ATL: RICHARD - Advisories

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ATL: RICHARD - Advisories

#1 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Oct 20, 2010 9:32 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010
1100 PM EDT WED OCT 20 2010

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 81.1W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM S OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM NE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 100 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS DEPRESSION.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
NINETEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.1 WEST.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE SOUTH...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST...IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 35 MPH...55
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED
ON THURSDAY...BUT THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM IN
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER JAMAICA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF
15 INCHES IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH
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#2 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Oct 20, 2010 9:40 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010
1100 PM EDT WED OCT 20 2010

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS NOW LOCATED CLOSER TO THE
MAIN MASS OF DEEP CONVECTION THAN IT WAS EARLIER TODAY. THE OVERALL
CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED...RESULTING IN
DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS OF 1.5 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. DEEP
CONVECTION HAS ALSO BEEN ON THE INCREASE DURING THE LAST SEVERAL
HOURS. BASED PRIMARILY ON THE FACT THAT THE CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NOW MORE INVOLVED WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION...THE SYSTEM IS BEING
DESIGNATED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE AT THIS TIME. RECONNAISSANCE DATA
FROM EARLIER TODAY INDICATED AN INTENSITY NEAR 30 KT...AND IT IS
ASSUMED THAT THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH SINCE THE
TIME OF THOSE OBSERVATIONS.

SINCE THE CENTER APPEARS TO HAVE REFORMED DURING THE LAST FEW
HOURS...THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 100/02. THE
CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN A COL REGION AT THE BASE OF A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND TO THE WEST OF
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. GLOBAL MODELS BUILD
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AS THE TROUGH
LIFTS OUT OF THE REGION AFTER ABOUT 36 HOURS. THE MAJORITY OF THE
TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWS A SLOW LOOPING MOTION TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST...
SOUTH...AND THEN SOUTHWEST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AFTER
THAT...A WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED IS INDICATED DUE TO THE BUILDING RIDGE TO THE
NORTH. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...
EXCEPT FOR THE HWRF WHICH TAKES THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL AND THEN TURNS IT NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD FLORIDA. ALTHOUGH
THE LATTER SOLUTION CANNOT BE COMPLETELY DISCOUNTED...THE
OFFICIAL NHC TRACK FORECAST LEANS TOWARDS A CONSENSUS OF THE OTHER
DYNAMICAL MODELS.

UW-CIMSS ANALYSES INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION IS BEING AFFECTED BY
MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES TROUGH. AS THIS FEATURE LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA IN ABOUT 36
HOURS...THE SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES A REDUCTION IN THE SHEAR IN
A DAY OR TWO WHICH SHOULD FAVOR GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OVER THE
WARM WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. LATER IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS COMPLICATED BY UNCERTAINTIES IN
THE FUTURE INTERACTION WITH LAND. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE
STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL LGEM GUIDANCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 21/0300Z 17.5N 81.1W 30 KT
12HR VT 21/1200Z 17.1N 80.7W 30 KT
24HR VT 22/0000Z 16.8N 80.7W 30 KT
36HR VT 22/1200Z 16.4N 81.1W 35 KT
48HR VT 23/0000Z 16.3N 81.7W 40 KT
72HR VT 24/0000Z 16.6N 84.1W 50 KT
96HR VT 25/0000Z 18.0N 87.5W 55 KT
120HR VT 26/0000Z 19.5N 90.0W 30 KT

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH
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Re: ATL : TD 19 Advisories

#3 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 21, 2010 6:07 am

For the record.

000
WTNT44 KNHC 210842
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010
500 AM EDT THU OCT 21 2010

THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS AND THERE HAS BEEN SOME INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION. ALTHOUGH
THE SHEAR SEEMS TO BE RELAXING AS INDICATED BY MOTION OF THE HIGH
CLOUDS...THE CENTER IS STILL LOCATED ON THE WESTERN PORTION OF A
CYCLONICALLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE 2.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE...INDICATING
THAT THE DEPRESSION COULD BE A TROPICAL STORM. HOWEVER...AN AIR
FORCE PLANE WILL BE IN THE AREA IN A FEW HOURS...AND I WOULD RATHER
WAIT FOR THE RECONNAISSANCE DATA TO UPGRADE THE SYSTEM TO A
TROPICAL STORM. HAVING SAID THAT...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE
SHOWING THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NEAR OR OVER
THE DEPRESSION IN A DAY OR SO...AND A TRACK A LITTLE BIT MORE
DISTANT FROM THE HIGH TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AMERICA. THESE CONDITIONS
AND THE PREVAILING WARM OCEAN WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR
INTENSIFICATION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A LITTLE MORE
STRENGTHENING THAN INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT NOT AS
AGGRESSIVE AS THE GFDL AND THE HWRF. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO
BECOME A HURRICANE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AS INDICATED BY
THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS.


THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR 135
DEGREES AT 3 KNOTS...EMBEDDED IN VERY LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS.
LITTLE MOTION IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
THEREAFTER...ALL GLOBAL MODELS LIFT OUT THE CURRENT TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND REPLACE IT WITH A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS NEW
STEERING PATTERN WOULD FORCE THE CYCLONE ON A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST
TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE BIT TO
THE NORTH...AND IS HEAVILY BASED ON THE GFS...THE UK MODELS AND
CONTINUITY. I HAVE LESS CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST BEYOND 72 HOURS
BECAUSE THE GFDL...THE HWRF AND THE ECMWF TURN THE CYCLONE TOWARD
THE NORTH OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE TRACK HAS TO BE ADJUSTED
NORTHWARD LATER ON.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 21/0900Z 17.0N 80.7W 30 KT
12HR VT 21/1800Z 16.8N 80.7W 40 KT
24HR VT 22/0600Z 16.5N 81.0W 45 KT
36HR VT 22/1800Z 16.5N 81.5W 55 KT
48HR VT 23/0600Z 16.5N 82.0W 65 KT
72HR VT 24/0600Z 17.5N 84.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 25/0600Z 19.0N 88.0W 40 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 26/0600Z 21.0N 90.0W 30 KT...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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Re: ATL : RICHARD Advisories

#4 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 21, 2010 9:47 am

WTNT34 KNHC 211443
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RICHARD ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010
1100 AM EDT THU OCT 21 2010

...THE SEVENTEENTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS...EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 80.4W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SSE OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM ENE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 135 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF RICHARD.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RICHARD WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.4 WEST. RICHARD IS
MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE SOUTH...SOUTHWEST...AND WEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS AT A SLOW FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND RICHARD
COULD BECOME A HURRICANE OVER THE WEEKEND.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...
165 KM...MAINLY EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...RICHARD IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER JAMAICA...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE
RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

000
WTNT44 KNHC 211444
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM RICHARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010
1100 AM EDT THU OCT 21 2010

AIRCRAFT DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS SHOWED
PEAK FLIGHT WINDS OF 40 KT...RELIABLE SFMR VALUES OF 37 KT...AND A
MINIMUM PRESSURE OF ABOUT 1006 MB. BASED ON THE ABOVE DATA...THIS
SYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF
35 KT. THE CENTER IS LOCATED JUST TO THE WEST OF INCREASING MASS
OF THUNDERSTORMS...WITH A WEAK LOW-LEVEL SWIRL SEEN FARTHER TO THE
SOUTHWEST IN THE HIGH RESOLUTION VISIBLE IMAGES. OVERALL...THE
CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER...WITH
MANY CURVED BANDS IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.

GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION SEEMS TO BE THE BEST BET IN THE SHORT-TERM.
WHILE SHEAR HAS DECREASED FROM YESTERDAY...THERE IS STILL A FAIR
AMOUNT OF MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR PRESENT TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE CYCLONE. THIS DRY AIR WILL HAVE A DECENT CHANCE OF SLOWING THE
STRENGTHENING RATE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT CONTINUES TO BE
ADVECTED TOWARD THE TROPICAL CYCLONE BY A TROUGH OVER THE EXTREME
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS FLORIDA. HOWEVER...IN A COUPLE OF
DAYS...UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE CYCLONE...
CREATING A RATHER LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...WHICH SHOULD CUT DOWN ON
ANY DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 48 HOURS...THEN IS HIGHER THEREAFTER. THE
NEW FORECAST IS BETWEEN THE STATISTICAL MODELS AND THE INTENSITY
MODEL CONSENSUS. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE GFDL AND HWRF
STRENGTHEN THIS SYSTEM INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE IN A FEW DAYS...WHICH
IS NOT OUT OF QUESTION IF RICHARD DEVELOPS THE RIGHT INNER CORE
STRUCTURE.

THE STORM HAS BEEN ERRATICALLY MOVING DURING MOST OF ITS LIFE...AND
A LONG-TERM MOTION IS ABOUT 135/5. CURRENTLY RICHARD IS UNDERGOING
AN ANTICYCLONIC LOOP AS IT IS CAUGHT IN AN AREA OF RELATIVELY LIGHT
STEERING BETWEEN A TROUGH TO THE NORTH AND A DISTANT RIDGE OVER THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC. BY LATE TOMORROW...RIDGING SHOULD REBUILD OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO MOVE MORE TO
THE WEST...AND EVENTUALLY WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST IN A FEW DAYS.
THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO APPEARS TO BE THE
KEY FEATURE IN THE LONG-RANGE FORECAST. GENERALLY THE GLOBAL
MODELS WITH A STRONG RIDGE...SUCH AS THE GFS/NOGAPS...KEEP RICHARD
ON A MORE NORTHWESTERLY HEADING WHEN THE CYCLONE APPROACHES THE
GULF OF MEXICO. HOWEVER...THE MODELS WITH A WEAKER RIDGE...SUCH AS
THE UKMET/ECMWF...AND TO AN EXTREME DEGREE THE HWRF/GFDL...SHOW THE
RIDGE BEING ERODED RATHER QUICKLY AS A NEW UPSTREAM TROUGH DIVES
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE IS NOW
SUGGESTING THE WEAKER RIDGE IS MORE LIKELY...AND THE NHC FORECAST
IS SHIFTED TO THE NORTHEAST AT DAYS 4 AND 5. CONSIDERING THAT THE
NEW FORECAST IS STILL ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...
FURTHER NORTHEASTWARD ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE REQUIRED IF CURRENT MODEL
TRENDS CONTINUE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 21/1500Z 16.2N 80.4W 35 KT
12HR VT 22/0000Z 16.0N 80.4W 40 KT
24HR VT 22/1200Z 15.9N 80.9W 50 KT
36HR VT 23/0000Z 16.0N 81.6W 55 KT
48HR VT 23/1200Z 16.2N 82.4W 65 KT
72HR VT 24/1200Z 17.4N 85.2W 80 KT
96HR VT 25/1200Z 19.5N 88.0W 45 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 26/1200Z 22.0N 89.0W 35 KT...OVER WATER

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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Re: ATL : RICHARD - Advisories

#5 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 21, 2010 3:35 pm

000
WTNT24 KNHC 212033
TCMAT4
TROPICAL STORM RICHARD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010
2100 UTC THU OCT 21 2010

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER WESTWARD
TO LIMON.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* HONDURAS FROM THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER WESTWARD TO LIMON.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF RICHARD.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 80.4W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OR 155 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 80.4W AT 21/2100Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 80.4W

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 15.8N 80.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 15.7N 81.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 15.9N 81.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...105NE 90SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 16.3N 83.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 25NW.
34 KT...105NE 90SE 45SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 17.5N 86.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 35NW.
34 KT...120NE 105SE 60SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 19.5N 88.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 21.5N 89.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 80.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RICHARD ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010
500 PM EDT THU OCT 21 2010

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR HONDURAS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 80.4W
ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM SSE OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM ENE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSE OR 155 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER WESTWARD
TO LIMON.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* HONDURAS FROM THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER WESTWARD TO LIMON.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF RICHARD.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RICHARD WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.4 WEST. RICHARD IS
DRIFTING TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/HR. A GRADUAL
TRACK TOWARD THE SOUTH...SOUTHWEST...AND WEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AT A SLOW FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND
RICHARD COULD BECOME A HURRICANE OVER THE WEEKEND.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...
165 KM...MAINLY EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...RICHARD IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER JAMAICA...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE
RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

000
WTNT44 KNHC 212034
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM RICHARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010
500 PM EDT THU OCT 21 2010

THERE HAS NOT BEEN A LOT OF CHANGE WITH RICHARD DURING THE PAST
FEW HOURS. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO FIND...BUT APPEARS
TO BE JUST WEST OF A PERSISTENT BALL OF CONVECTION. THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM REMAINS WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION...A SIGN
OF THE DRIER AIR IN THAT VICINITY. ALTHOUGH SATELLITE ESTIMATES
HAVE INCREASED...OVERALL THE SYSTEM LOOKS A LITTLE STRETCHED AND
THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE AIRCRAFT WILL BE IN THE AREA THIS EVENING...WHICH
WILL PROVIDE A BETTER ASSESSMENT OF THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM.

THE BEST ESTIMATE OF CURRENT MOTION IS ABOUT 155/3. A TROUGH OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN HAS BEEN STEERING
THE SYSTEM SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE PAST DAY OR SO.
HOWEVER... THIS TROUGH IS IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING OUT OF THE
AREA...WHICH WILL ALLOW A RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
WHILE THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THE STORM
EVENTUALLY TURNING BACK TOWARD THE WEST IN A DAY OR SO...THEY ARE
IN RATHER POOR AGREEMENT AFTER THAT TIME DUE TO VARYING RIDGE
STRENGTHS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. ALL OF THE FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS
SHIFTED WELL TOWARD THE LEFT...AFTER MOVING TOWARD THE RIGHT
OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE ERRATIC BEHAVIOR OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...A
LUXURY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES NOT HAVE...THIS IS A LOW
CONFIDENCE TRACK FORECAST. THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS ACTUALLY NOW IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK...AND LITTLE CHANGE WILL
BE MADE TO THE NHC FORECAST. THE NEW 48-HOUR FORECAST POINT IS
CLOSE ENOUGH TO HONDURAS TO WARRANT A TROPICAL STORM WATCH.

CONVECTION HAS BEEN GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATING NEAR THE CENTER....WITH
CIRRUS BEGINNING TO FAN OUT IN MOST QUADRANTS. THE MAIN INHIBITOR TO
FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS PROBABLY THE VERY DRY AIR ALOFT SEEN TO
THE NORTHWEST OF RICHARD. HOWEVER...MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN A DAY OR TWO AS MOIST EASTERLY
MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AND THE
CYCLONE MOVES INTO WEAKER SHEAR CONDITIONS. SIGNIFICANT
INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE IF THE SYSTEM REMAINS FAR ENOUGH AWAY
FROM LAND...AND THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS STILL STRENGTHEN THIS
SYSTEM INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE IN A FEW DAYS. THE NHC FORECAST WILL
REMAIN CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...MOSTLY BECAUSE OF THE TRACK
UNCERTAINTY AND THE HIGHER POSSIBILITY OF EARLIER LAND INTERACTION.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 21/2100Z 16.0N 80.4W 35 KT
12HR VT 22/0600Z 15.8N 80.6W 45 KT
24HR VT 22/1800Z 15.7N 81.1W 50 KT
36HR VT 23/0600Z 15.9N 81.9W 60 KT
48HR VT 23/1800Z 16.3N 83.0W 65 KT
72HR VT 24/1800Z 17.5N 86.0W 80 KT
96HR VT 25/1800Z 19.5N 88.5W 40 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 26/1800Z 21.5N 89.0W 35 KT...OVER WATER

$$
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Re: ATL : RICHARD - Advisories

#6 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 21, 2010 6:46 pm

WTNT34 KNHC 212344
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RICHARD INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010
800 PM EDT THU OCT 21 2010

...RICHARD NEARLY STATIONARY WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 80.5W
ABOUT 230 MI...375 KM SSE OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 190 MI...310 KM ENE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSE OR 160 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...3 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* HONDURAS FROM THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER WESTWARD TO LIMON.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF RICHARD.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RICHARD WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.5 WEST. RICHARD IS
DRIFTING TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST NEAR 2 MPH...3 KM/HR. A GRADUAL
TRACK TOWARD THE SOUTH...SOUTHWEST...AND WEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AT A SLOW FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
RICHARD COULD BECOME A HURRICANE OVER THE WEEKEND.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...
165 KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...RICHARD IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER JAMAICA...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE
RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
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Re: ATL : RICHARD - Advisories

#7 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 21, 2010 9:36 pm

000
WTNT34 KNHC 220233
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RICHARD ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010
1100 PM EDT THU OCT 21 2010

...RICHARD CONTINUES TO MEANDER...A SLOW SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD
MOTION IS EXPECTED...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 80.5W
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM S OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM ENE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSE OR 160 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...3 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* HONDURAS FROM THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER WESTWARD TO LIMON.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF RICHARD.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RICHARD WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.5 WEST. RICHARD IS
MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST NEAR 2 MPH...3 KM/HR. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE SOUTH...SOUTHWEST...AND WEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND RICHARD COULD BECOME A HURRICANE OVER THE WEEKEND.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...RICHARD IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL MAY BEGIN TO
AFFECT EASTERN HONDURAS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BEVEN
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Re: ATL : RICHARD - Advisories

#8 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 21, 2010 9:39 pm

WTNT44 KNHC 220237
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM RICHARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010
1100 PM EDT THU OCT 21 2010

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT RICHARD
HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION SINCE EARLIER TODAY. THE
MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BEEN AROUND 30 KT AND SURFACE WINDS
FROM THE SFMR ARE AROUND 35 KT...WITH A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1007
MB. BASED UPON THESE MEASUREMENTS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS
ADVISORY IS BEING HELD AT 35 KT. SATELLITE IMAGES REINFORCE THIS
ASSESSMENT OF THE INTENSITY. THEY SHOW THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION
OF THE CYCLONE IS SOMEWHAT LINEAR AND THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME
SOMEWHAT RAGGED...WITH THE SURFACE CENTER LOCATED TO THE WEST OF
THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS.

RECON FIXES YIELD AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 160/02. RICHARD IS
MEANDERING IN A REGION OF WEAK STEERING LOCATED AT THE BASE OF A
TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES/WESTERN ATLANTIC.
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
WILL BUILD EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND PUSH THE
CYCLONE ON A GENERALLY WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE WITH
SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED
SOUTHWARD THIS CYCLE AND HAS COME INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT AT
LATER TIMES...WITH THE GFDL/HWRF SOLUTIONS NOW CLOSER TO THE MORE
CONSISTENT GLOBAL MODELS. HOWEVER...SPREAD CONTINUES IN THE
SOLUTIONS EVEN IN THE EARLY PART OF THE FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL NHC
TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT BASED UPON THE TREND IN THE
GUIDANCE BUT NOT AS FAR LEFT AS THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THE NEW
TRACK IS ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

VARIOUS ANALYSES INDICATE A CONTINUATION OF AROUND 10 KT OF
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER RICHARD. THE
CYCLONE IS ALSO ENTRAINING DRY AIR PUSHED INTO THE AREA BY THE U.
S. TROUGH. BOTH OF THESE FACTORS APPEAR TO BE PREVENTING
INTENSIFICATION AT THE MOMENT. AFTER ABOUT 24 HOURS...THE SHIPS
MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS THE SHEAR DECREASING...AND THE CYCLONE GRADUALLY
BECOMING EMBEDDED IN A MORE MOIST ENVIRONMENT OVER THE WARM WATERS
OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. AS A RESULT OF THIS
EVOLUTION...RICHARD IS FORECAST TO BEGIN STRENGTHENING. THE ONE
CAVEAT TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE POTENTIAL INTERACTION
OF THE CYCLONE WITH LAND WHICH COULD OCCUR EARLIER IF THE SYSTEM
MOVES SOUTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK. THE OFFICIAL NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS LARGELY UNCHANGED AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
LGEM/MULTI-MODEL INTENSITY CONSENSUS IVCN.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/0300Z 15.9N 80.5W 35 KT
12HR VT 22/1200Z 15.8N 81.0W 40 KT
24HR VT 23/0000Z 15.8N 81.6W 45 KT
36HR VT 23/1200Z 16.0N 82.6W 55 KT
48HR VT 24/0000Z 16.5N 84.0W 65 KT
72HR VT 25/0000Z 17.5N 87.0W 75 KT
96HR VT 26/0000Z 19.5N 89.0W 40 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 27/0000Z 21.5N 89.0W 30 KT...OVER WATER

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BEVEN
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Re: ATL : RICHARD - Advisories

#9 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 22, 2010 6:57 am

000
WTNT34 KNHC 221155
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RICHARD INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010
800 AM EDT FRI OCT 22 2010

...RICHARD EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD AND STRENGTHEN LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 80.7W
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM S OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM ENE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* HONDURAS FROM THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER WESTWARD TO LIMON.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE
COAST OF HONDURAS LATER TODAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF RICHARD.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RICHARD WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.7 WEST. RICHARD
HAS BEEN MOVING ERRATICALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT A
SLOW WESTWARD MOTION WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND
RICHARD COULD BECOME A HURRICANE OVER THE WEEKEND.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...
165 KM...TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER DATA IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...RICHARD IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 5 INCHES OVER NORTHERN HONDURAS WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL
AMOUNTS AROUND 7 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

$$
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Re: ATL : RICHARD - Advisories

#10 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 22, 2010 12:48 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RICHARD INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010
200 PM EDT FRI OCT 22 2010

...RICHARD EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY LATER TODAY....


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 81.3W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM ENE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HONDURAS FROM THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER WESTWARD TO LIMON.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HONDURAS FROM THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER WESTWARD TO LIMON.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF RICHARD.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RICHARD WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.3 WEST. RICHARD IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/HR...AND A WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION AT AN INCREASING FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...RICHARD
SHOULD APPROACH NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS LATE SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND
RICHARD COULD BECOME A HURRICANE OVER THE WEEKEND.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165
KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...RICHARD IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 5 INCHES OVER NORTHERN HONDURAS WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL
AMOUNTS AROUND 7 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER
NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY LATE SATURDAY.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN THAT AREA ON SUNDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
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#11 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Oct 22, 2010 3:50 pm

804
WTNT24 KNHC 222048
TCMAT4
TROPICAL STORM RICHARD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010
2100 UTC FRI OCT 22 2010

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH AND A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
COAST OF HONDURAS FROM WEST OF LIMON TO THE BORDER OF GUATEMALA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
COAST OF BELIZE.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE COAST
OF EASTERN MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA SOUTHWARD TO CHETUMAL.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HONDURAS FROM THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER WESTWARD TO LIMON AND
THE BAY ISLANDS
* EAST COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA TO CHETUMAL

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HONDURAS FROM THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER WESTWARD TO LIMON AND
THE BAY ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HONDURAS FROM WEST OF LIMON TO THE GUATEMALA BORDER.
* BELIZE

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF RICHARD.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 81.7W AT 22/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 81.7W AT 22/2100Z
AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 81.5W

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 16.2N 82.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 16.3N 83.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 16.7N 85.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...105NE 90SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 17.2N 86.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 45SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...105NE 105SE 40SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 18.2N 89.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 45NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 20.0N 91.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 22.0N 92.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 81.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z

$$
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Re: ATL : RICHARD - Advisories

#12 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 22, 2010 4:09 pm

TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM RICHARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010
500 PM EDT FRI OCT 22 2010

THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE APPEARANCE OF RICHARD HAS SOMEWHAT
DETERIORATED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS
SHRUNK AND BECOME DISTORTED...WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES PRESENT IN
THE WESTERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION. IN ADDITION...ASCAT DATA FROM
1536 UTC CONFIRMS THE ELONGATED CIRCULATION PRESENT ON THE LAST
HURRICANE HUNTER MISSION...WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
FROM THE STORM. DESPITE THESE CONDITIONS...NOAA BUOY 42057 HAS
REPORTED PEAK ONE-MINUTE WINDS OF 35-37 KT DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS. DVORAK VALUES ARE 45 KT FROM BOTH TAFB/SAB... AND 61 KT
FROM THE CIMSS ADT. GIVEN THE ABOVE DATA...THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE
SET BETWEEN THE BUOY AND THE SATELLITE DATA TO 40 KT.

THE CENTER APPEARS TO HAVE REFORMED A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE DEEP
CONVECTION TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE PREVIOUS CENTER. THE BEST
ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS A LITTLE FASTER TO THE WEST...AT
ABOUT 4 KT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON AN
ACCELERATING MOTION TOWARD THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST DUE TO
RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. PERHAPS BECAUSE OF THE STRONGER
RIDGE...THE MODELS ARE A LITTLE FASTER THAN EARLIER...AND THE NHC
FORECAST FOLLOWS THAT TREND. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE PERIOD DUE TO A
TROUGH ERODING THE GULF OF MEXICO RIDGE.

AS FAR AS THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS CONCERNED...RICHARD HAS
STRUGGLED WITH DRY AIR AND SOME WESTERLY SHEAR MUCH LONGER THAN THE
MODELS...AND FORECASTERS...EXPECTED. VISIBLE SATELLITE ALSO
SUGGESTS SOME UNDERCUTTING OF THE CIRRUS LAYER...WHICH MATCHES UP
WITH RECENT G-IV DROPS ON THE WEST SIDE OF RICHARD OF WESTERLY
WINDS FROM 250-300 MB. THESE WESTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST BY THE
GLOBAL MODELS TO REVERSE TO AN EASTERLY COMPONENT WITHIN 24 HOURS.
THIS CHANGE MAY HERALD AN INTENSIFICATION PHASE...WHICH COULD BE
RAPID IN NATURE GIVEN THE VERY LIGHT SHEAR FORECAST AND THE WARM
DEEP WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. THE NHC FORECAST IS
INCREASED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT IS NOT NEARLY AS BULLISH AS
THE GFDL MODEL...WHICH MAKES RICHARD A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE
LANDFALL. CONDITIONS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ARE LIKELY TO BE TOO
HOSTILE FOR MUCH REINTENSIFICATION OF RICHARD.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/2100Z 16.2N 81.7W 40 KT
12HR VT 23/0600Z 16.2N 82.5W 45 KT
24HR VT 23/1800Z 16.3N 83.7W 50 KT
36HR VT 24/0600Z 16.7N 85.3W 60 KT
48HR VT 24/1800Z 17.2N 86.9W 75 KT
72HR VT 25/1800Z 18.2N 89.7W 45 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 26/1800Z 20.0N 91.5W 30 KT...OVER WATER
120HR VT 27/1800Z 22.0N 92.5W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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Re: ATL : RICHARD - Advisories

#13 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 22, 2010 6:40 pm

000
WTNT34 KNHC 222338
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RICHARD INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010
800 PM EDT FRI OCT 22 2010

...RICHARD MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD TOWARD NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 82.3W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM NE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 285 MI...465 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HONDURAS FROM THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER WESTWARD TO LIMON AND
THE BAY ISLANDS
* EAST COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA TO CHETUMAL

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HONDURAS FROM THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER WESTWARD TO LIMON AND
THE BAY ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HONDURAS FROM WEST OF LIMON TO THE GUATEMALA BORDER.
* BELIZE

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF RICHARD.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RICHARD WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.3 WEST. RICHARD IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR. A WEST TO WEST-
NORTHWEST MOTION AT AN INCREASING FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...RICHARD
SHOULD APPROACH NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS LATE SATURDAY...AND COULD
APPROACH THE COASTS OF BELIZE AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO LATE ON
SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND
RICHARD IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE OVER THE WEEKEND.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165
KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
AIRCRAFT IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...RICHARD IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 5 INCHES OVER NORTHERN HONDURAS AND THE BAY ISLANDS WITH
MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS AROUND 7 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY
IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER
NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS WITHIN THE WARNING AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH
HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THAT AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTS OF BELIZE AND
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO BY LATE SUNDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/KIMBERLAIN
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#14 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Oct 22, 2010 9:44 pm

TROPICAL STORM RICHARD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010
0300 UTC SAT OCT 23 2010

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM LIMON WESTWARD TO THE HONDURAS/
GUATEMALA BORDER.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HONDURAS FROM THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER WESTWARD TO LIMON AND
THE BAY ISLANDS
* EAST COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA TO CHETUMAL

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HONDURAS FROM THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER WESTWARD TO THE
HONDURAS/GUATEMALA BORDER...AND THE BAY ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BELIZE

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF RICHARD.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 82.4W AT 23/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 75NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 82.4W AT 23/0300Z
AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 82.1W

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 15.8N 83.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 16.1N 84.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 16.4N 86.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...105NE 90SE 40SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 16.8N 88.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 40SE 25SW 40NW.
34 KT...105NE 90SE 50SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 18.0N 90.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 20.5N 92.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 22.5N 93.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 82.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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Re: ATL : RICHARD - Advisories

#15 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 22, 2010 10:02 pm

HC 230248
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM RICHARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010
1100 PM EDT FRI OCT 22 2010

RICHARD REMAINS A RAGGED TROPICAL CYCLONE THIS EVENING. THE
CONVECTION IS IN POORLY DEFINED BANDS EAST OF THE CENTER...AND DATA
FROM A NOAA GULFSTREAM-IV MISSION SHOWS A PRONOUNCED TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE CENTER. IN ADDITION...AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED THAT THE STORM HAS A
LARGE AREA OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS NEAR THE CENTER. THE AIR
FORCE PLANE REPORTED 925 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 40 KT AND
SFMR-ESTIMATED SURFACE WINDS OF 35-40 KT. BASED ON THESE AND
EARLIER BUOY DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 40 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/6. THE INITIAL POSITION IS A LITTLE TO
THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND THUS THE FORECAST TRACK IS
ADJUSTED TO THE SOUTH. OTHER THAN THAT...THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. A BUILDING LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO STEER RICHARD WESTWARD TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE
NEXT 72 HR. AFTER THAT TIME...THE CYCLONE OR ITS REMNANTS ARE
EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW NEAR THE
WESTERN END OF THE GULF RIDGE. THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST IS
MORE UNCERTAIN DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF THE
RIDGE AND HOW STRONG RICHARD MIGHT BE AFTER CROSSING BELIZE AND
MEXICO. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT ANY MOTION SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
TRACK DURING THE FIRST 36 HR COULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR OR OVER
THE COAST OF NORTHERN HONDURAS.

WHILE RICHARD HAS FAIR TO GOOD CIRRUS OUTFLOW IN ALL DIRECTIONS...
THE G-IV DATA SHOW A BAND OF WESTERLY WINDS AT 300 MB BLOWING
UNDER THE CIRRUS INTO THE STORM. THESE WINDS ARE CREATING ABOUT 15
KT OF WESTERLY SHEAR AND ADVECTING VERY DRY UPPER-LEVEL AIR INTO
THE CORE. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THIS SHEAR TO DIMINISH
BY SATURDAY MORNING...AND IF THIS VERIFIES RICHARD IS EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY SHOWING LESS
DEVELOPMENT THAN DURING THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLES...AND THE GFDL
NO LONGER FORECASTS RICHARD TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE. BASED ON
THIS...THE CURRENT STATE OF THE STORM...AND THE INCREASED CHANCE OF
RICHARD INTERACTING WITH NORTHERN HONDURAS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST
HAS BEEN REVISED DOWNWARD DURING THE FIRST 72 HR. AFTER EMERGING
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...RICHARD IS FORECAST TO ENCOUNTER STRONG
WESTERLY SHEAR WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE IT TO WEAKEN.

HURRICANE WARNINGS AND WATCHES ARE LIKELY TO BE REQUIRED FOR
PORTIONS ON BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON SATURDAY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/0300Z 15.8N 82.4W 40 KT
12HR VT 23/1200Z 15.8N 83.3W 40 KT
24HR VT 24/0000Z 16.1N 84.8W 45 KT
36HR VT 24/1200Z 16.4N 86.4W 55 KT
48HR VT 25/0000Z 16.8N 88.1W 65 KT
72HR VT 26/0000Z 18.0N 90.5W 35 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 27/0000Z 20.5N 92.5W 30 KT...OVER WATER
120HR VT 28/0000Z 22.5N 93.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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#16 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Oct 23, 2010 12:51 am

TROPICAL STORM RICHARD INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010
200 AM EDT SAT OCT 23 2010

...RICHARD APPROACHING THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 82.6W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM NE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 270 MI...430 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HONDURAS FROM THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER WESTWARD TO LIMON AND
THE BAY ISLANDS
* EAST COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA TO CHETUMAL

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HONDURAS FROM THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER WESTWARD TO THE
HONDURAS/GUATEMALA BORDER...AND THE BAY ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BELIZE

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF RICHARD.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RICHARD WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.6 WEST. RICHARD IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A WESTWARD TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
RICHARD IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF
HONDURAS TODAY...NEAR OR OVER THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS SATURDAY
NIGHT OR SUNDAY...AND COULD APPROACH THE COASTS OF BELIZE AND
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO LATE SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND
RICHARD IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1
TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF
HONDURAS AND IN THE BAY ISLANDS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

RAINFALL...RICHARD IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 5 INCHES OVER NORTHERN HONDURAS AND THE BAY ISLANDS WITH
MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS AROUND 7 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY
IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER
NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS WITHIN THE WARNING AREA TODAY...WITH
HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THAT AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTS OF BELIZE AND
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO BY LATE SUNDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN
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#17 Postby Extratropical94 » Sat Oct 23, 2010 3:56 am

000
WTNT34 KNHC 230852
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RICHARD ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010
500 AM EDT SAT OCT 23 2010

...RICHARD CHANGES LITTLE IN STRENGTH...CENTER NEARING THE
NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 83.2W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM N OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HONDURAS FROM THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER WESTWARD TO LIMON AND
THE BAY ISLANDS
* EAST COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA TO CHETUMAL

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HONDURAS FROM THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER WESTWARD TO THE
HONDURAS/GUATEMALA BORDER...AND THE BAY ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BELIZE

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF RICHARD.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RICHARD WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.2 WEST. RICHARD IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A WESTWARD TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
RICHARD IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF
HONDURAS TODAY...NEAR OR OVER THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS TONIGHT OR
SUNDAY...AND COULD APPROACH THE COASTS OF BELIZE AND SOUTHEASTERN
MEXICO LATE SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND
RICHARD COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH ON SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1
TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF
HONDURAS AND IN THE BAY ISLANDS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

RAINFALL...RICHARD IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 5 INCHES OVER NORTHERN HONDURAS AND THE BAY ISLANDS WITH
MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS AROUND 7 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY
IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER
NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS WITHIN THE WARNING AREA TODAY...WITH
HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THAT AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTS OF BELIZE AND
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO BY LATE SUNDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN
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#18 Postby Extratropical94 » Sat Oct 23, 2010 3:57 am

000
WTNT44 KNHC 230856
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM RICHARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010
500 AM EDT SAT OCT 23 2010

THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH RICHARD REMAINS DISTORTED
WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER NORTHEASTWARD. DATA FROM A NOAA RESEARCH MISSION
AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORT MAINTAINING RICHARD AS A
40-KT TROPICAL STORM FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE CENTER OF RICHARD HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE IN INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THERE HAVE BEEN MIXED SIGNALS FROM THE
AIRCRAFT DATA...WITH DROPSONDE OBSERVATIONS SUGGESTING THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER WAS LOCATED WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
FLIGHT-LEVEL CENTER AT ABOUT 12000 FT. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN
THE CENTER LOCATION...THE INITIAL MOTION OF 270/7 IS OF LOW
CONFIDENCE. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED. A
WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. DURING THAT
TIME...RICHARD IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF
HONDURAS...HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE CENTER WILL MOVE
INLAND. AFTER 48 HOURS...THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS GENERALLY SHIFTED
SOUTHWARD AND MANY OF THE MODELS DISSIPATE RICHARD BEFORE IT ENTERS
THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT...AND FUTURE FORECASTS MAY NEED TO BE MOVED IN
THAT DIRECTION.

THE TROPICAL STORM HAS BEEN BATTLING SHEAR AND DRY AIR DURING THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH HAS PREVENTED THE CYCLONE FROM
STRENGTHENING. ALTHOUGH THE GLOBAL MODELS AND SHIPS GUIDANCE SHOW
THESE PARAMETERS BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...POSSIBLE LAND INTERACTION WITH HONDURAS
COULD BE AN INHIBITING FACTOR. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
HAS ONCE AGAIN BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD...AND IS NOW ABOVE ALL OF THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

IF THE CENTER REMAINS OFFSHORE OF HONDURAS...WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TODAY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/0900Z 15.8N 83.2W 40 KT
12HR VT 23/1800Z 16.0N 84.3W 45 KT
24HR VT 24/0600Z 16.3N 85.9W 50 KT
36HR VT 24/1800Z 16.6N 87.7W 60 KT
48HR VT 25/0600Z 17.0N 89.1W 50 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 26/0600Z 17.8N 91.6W 30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 27/0600Z 19.5N 93.0W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT 28/0600Z 21.0N 94.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN
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Re: ATL : RICHARD - Advisories

#19 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 23, 2010 6:59 am

WTNT34 KNHC 231157
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RICHARD INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010
800 AM EDT SAT OCT 23 2010

...AIR FORCE PLANE FINDS THAT RICHARD HAS REFORMED TO THE EAST...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 83.0W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM N OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 4 MPH...6 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HONDURAS FROM THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER WESTWARD TO LIMON AND
THE BAY ISLANDS
* EAST COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA TO CHETUMAL

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HONDURAS FROM THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER WESTWARD TO THE
HONDURAS/GUATEMALA BORDER...AND THE BAY ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BELIZE

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF RICHARD.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RICHARD WAS
RELOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.0 WEST. RICHARD IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 4 MPH...6 KM/HR. A WESTWARD TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
RICHARD IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF
HONDURAS TODAY...NEAR OR OVER THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS TONIGHT OR
SUNDAY...AND COULD APPROACH THE COASTS OF BELIZE AND SOUTHEASTERN
MEXICO LATE SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND
RICHARD COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH LATE ON SUNDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF
HONDURAS AND IN THE BAY ISLANDS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

RAINFALL...RICHARD IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 5 INCHES OVER NORTHERN HONDURAS AND THE BAY ISLANDS WITH
MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS AROUND 7 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY
IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER
NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS WITHIN THE WARNING AREA TODAY...WITH
HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THAT AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTS OF BELIZE AND
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO BY LATE SUNDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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#20 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Oct 23, 2010 9:47 am

280
WTNT34 KNHC 231446
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RICHARD ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010
1100 AM EDT SAT OCT 23 2010

...RICHARD RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS OFF THE NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS
COAST...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 83.5W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM NNW OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
COAST OF HONDURAS FROM LIMON WESTWARD TO PUERTO CORTES AND THE BAY
ISLANDS...INCLUDING ROATAN...UTILA...AND GUANAJA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
EAST COAST OF YUCATAN MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA TO CHETUMAL.

THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
COAST OF BELIZE.


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HONDURAS FROM LIMON WESTWARD TO PUERTO CORTES AND THE BAY
ISLANDS...INCLUDING ROATAN...UTILA...AND GUANAJA

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HONDURAS FROM EAST OF LIMON TO THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER
* EAST COAST OF YUCATAN MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA TO CHETUMAL

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BELIZE
* HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUERTO CORTES TO THE HONDURAS/GUATEMALA
BORDER AND FROM EAST OF LIMON TO THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF
GUATEMALA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RICHARD WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.5 WEST. RICHARD IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A WESTWARD TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RICHARD IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR
OR OVER THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS TODAY...NEAR OR OVER THE
BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS EARLY SUNDAY...AND COULD APPROACH THE
COASTS OF BELIZE AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO BY LATE SUNDAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RICHARD IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
HURRICANE ON SUNDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON RECONNAISSANCE DATA IS
1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF
HONDURAS AND IN THE BAY ISLANDS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

RAINFALL...RICHARD IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 5 INCHES OVER NORTHERN HONDURAS...THE BAY ISLANDS...AND BELIZE
WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS AROUND 7 INCHES. THESE RAINS
COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...
ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER
NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS WITHIN THE WARNING AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA OF
HONDURAS EARLY SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ALONG THE COASTS OF BELIZE AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO ON SUNDAY...
WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THOSE AREAS LATE SUNDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART
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