WTPS32 PGTW 120300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (RENE) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (RENE) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120000Z --- NEAR 12.8S 166.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.8S 166.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 13.5S 167.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 14.6S 168.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 15.6S 169.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 16.8S 170.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 19.0S 173.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 21.2S 177.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 23.5S 179.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
120300Z POSITION NEAR 13.0S 166.6W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (RENE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
CONTINUED CONVECTIVE BANDING AROUND A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) AND A 111748Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THE MAJORITY OF THE
DEEP CONVECTION IS WRAPPING AROUND THE LLCC FROM THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST. CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 55 KTS
FROM PGTW AND ABRF. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION
AS A LARGE AREA OF CENTRAL CONVECTION IS OBSCURING THE LLCC.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE WITH A POINT SOURCE ALOFT
SUPPORTING RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC 15P
IS CURRENTLY IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AS IT CONTINUES TO
TRANSITION FROM THE NEAR EQUATORIAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS, TC 15P IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. DUE TO AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE POLEWARD OUTFLOW, THE
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72, IT
APPEARS THAT TC RENE WILL REMAIN ON THE EQUATORWARD SIDE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AS THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE INDICATING THE
STEERING RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD MORE SOUTHWESTWARD. ALSO IN
THE EXTENDED TAUS, TC RENE WILL START TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THE SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES BECOME UNFAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT.
THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
FORECAST AND LIES ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE JTWC CONSENSUS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE AUSTRALIAN SOLUTION WHICH TRACKS THE SYSTEM
ERRONEOUSLY EASTWARD INTO THE STEERING RIDGE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z,
121500Z, 130300Z AND 131500Z.//
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