WPAC: Ex-Tropical Depression (99W)

[KWT]

ECM develops this region in the Yellow Sea probably into a minimal TS from the looks of things.

[StormingB81]

Looks like we have 2 storms with this system now..crazy how that did that

[StormingB81]

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/tpm/em ... single.gif

Here are the forcasted Models. has it just missing Okinawa to the west.

[supercane]

JMA 18Z analysis:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 23N 130E NNW 15 KT.

Morning vis:


Many microwave passes, but all missed part of the system. If you combine these in your mind, perhaps better organized.



SAB Dvorak classification steady at T1.0:
DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
26/2032 UTC 22.9N 130.3E T1.0/1.0 99W
26/1501 UTC 22.6N 130.3E T1.0/1.5 99W

[supercane]

ABPW10 PGTW 262300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/262300Z-270600ZAUG2010//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 21.6N
134.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 131.4E, APPROXIMATELY 300 NM
SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, JAPAN. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
A 262044Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW CONTINUED FLARING CONVECTION
OVER A SLOWLY ORGANIZING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE
LLCC IS IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, GOOD OUTFLOW, AND LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, THIS SYSTEM
HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP BECAUSE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE EAST IS
MOVING WESTWARD TOWARD THE LLCC CAUSING INCREASED IN THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB.
DUE TO THE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS FAIR.
<snip>

[StormingB81]

Looks like it just going to be a rain maker here. Have some ponding on the roadways already. And a couple of good thunderstorms.

[supercane]

WTPQ20 RJTD 270000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 270000UTC 25.8N 127.8E GOOD
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 280000UTC 31.2N 124.6E 120NM 70%
MOVE NNW 15KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

[StormingB81]

The photo wont come up. Is the storm Above Okinawa? of the cluster SW of Okinawa?

[supercane]

Just south of Naha. Current microwave imagery:


Radar not that impressive:


Latest Kadena AFB ob:
METAR text: RODN 270155Z AUTO 11010G18KT 9999 SCT014 BKN019 BKN024 BKN035 29/27 A2970 RMK AO2 RAB0110E0121 SLP055 P0002 T02900269
Conditions at: RODN (KADENA (USAFB-NA, JP) observed 0155 UTC 27 August 2010
Temperature: 29.0°C (84°F)
Dewpoint: 26.9°C (80°F) [RH = 88%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.70 inches Hg (1005.8 mb)
[Sea-level pressure: 1005.5 mb]
Winds: from the ESE (110 degrees) at 12 MPH (10 knots; 5.2 m/s)
gusting to 21 MPH (18 knots; 9.4 m/s)
Visibility: 6 or more miles (10+ km)
Ceiling: 1900 feet AGL
Clouds: scattered clouds at 1400 feet AGL
broken clouds at 1900 feet AGL
broken clouds at 2400 feet AGL
broken clouds at 3500 feet AGL
Weather: automated observation with no human augmentation;

[StormingB81]

I see the rain bands just starting to enter the radar area...probably have a few my hours before we realy start feeling the effects. I see they call for winds from 40mph-57 mph gusting. not to bad. Who knows if that Sheer didnt get ahold of it and the Upper low to the east.

[StormingB81]

http://www.jma.go.jp/en/radnowc/index.html?areaCode=217

Here is the Radar for Okinawa....You can see the rain in the lower right moving on up. Lets hope it doesn't get to bad here before I get home....lol

[Typhoon Hunter]

The ones I personally uses when I'm intercepting a typhoon are JMA, CWB, HKO and JTWC in that order of preference.

If I may ask why do you rank the centers in this order? I'll admit I like JMA's interim updates of storm position between advisory times.

It's mainly due to the fact most of the typhoons I cover are either in Taiwan, Japan or near Hong Kong. All those agencies have good websites and I can easily blend all of their forecasts together to try and get into the best place. Sadly PAGASA in the Philippines have website issues when a typhoon is nearing (I guess due to increased traffic.)

JTWC tracks often shift left and right faster than a windscreen wiper however I do look at their forecasts and enjoy reading their prognostic reasonings.

Back on topic, looks like this TD will be racing against the SCS TD to get the next name on the list. The next names are Lionrock (a mountain in Hong Kong which I can actually see out of my window right now) and Kompasu (Japanese for compass which made direct hit on Hong Kong a few years ago.)

[StormingB81]

Well that X wil leb comming straight over me according to the path so I guess we can expect 40mph winds with gust near 60 mph if it stays the same

[Typhoon Hunter]

Well that X wil leb comming straight over me according to the path so I guess we can expect 40mph winds with gust near 60 mph if it stays the same

The cross is the current location so you can expect winds of 30kts gusting to 45kts. Winds at Kadena are only a modest 15mph from the ESE at the moment.

[StormingB81]

Yes, I think later this afternoon it will become fun

[StormingB81]

Its nice and sunny out now. Could that mean a little stregthening of the storm?

[supercane]

WTPQ20 RJTD 270300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 270300UTC 26.0N 127.4E GOOD
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 280300UTC 31.4N 124.3E 120NM 70%
MOVE NNW 15KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

[StormingB81]

Watch this thing go right around Okinawa....I wouldn't doubt it...lol For the last couple of years thats all these storms have done is miss here.

[supercane]

It is virtually passing over you, StormingB81. This system is poorly organized, which is why none of the other centers are declaring it a depression. ASCAT, although missing the center to the east, shows a very broad area of low pressure:

Most of the weather is located to the north and east of the center:

Development of this system will be very slow, as the JMA advisory above indicated. In short, what you're seeing now is basically it: scattered showers as the system passes by.

[StormingB81]

It is blue skies and sunny right now. However I Don't know if it is part of the storm but there is a big thing of rain moving this way.