WPAC: Ex-Tropical Storm LIONROCK (1006/07W)

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Re:

#61 Postby Typhoon Hunter » Sat Aug 28, 2010 12:23 pm

KWT wrote:Yeah and importantly the system is right under the convection now which suggests it probably will strengthen decently.


Yes it's really looking quite decent now compared to 12 hours ago, looks like the effects of shear have worn off. I fully expect this to be upgraded to TS Lionrock at 18Z by JMA.

It has also shifted quite a bit to the W over the last 12 hours so we're certainly keeping a close eye on it here in Hong Kong!
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#62 Postby KWT » Sat Aug 28, 2010 12:25 pm

Lionrock is the next name?!

Wow that name really deserves a powerful cat-4/5 really not a TS/minimal TY!

Still its getting better organised for sure, probably will upgrade shortly.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression (07W)

#63 Postby P.K. » Sat Aug 28, 2010 1:04 pm

JMA T2.5 at 18Z meaning this will be named in about 40min.
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#64 Postby senorpepr » Sat Aug 28, 2010 2:16 pm

WTJP22 RJTD 281800
WARNING 281800.
WARNING VALID 291800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1006 LIONROCK (1006) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION
1000 HPA
AT 19.4N 116.3E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING NORTH 08 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 291800UTC AT 21.1N 116.5E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 301800UTC AT 21.7N 117.0E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 311800UTC AT 22.5N 117.3E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=
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#65 Postby supercane » Sat Aug 28, 2010 2:42 pm

WTPQ21 RJTD 281800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1006 LIONROCK (1006) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 281800UTC 19.4N 116.3E FAIR
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 100NM
FORECAST
24HF 291800UTC 21.1N 116.5E 85NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 301800UTC 21.7N 117.0E 160NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 311800UTC 22.5N 117.3E 220NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =

Image
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#66 Postby supercane » Sat Aug 28, 2010 3:21 pm

WTSS20 VHHH 281945
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
AT 281800 UTC, THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION LIONROCK (1006) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90
NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE NINE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (19.2 N)
ONE ONE SIX POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (116.3 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 120 NAUTICAL MILES.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 291800 UTC
TWO ONE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (21.0 N)
ONE ONE SIX POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (116.2 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 301800 UTC
TWO ONE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (21.6 N)
ONE ONE SIX POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (116.1 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 311800 UTC
TWO TWO POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (22.3 N)
ONE ONE SIX POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (116.1 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS.
Image
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#67 Postby supercane » Sat Aug 28, 2010 3:42 pm

WTPN31 PGTW 282100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 07W (LIONROCK) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281800Z --- NEAR 19.3N 116.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 19.3N 116.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 20.3N 116.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 21.2N 115.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 22.0N 115.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 22.7N 115.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 23.7N 114.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 24.2N 112.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
282100Z POSITION NEAR 19.6N 116.2E.
TROPICAL STORM 07W (LIONROCK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 215 NM SOUTHEAST
OF HONG KONG HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATING
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT
VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR HAS DECREASED TO 5-10 KNOTS WITH IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW
ENHANCED BY A TROUGH OVER SOUTHEAST CHINA. THE CURRENT POSITION IS
BASED ON A 281346Z ASCAT IMAGE AND RECENT FIXES WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS FROM
PGTW, KNES AND RJTD. TS 07W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
TO NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 WHEN IT WILL MAKE LANDFALL. THEN THE
SYSTEM SHOULD TURN WESTWARD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS (NOGAPS,
UKMO,
GFDN, JGSM, ECMEF, WBAR AND GFS) DIVERGE AFTER TAU 24. THIS FORECAST
FAVORS THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE AIDS ENVELOPE. MODEL ANALYSIS OF
ECMWF AND GFS, WHICH SHOW A SHARP NORTHEASTWARD TURN TOWARD TAIWAN,
INDICATE INTERACTION WITH A LOW DEVELOPING EAST OF TAIWAN. THIS
INTERACTION APPEARS TO BE EXCESSIVE DUE TO POOR INITIALIZATION OF
TS 07W WHICH IS DEPICTED TOO WEAK AND ROUGHLY EQUIVALENT IN STRENGTH
TO THE TAIWAN LOW. THE UKMO MODEL IS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
ENVELOPE AND DEPICTS A SHARPER TURN WESTWARD SOUTH OF HONG KONG.
OVERALL, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK DUE TO THE LARGE
MODEL SPREAD WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE WESTWARD TURN
AS WELL AS POSSIBLE (BUT UNLIKELY) INTERACTION WITH THE TAIWAN LOW.
THIS FORECAST IS POSITIONED WEST OF CONSENSUS. TS 07W IS FORECAST
TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 55-60 KNOTS AND SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER LAND
BY TAU 96. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281800Z IS 13 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 290300Z, 290900Z, 291500Z AND 292100Z.//
NNNN
Image
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#68 Postby supercane » Sat Aug 28, 2010 5:04 pm

WTPQ21 RJTD 282100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1006 LIONROCK (1006)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 282100UTC 19.5N 116.2E FAIR
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 100NM
FORECAST
24HF 292100UTC 21.1N 116.7E 85NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 301800UTC 21.7N 117.0E 160NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 311800UTC 22.5N 117.3E 220NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =
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#69 Postby Chacor » Sat Aug 28, 2010 7:51 pm

WTPQ21 RJTD 290000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1006 LIONROCK (1006)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 290000UTC 19.6N 115.9E FAIR
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 100NM
FORECAST
24HF 300000UTC 20.6N 116.7E 85NM 70%
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 310000UTC 21.2N 117.1E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 010000UTC 22.5N 117.4E 220NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =
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#70 Postby Chacor » Sat Aug 28, 2010 9:10 pm

Lionrock appears to be feeling easterly shear, partially exposed centre.

Image
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Storm LIONROCK (1006/07W)

#71 Postby Typhoon10 » Sat Aug 28, 2010 9:53 pm

T1 signal now raised in HK
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#72 Postby StormingB81 » Sat Aug 28, 2010 9:55 pm

How bad they expecting it for you guys Typhoon10?
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#73 Postby supercane » Sat Aug 28, 2010 10:00 pm

WTPN31 PGTW 290300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 07W (LIONROCK) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290000Z --- NEAR 19.6N 116.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 19.6N 116.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 20.5N 116.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 21.4N 116.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 22.1N 115.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 22.8N 115.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 23.3N 114.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
290300Z POSITION NEAR 19.8N 116.5E.
TROPICAL STORM 07W (LIONROCK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 205 NM
SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 290000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290900Z, 291500Z,
292100Z AND 300300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 08W (EIGHT)
WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
Image
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Re:

#74 Postby Typhoon10 » Sat Aug 28, 2010 10:03 pm

StormingB81 wrote:How bad they expecting it for you guys Typhoon10?


HKO says upto Galeforce 6 which is sustained winds of 50kmh. It depends the track it takes over the next 72 to 96 hrs, predicting it will go about 200km to west of us, so just a little wind and lot of rain.

But Hunter is more the expert here in HK, so might be better placed to advise
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#75 Postby supercane » Sat Aug 28, 2010 10:15 pm

WTSS20 VHHH 290145
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
TROPICAL DEPRESSION LIONROCK (1006) HAS INTENSIFIED INTO A
TROPICAL STORM WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 HECTOPASCALS. AT
290000 UTC, IT WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE
NINE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (19.6 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT ONE
DEGREES EAST (116.1 E) AND IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND
MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 120 NAUTICAL MILES.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 300000 UTC
TWO ONE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (21.4 N)
ONE ONE FIVE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (115.9 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 310000 UTC
TWO TWO POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (22.1 N)
ONE ONE SIX POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (116.6 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 010000 UTC
TWO TWO POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (22.7 N)
ONE ONE FIVE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (115.9 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS.

Image

Taiwan:
Image

China:

WTPQ20 BABJ 290200
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TS LIONROCK 1006 (1006) INITIAL TIME 290200 UTC
00HR 19.8N 116.0E 998HPA 20M/S
30KTS 200KM
P12HR N 10KM/H=

Korea:
WTKO20 RKSL 290000
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 2
NAME TS 1006 LIONROCK
ANALYSIS
POSITION 290000UTC 19.6N 115.9E
MOVEMENT WNW 4KT
PRES/VMAX 1000HPA 35KT
FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 300000UTC 21.0N 116.7E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 995HPA 39KT
48HR
POSITION 310000UTC 22.1N 117.3E WITHIN 135NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
72HR
POSITION 010000UTC 23.3N 117.3E WITHIN 215NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.
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#76 Postby supercane » Sat Aug 28, 2010 10:16 pm

WDPN31 PGTW 290300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 07W WARNING NR 08//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (LIONROCK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
205 NM SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED, PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) SHEARED JUST EAST OF A LARGE CLUSTER OF DEEP
CONVECTION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK, NORTHEASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. A 282200Z SSMIS 37V IMAGE DEPICTS WEAK
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND A
TIGHTLY-WRAPPED EXPOSED LLCC. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE CURRENT POSITION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS FROM PGTW, RJTD AND KNES. TS 07W IS
CURRENTLY POSITIONED 575 NM SOUTHWEST OF A DEVELOPING TROPICAL
LOW LOCATED EAST OF TAIWAN.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE IN FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASON.
B. TS 07W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWARD TO
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36 BUT IS EXPECTED TO TURN
WESTWARD, AFTER MAKING LANDFALL NEAR TAU 48, UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE POSITIONED OVER SOUTHEAST CHINA. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS (NOGAPS, UKMO, GFDN, JGSM, ECMWF, WBAR AND GFS) DIVERGE
AFTER TAU 12 WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE AIDS TRACKING THE SYSTEM
NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD. THE JGSM AND WBAR AIDS SHOW A
SHARP NORTHEASTWARD TURN TOWARD TAIWAN, INDICATING INTERACTION
WITH THE LOW DEVELOPING EAST OF TAIWAN. THIS INTERACTION APPEARS
TO BE EXCESSIVE DUE TO POOR INITIALIZATION OF TS 07W WHICH IS
DEPICTED TOO WEAK AND ROUGHLY EQUIVALENT IN STRENGTH TO THE
TAIWAN LOW. ADDITIONALLY, THE SEPARATION DISTANCE OF 575 NM
ALONG WITH THE RELATIVELY SMALL SYSTEM SIZES DOES NOT FAVOR
SIGNIFICANT INTERACTION. OVERALL, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE
IN THE TRACK DUE TO THE LARGE MODEL SPREAD WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TIMING OF THE WESTWARD TURN AS WELL AS POSSIBLE (BUT UNLIKELY)
INTERACTION WITH THE TAIWAN LOW. THIS FORECAST IS POSITIONED
WEST OF CONSENSUS. TS 07W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK
OF 50-55 KNOTS AND SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY TAU 72.//
NNNN
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#77 Postby supercane » Sat Aug 28, 2010 10:50 pm

WTPQ21 RJTD 290300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1006 LIONROCK (1006)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 290300UTC 19.9N 115.9E FAIR
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 100NM
FORECAST
24HF 300300UTC 20.8N 116.7E 85NM 70%
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 310000UTC 21.2N 117.1E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 010000UTC 22.5N 117.4E 220NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =
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#78 Postby supercane » Sat Aug 28, 2010 11:30 pm

BTW, interesting graphic from Taiwan's CWB showing 72hr probability of being in the center.
Image
This is mostly due to slow movement, but as JTWC notes is also a result of low forecast confidence secondary to model divergence.
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supercane
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#79 Postby supercane » Sat Aug 28, 2010 11:42 pm

UW-CIMSS analysis consistent with vis imagery impression of NE shear:
Image
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#80 Postby supercane » Sun Aug 29, 2010 12:29 am

Latest ASCAT pass through Lionrock (cool name!):
Image
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