ATL: OTTO - Models
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- AJC3
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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L - Models
It's important to note that while the main cutoff low very (and I mean very) slowly lifts out of the eastern U.S. from days 3-5, the mid to upper level flow over the southeastern U.S. remains westerly for the foreseeable future. The threat for a system approaching FL from the east or southeast is very low now, from both a climotological standpoint, and more importantly, the synoptic pattern favors the CONUS remaining landfall free through mid October. It's looking more and more like a climo-favored system originating in the western Caribbean and moving northeast toward the Greater Antilles or FL would be about the only threat for a CONUS landfall for the remainder of the season, unless some sort of an unusual early fall-season high amplitude block forms.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L - Models
i been told few people who know models that nam cannot be trust for tropical system i see few here look at it for tropical system it have soso recond of doing good with tropical system i go with other models to see what going happen with tropical system not nam
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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L - Models
i agree with you this time a year system that area dont affect usa i not say could happen but unlikely to happen because weather setup in usa now in fall if was aug i be little more worryAJC3 wrote:It's important to note that while the main cutoff low very (and I mean very) slowly lifts out of the eastern U.S. from days 3-5, the mid to upper level flow over the southeastern U.S. remains westerly for the foreseeable future. The threat for a system approaching FL from the east or southeast is very low now, from both a climotological standpoint, and more importantly, the synoptic pattern favors the CONUS remaining landfall free through mid October. It's looking more and more like a climo-favored system originating in the western Caribbean and moving northeast toward the Greater Antilles or FL would be about the only threat for a CONUS landfall for the remainder of the season, unless some sort of an unusual early fall-season high amplitude block forms.
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L - Models
12z Tropical Models Suite
Code: Select all
WHXX01 KWBC 041324
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1324 UTC MON OCT 4 2010
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972010) 20101004 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
101004 1200 101005 0000 101005 1200 101006 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.7N 65.4W 18.1N 67.1W 18.5N 68.8W 18.9N 70.0W
BAMD 17.7N 65.4W 17.8N 66.7W 18.1N 67.9W 18.6N 68.9W
BAMM 17.7N 65.4W 17.8N 67.0W 18.0N 68.4W 18.3N 69.3W
LBAR 17.7N 65.4W 18.2N 67.5W 18.9N 69.3W 19.6N 71.2W
SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 32KTS 40KTS
DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 32KTS 40KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
101006 1200 101007 1200 101008 1200 101009 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.0N 70.9W 19.0N 71.7W 19.9N 72.1W 21.9N 73.5W
BAMD 18.9N 69.7W 19.6N 70.4W 22.0N 69.6W 27.2N 59.3W
BAMM 18.4N 69.7W 19.0N 68.2W 22.3N 63.4W 26.3N 54.5W
LBAR 20.3N 72.8W 21.7N 73.9W 23.6N 72.6W 27.5N 67.4W
SHIP 50KTS 66KTS 74KTS 78KTS
DSHP 37KTS 38KTS 46KTS 50KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.7N LONCUR = 65.4W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 17.6N LONM12 = 62.8W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 17.6N LONM24 = 60.1W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 250NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L - Models
12z ECMWF has it forming just north of Puerto Rico, but moves it NE from there.
48 hours.
96 hours.
48 hours.
96 hours.
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- HURAKAN
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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L - Models
MortisFL wrote:Why is the NAM even posted? Does it ever verify?
Because it's showing, more or less, the same thing the ECMWF is showing
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L - Models
The 12z package of global models has this developing just north of PR/Hispanola and moving NE thru the open Atlantic,in other words,there is a consensus about having Otto.
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L - Models
18z Tropical Models Suite
Code: Select all
WHXX01 KWBC 041940
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1940 UTC MON OCT 4 2010
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972010) 20101004 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
101004 1800 101005 0600 101005 1800 101006 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.7N 65.8W 18.3N 67.4W 18.9N 68.9W 19.3N 69.9W
BAMD 17.7N 65.8W 18.0N 67.1W 18.6N 68.3W 19.0N 69.2W
BAMM 17.7N 65.8W 18.1N 67.3W 18.6N 68.7W 19.0N 69.6W
LBAR 17.7N 65.8W 18.2N 67.5W 18.9N 69.1W 19.8N 70.9W
SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 33KTS 42KTS
DSHP 25KTS 26KTS 27KTS 27KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
101006 1800 101007 1800 101008 1800 101009 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.6N 70.6W 20.2N 70.6W 22.5N 67.5W 27.3N 56.5W
BAMD 19.5N 69.9W 20.3N 70.4W 23.5N 67.8W 29.6N 55.4W
BAMM 19.2N 70.2W 19.9N 70.0W 23.2N 66.2W 28.8N 54.4W
LBAR 20.4N 72.1W 21.8N 72.7W 23.9N 70.8W 27.7N 64.6W
SHIP 53KTS 73KTS 78KTS 79KTS
DSHP 27KTS 33KTS 38KTS 38KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.7N LONCUR = 65.8W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 17.6N LONM12 = 64.1W DIRM12 = 273DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 17.6N LONM24 = 61.4W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 250NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L - Models
cycloneye wrote:The 12z package of global models has this developing just north of PR/Hispanola and moving NE thru the open Atlantic,in other words,there is a consensus about having Otto.
And the consensus is also that Otto will be a big fat pile of nothing. PR is in for a rain event either way, but the models don't show Otto being much worse than that.
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L - Models
00z Tropical Models Suite
Code: Select all
WHXX01 KWBC 050110
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0110 UTC TUE OCT 5 2010
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972010) 20101005 0000 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
101005 0000 101005 1200 101006 0000 101006 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.5N 64.5W 18.7N 66.1W 19.7N 67.5W 20.4N 68.5W
BAMD 17.5N 64.5W 18.3N 65.9W 19.2N 67.1W 19.9N 68.0W
BAMM 17.5N 64.5W 18.4N 66.1W 19.2N 67.4W 19.8N 68.4W
LBAR 17.5N 64.5W 18.1N 65.4W 19.0N 66.4W 19.6N 67.2W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 36KTS 46KTS
DSHP 25KTS 25KTS 34KTS 44KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
101007 0000 101008 0000 101009 0000 101010 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 20.8N 68.9W 22.5N 67.5W 26.6N 62.2W 31.2N 52.0W
BAMD 20.6N 68.6W 22.7N 68.8W 27.7N 63.3W 34.4N 51.0W
BAMM 20.3N 68.9W 22.1N 68.2W 26.6N 62.3W 32.8N 50.8W
LBAR 19.8N 67.4W 21.8N 66.1W 26.0N 61.3W 32.3N 51.4W
SHIP 57KTS 75KTS 78KTS 74KTS
DSHP 56KTS 73KTS 76KTS 72KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.5N LONCUR = 64.5W DIRCUR = 255DEG SPDCUR = 1KT
LATM12 = 17.6N LONM12 = 64.5W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 3KT
LATM24 = 17.6N LONM24 = 62.8W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 250NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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- srainhoutx
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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L - Models
Caution as this disturbance is still affecting the Islands tonight.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L - Models
srainhoutx wrote::uarrow:
Caution as this disturbance is still affecting the Islands tonight.
Even the most bullish models don't do much to it in time to affect the islands. Although the local radars are showing some serious rain
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- Typhoon_Willie
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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L - Models
That serious rain can lead to serious flooding an landslides though.
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