --- NEAR 9.4N 108.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 9.4N 108.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 10.8N 106.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 12.6N 104.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
192100Z POSITION NEAR 9.8N 107.8E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 01W (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 125 NM
SOUTHEAST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE WELL ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER IS QUICKLY APPROACHING THE COAST OF VIETNAM. INTENSITY IS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE AS THE LLCC MOVES OVER LAND. CONVECTION HAS
BEEN DISLOCATED TO THE WEST AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES OVER
THE AREA. THE LLCC IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK
OVER VIETNAM INTO CAMBODIA. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM
BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 8 FEET.//
NNNN

usno.navy.mil/JTWC

[oaba09]

1st 2010 depression in the WPAC