ATL: LISA - Models

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Ptarmigan
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#21 Postby Ptarmigan » Sun Sep 19, 2010 8:48 pm

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SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO
FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHWESTWARD.  THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.


I think 92L could be Tropical Depression 14 by tomorrow and Lisa.

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Re: ATL : INVEST 94L : MODELS

#22 Postby TYNI » Sun Sep 19, 2010 8:54 pm

OURAGAN wrote:Another fish.



Who cares, we track, we learn, no one gets hurt. Boost the ACE... possibly on our way to the 12th named storm...
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#23 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Sep 20, 2010 7:12 am

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Latest GDFL
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#24 Postby KWT » Mon Sep 20, 2010 7:45 am

Wow the 12z GFDL goes due north the whole way through, won't be a very strong system if it takes that sort of track!
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#25 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Sep 20, 2010 8:17 am

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258
WHXX01 KWBC 201315
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1315 UTC MON SEP 20 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942010) 20100920 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100920  1200   100921  0000   100921  1200   100922  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    16.4N  32.3W   17.1N  33.1W   17.3N  33.7W   17.2N  34.2W
BAMD    16.4N  32.3W   17.1N  32.8W   17.4N  33.3W   17.5N  33.8W
BAMM    16.4N  32.3W   17.0N  33.0W   17.2N  33.6W   17.2N  34.1W
LBAR    16.4N  32.3W   17.2N  32.9W   18.1N  33.5W   19.1N  34.1W
SHIP        25KTS          29KTS          35KTS          41KTS
DSHP        25KTS          29KTS          35KTS          41KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100922  1200   100923  1200   100924  1200   100925  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    17.1N  34.8W   17.1N  36.5W   17.7N  38.2W   18.3N  39.4W
BAMD    17.3N  34.6W   17.3N  37.0W   17.7N  39.1W   18.1N  39.7W
BAMM    17.0N  34.8W   16.9N  37.0W   17.2N  39.1W   17.6N  40.3W
LBAR    20.4N  34.6W   23.3N  36.4W   26.4N  37.3W   29.5N  33.9W
SHIP        50KTS          59KTS          60KTS          56KTS
DSHP        50KTS          59KTS          60KTS          56KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  16.4N LONCUR =  32.3W DIRCUR = 305DEG SPDCUR =   7KT
LATM12 =  15.6N LONM12 =  31.6W DIRM12 = 308DEG SPDM12 =   5KT
LATM24 =  15.1N LONM24 =  30.4W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   80NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  180NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$
NNNN
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#26 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Sep 20, 2010 8:18 am

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Track
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#27 Postby StormClouds63 » Mon Sep 20, 2010 12:44 pm

The CV trend remains set in stone for 2010 ... the year of the re-curve. Future Lisa looks to continue the pattern. It is looking a lot like 1950, 1969, and 1995. Other than Earl, no real threats to the U.S. Bermuda has had to take on a weakened, but still formidable, Igor.
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#28 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Sep 20, 2010 1:30 pm

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GFDL
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#29 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Sep 20, 2010 1:55 pm

Code: Select all

975
WHXX01 KWBC 201849
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1849 UTC MON SEP 20 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942010) 20100920 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100920  1800   100921  0600   100921  1800   100922  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    16.3N  32.0W   17.2N  32.4W   17.7N  32.7W   17.8N  33.2W
BAMD    16.3N  32.0W   17.0N  32.3W   17.5N  32.6W   17.7N  33.0W
BAMM    16.3N  32.0W   17.1N  32.4W   17.7N  32.6W   17.7N  32.9W
LBAR    16.3N  32.0W   16.8N  32.2W   17.7N  32.7W   19.0N  33.2W
SHIP        25KTS          29KTS          36KTS          42KTS
DSHP        25KTS          29KTS          36KTS          42KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100922  1800   100923  1800   100924  1800   100925  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    18.0N  33.7W   18.9N  35.5W   20.0N  37.3W   20.9N  39.0W
BAMD    17.8N  33.8W   18.5N  35.8W   19.4N  37.3W   20.1N  37.3W
BAMM    17.9N  33.6W   18.6N  35.6W   19.5N  37.3W   20.4N  38.1W
LBAR    20.6N  33.8W   24.1N  35.3W   27.7N  34.6W   30.7N  29.7W
SHIP        50KTS          62KTS          63KTS          59KTS
DSHP        50KTS          62KTS          63KTS          59KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  16.3N LONCUR =  32.0W DIRCUR = 330DEG SPDCUR =   3KT
LATM12 =  15.9N LONM12 =  31.8W DIRM12 = 330DEG SPDM12 =   3KT
LATM24 =  15.3N LONM24 =  31.0W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   80NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  180NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$
NNNN
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#30 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Sep 20, 2010 1:57 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#31 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 20, 2010 7:39 pm

WHXX01 KWBC 210035
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0035 UTC TUE SEP 21 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE FOURTEEN (AL142010) 20100921 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100921 0000 100921 1200 100922 0000 100922 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.0N 31.9W 18.1N 32.0W 18.6N 32.0W 18.9N 32.3W
BAMD 17.0N 31.9W 17.7N 32.0W 18.3N 31.9W 18.5N 32.0W
BAMM 17.0N 31.9W 18.0N 32.0W 18.6N 31.9W 18.8N 32.1W
LBAR 17.0N 31.9W 18.0N 31.7W 19.3N 31.8W 20.8N 31.8W
SHIP 30KTS 36KTS 41KTS 46KTS
DSHP 30KTS 36KTS 41KTS 46KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100923 0000 100924 0000 100925 0000 100926 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.0N 32.7W 19.5N 34.4W 20.3N 36.1W 21.1N 38.0W
BAMD 18.6N 32.3W 18.9N 33.9W 19.7N 34.8W 21.2N 33.7W
BAMM 18.8N 32.5W 19.0N 34.6W 19.6N 36.2W 20.3N 37.0W
LBAR 22.6N 31.7W 26.6N 32.3W 30.2N 30.9W 32.0N 24.5W
SHIP 49KTS 56KTS 53KTS 45KTS
DSHP 49KTS 56KTS 53KTS 45KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.0N LONCUR = 31.9W DIRCUR = 0DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 16.1N LONM12 = 31.9W DIRM12 = 334DEG SPDM12 = 2KT
LATM24 = 15.6N LONM24 = 31.6W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 220NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#32 Postby Macrocane » Mon Sep 20, 2010 7:54 pm

It was about time, the convection has persisted and is strong the circulation is very well organized, banding features are developing they can't delay teh advisories anymore with all that organization I wouldn't be surprised if it is Lisa by the time of the advisory.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#33 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 20, 2010 7:59 pm

It looks like it will not track towards the Caribbean nor Bermuda, so it will be a fish, unless it moves thru the Azores.

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#34 Postby Frank2 » Tue Sep 21, 2010 6:33 am

Good morning,

A spread like that is proof that the easterlies have already broken down, that's for sure - a sure sign that the CV season is nearing an end...

Frank
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Re: ATL: LISA - Models

#35 Postby GCANE » Tue Sep 21, 2010 7:24 am

NCEP ensembles show a slight curve to the NE due to the building Bermuda High.

GFS has Lisa interacting with an sharp UL trough in 60 hrs.

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/cor ... ecast.html

It appears height drops will lower Lisa's PV in 60 hrs and weaken her.

After that, GFS has Lisa moving west where she will encounter a forecasted TUTT in about 140 hrs.

May not be much left after that - all according to GFS.

Waiting to see this morning's Euro ensembles - they may tell another story.

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Re: ATL: LISA - Models

#36 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 21, 2010 7:59 am

12z Tropical Models Suite

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 211251
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1251 UTC TUE SEP 21 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE LISA (AL142010) 20100921 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100921  1200   100922  0000   100922  1200   100923  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    17.9N  31.7W   18.6N  31.7W   19.0N  31.8W   19.0N  31.8W
BAMD    17.9N  31.7W   18.7N  31.1W   18.7N  30.6W   18.6N  30.2W
BAMM    17.9N  31.7W   18.7N  31.3W   18.9N  31.1W   18.5N  31.0W
LBAR    17.9N  31.7W   18.8N  31.2W   20.5N  30.9W   22.1N  30.6W
SHIP        40KTS          48KTS          54KTS          56KTS
DSHP        40KTS          48KTS          54KTS          56KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100923  1200   100924  1200   100925  1200   100926  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    19.0N  32.3W   19.9N  33.3W   21.4N  34.3W   23.0N  36.5W
BAMD    18.4N  30.2W   19.8N  30.4W   22.8N  27.7W   25.2N  21.8W
BAMM    18.3N  31.6W   19.0N  32.7W   20.8N  32.4W   23.2N  32.1W
LBAR    24.0N  30.6W   28.0N  30.0W   31.1N  24.6W   32.7N  13.6W
SHIP        57KTS          58KTS          47KTS          34KTS
DSHP        57KTS          58KTS          47KTS          34KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  17.9N LONCUR =  31.7W DIRCUR =  15DEG SPDCUR =   4KT
LATM12 =  17.0N LONM12 =  31.9W DIRM12 =   9DEG SPDM12 =   6KT
LATM24 =  16.1N LONM24 =  31.9W
WNDCUR =   40KT RMAXWD =   35NM WNDM12 =   30KT
CENPRS = 1002MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  220NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =   35NM RD34SE =   35NM RD34SW =   25NM RD34NW =  25NM


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Re: ATL: LISA - Models

#37 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 21, 2010 2:14 pm

18z Tropical Models Suite

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 211902
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1902 UTC TUE SEP 21 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE LISA (AL142010) 20100921 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100921  1800   100922  0600   100922  1800   100923  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    18.2N  31.6W   18.8N  31.8W   19.1N  32.1W   19.0N  32.8W
BAMD    18.2N  31.6W   18.6N  31.6W   18.4N  31.7W   17.9N  32.1W
BAMM    18.2N  31.6W   18.7N  31.7W   18.6N  32.0W   18.2N  32.8W
LBAR    18.2N  31.6W   18.9N  31.3W   20.2N  31.3W   21.6N  31.6W
SHIP        40KTS          46KTS          50KTS          50KTS
DSHP        40KTS          46KTS          50KTS          50KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100923  1800   100924  1800   100925  1800   100926  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    19.3N  33.8W   20.2N  35.7W   21.2N  37.8W   22.1N  41.3W
BAMD    17.8N  33.0W   18.4N  34.2W   19.7N  34.0W   22.4N  32.0W
BAMM    18.2N  34.0W   18.7N  35.6W   19.3N  36.7W   20.6N  38.1W
LBAR    23.2N  32.1W   27.5N  32.2W   30.8N  27.8W   32.3N  18.4W
SHIP        52KTS          50KTS          40KTS          29KTS
DSHP        52KTS          50KTS          40KTS          29KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  18.2N LONCUR =  31.6W DIRCUR =  15DEG SPDCUR =   3KT
LATM12 =  17.5N LONM12 =  31.8W DIRM12 =  12DEG SPDM12 =   5KT
LATM24 =  16.3N LONM24 =  32.0W
WNDCUR =   40KT RMAXWD =   30NM WNDM12 =   35KT
CENPRS = 1002MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  220NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =   35NM RD34SE =   35NM RD34SW =   35NM RD34NW =  35NM
 

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Re: ATL: LISA - Models

#38 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Sep 24, 2010 8:20 am

Code: Select all

349
WHXX01 KWBC 241254
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1254 UTC FRI SEP 24 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE LISA (AL142010) 20100924 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100924  1200   100925  0000   100925  1200   100926  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    18.6N  27.8W   20.3N  28.0W   22.2N  28.4W   24.0N  28.3W
BAMD    18.6N  27.8W   20.2N  27.5W   22.2N  26.6W   24.7N  24.9W
BAMM    18.6N  27.8W   20.2N  27.7W   22.2N  27.4W   24.6N  26.3W
LBAR    18.6N  27.8W   19.9N  27.5W   21.7N  27.4W   23.7N  27.3W
SHIP        40KTS          44KTS          46KTS          45KTS
DSHP        40KTS          44KTS          46KTS          45KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100926  1200   100927  1200   100928  1200   100929  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    25.5N  28.3W   27.9N  28.1W   29.5N  26.7W   29.0N  25.9W
BAMD    27.2N  22.2W   29.1N  13.3W   29.9N   2.8W   32.5N   8.5E
BAMM    26.7N  24.8W   29.2N  19.9W   28.0N  14.1W   27.8N   9.6W
LBAR    25.8N  26.3W   28.9N  22.5W   29.6N  15.0W   29.9N   7.0W
SHIP        40KTS          29KTS          25KTS          22KTS
DSHP        40KTS          29KTS          25KTS          22KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  18.6N LONCUR =  27.8W DIRCUR =  10DEG SPDCUR =   4KT
LATM12 =  17.9N LONM12 =  28.1W DIRM12 =  34DEG SPDM12 =   4KT
LATM24 =  17.4N LONM24 =  28.8W
WNDCUR =   40KT RMAXWD =   25NM WNDM12 =   35KT
CENPRS = 1002MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  175NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =   35NM RD34SE =   35NM RD34SW =   25NM RD34NW =  35NM
 
$$
NNNN

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CrazyC83
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#39 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Sep 24, 2010 8:22 pm

Models EPIC FAIL tonight...Lisa had other ideas. Much like Julia.

I wonder if the Canary Islands could get threatened?
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