ATL: RICHARD - Models

[Ntxw]

^ Really? I used that wording because I am not 100% confident Fl is safe. Why would I say it is when clearly nothing ever is that out in advance? But there is no model guidance to support such a Florida threat right now. That's where my confidence in it comes from. And I agree Boca is probably giving up a bit too soon but there is some merit to that thinking for him.

[LarryWx]

^ Really? I used that wording because I am not 100% confident Fl is safe. Why would I say it is when clearly nothing ever is that out in advance? But there is no model guidance to support such a Florida threat RIGHT NOW. That's where my confidence in it comes from.

What you're saying sounds reasonable. The way you worded your thoughts was appropriate. However, my comment was to Boca, who worded it like it was a 100% done deal in his mind. I was just saying that it is definitely not a 100% done deal in my mind. That's all.

[Ntxw]

The 12z nam today has it coming into Honduras for a short time before emerging just north of the coast within 48 hours time frame.

[Weatherfreak000]

Hard to believe the westward solution is poised to win out with the models strongly favoring a nice ridge defending SFL. I think honestly we need to maybe just think twice before being so hasty with the Floridians and see it from their perspective. I would be absolutely surprised given the time of year and position of Richard that he really wouldn't curve east. Now as it stands that appears to not be the case due to the ridging but also because troughiness has been so dominant this season.


Massive troughiness and ridging seems to dominant really strong ENSO events. Perhaps that is why Neutral is so dangerous after all...

[crimi481]

Not sure -but possibly center re-forming more north than NHC position forecast

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo/index ... thod=flash

[wxman57]

Maybe a graphic would help to visualize the projected steering currents for tomorrow and Sunday?

Here's a 700-400mb steering flow projection from the 12Z GFS valid 18Z tomorrow:


And Sunday:


I don't see much chance of a track toward Florida initially. And the cold front may reach the central FL Peninsula by Friday. Could be some residual moisture tracking up the front across south Florida Friday/Saturday of next week.

[wxman57]

If Richard does reach the BoC on Wednesday, then it would be at least 2 days away from possibly reaching the NE Gulf or Florida. However, if the latest GFS (and 00Z Canadian) are right, the Gulf will be a quite hostile place by next Thu-Fri with plenty of cool/dry air flowing southward behind a moderate cold front. That includes Florida.

[Toth]

One question as to the various models relating to the forecast track of RICHARD.

What makes the LBAR model show such a radically different path as shown by all the others? Being the "outlier oddball" doesn't confer greater accuracy but it can be worrisome to have model convergence with respect to all but one model.

[Ntxw]

One question as to the various models relating to the forecast track of RICHARD.

What makes the LBAR model show such a radically different path as shown by all the others? Being the "outlier oddball" doesn't confer greater accuracy but it can be worrisome to have model convergence with respect to all but one model.

I don't know the answer for the particular situation but did find something from NOAA.

Strengths: LBAR runs quickly (the hurricane specialists can view the output of the 1200 UTC LBAR run before they have to complete their 1500 UTC package). LBAR performs best early in the hurricane season (before fronts penetrate into the subtropics) and on storms that move primarily westward and only move slowly northward. LBAR outperforms all the statistical track guidance models, and its skill in the 12-36 hr time frame is comparable to that of the more complex baroclinic models.

Weaknesses: LBAR does not perform well whenever there is significant vertical wind shear, or when there are multiple, interacting storms.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Tonight don't we get G-IV info into the models? Also, having a much deeper system than what the models had to deal with last night and this morning may lead to different solutions. I think we are in the windshield wiper blade stage of the models. Yesterdays methodology was that there were 2 camps...slow development/weak storm heads west over the weekend. A faster developing/deeper system will be steered more northerly.
Not sure why that has changed today? The models simply jumped onboard to the weaker state that the storm was in last night.
With updated info tonight, we could see some changes in model forecasts, depending on the strength of the system and what the new synoptic data says.

-or is G-IV data coming in Saturday night? Either way, I think today and tomorrow are the strength definers to see if this tries to go poleward, being tugged by the front to the north before the ridge builds in, or simply meanders slowly until getting forced west the low level flow.

[Blown Away]

Tonight don't we get G-IV info into the models? Also, having a much deeper system than what the models had to deal with last night and this morning may lead to different solutions. I think we are in the windshield wiper blade stage of the models. Yesterdays methodology was that there were 2 camps...slow development/weak storm heads west over the weekend. A faster developing/deeper system will be steered more northerly.
Not sure why that has changed today? The models simply jumped onboard to the weeker state that the storm was in last night.
With updated info tonight, we could see some changes in model forecasts, depending on the strength of the system and what the new synoptic data says.

I always expect the unexpected with late season hurricane tracks. For now, Richard is behaving mostly as predicted, we shall see. I agree a deeper system moves more poleward, but I hope for the Yucatan's sake that doesn't happen because it is very unlikely Richard will turn before hitting that area regardless of strength.

[cycloneye]

12z GFDL has a cat 3 landfall in Belize.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[cycloneye]

Contrary to GFDL,the 12z HWRF is much more weaker,and has a strong TS making landfall in Belize.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[LarryWx]

The Euro (12z) remains totally unexciting for the U.S. with regard to Richard. The only real excitement is in/near N. Belize.

[cycloneye]

The Euro (12z) remains totally unexciting for the U.S. with regard to Richard. The only real excitement is in/near N. Belize.

What do you mean by the word excitement in Belize?

[LarryWx]

The Euro (12z) remains totally unexciting for the U.S. with regard to Richard. The only real excitement is in/near N. Belize.

What do you mean by the word excitement in Belize?

Luis,
It is a solid hit there late on Sunday afternoon. So, lots of action there.

[cycloneye]

Dynamic models as 12z.

[Blown Away]

Dynamic models as 18z.

Luis, the image does not display.

[HURAKAN]

Code: Select all

383
WHXX01 KWBC 230058
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0058 UTC SAT OCT 23 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE RICHARD (AL192010) 20101023 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        101023  0000   101023  1200   101024  0000   101024  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    15.8N  82.1W   15.9N  83.9W   16.0N  86.3W   16.1N  88.7W
BAMD    15.8N  82.1W   16.2N  83.5W   16.7N  85.1W   17.1N  87.0W
BAMM    15.8N  82.1W   16.0N  83.6W   16.3N  85.4W   16.5N  87.5W
LBAR    15.8N  82.1W   16.5N  83.5W   17.7N  84.9W   18.9N  86.2W
SHIP        40KTS          48KTS          55KTS          63KTS
DSHP        40KTS          48KTS          55KTS          63KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        101025  0000   101026  0000   101027  0000   101028  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    16.1N  90.7W   15.9N  93.6W   16.5N  95.3W   16.7N  97.3W
BAMD    17.5N  89.0W   18.3N  92.4W   19.7N  94.7W   21.3N  97.0W
BAMM    16.5N  89.5W   16.2N  93.2W   15.9N  96.2W   15.6N  99.1W
LBAR    20.3N  87.3W   23.4N  87.6W   26.1N  83.8W   25.4N  79.0W
SHIP        70KTS          72KTS          64KTS          54KTS
DSHP        70KTS          34KTS          29KTS          19KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  15.8N LONCUR =  82.1W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR =   6KT
LATM12 =  15.9N LONM12 =  80.9W DIRM12 = 265DEG SPDM12 =   5KT
LATM24 =  16.0N LONM24 =  80.4W
WNDCUR =   40KT RMAXWD =   70NM WNDM12 =   35KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  200NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =   75NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =  60NM

[Typhoon_Willie]

Looks like Richard is CA bound.