ATL : TOMAS - Models
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- Ivanhater
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Re:
boca wrote:How can we be totally sure Tomas won't affect Florida if the trough pulls out which of course is a timing issue and high pressure builds back in.It might not make that sharpe right turn towards DR.Things can change.
Missing the trough isn't the likely scenario, but it is still on the table.
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Michael
Re: Re:
Ivanhater wrote:boca wrote:How can we be totally sure Tomas won't affect Florida if the trough pulls out which of course is a timing issue and high pressure builds back in.It might not make that sharpe right turn towards DR.Things can change.
Missing the trough isn't the likely scenario, but it is still on the table.
I agree with ya.
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- Blown Away
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Re: ATL : TOMAS - Models
Is the the EURO the only model not recurving Tomas?
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- Ivanhater
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Re: ATL : TOMAS - Models
Blown Away wrote:Is the the EURO the only model not recurving Tomas?
The Euro and GFDL do not recurve.
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Michael
nor does the UKMET...
12Z loop...due west at the end of the run...
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... tLoop.html
12Z loop...due west at the end of the run...
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... tLoop.html
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Re:
boca wrote:How can we be totally sure Tomas won't affect Florida if the trough pulls out which of course is a timing issue and high pressure builds back in.It might not make that sharpe right turn towards DR.Things can change.
If it misses the trough it then you have to doubt it ever threatens FL. as well. Behind this trough will be a large CONUS ridge with lots of cool and dry air descending all the way through FL. I would suspect increasingly hostile UL winds to affect it in the central Carib. and a push westward toward CA.
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- Ivanhater
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Re: Re:
Dean4Storms wrote:boca wrote:How can we be totally sure Tomas won't affect Florida if the trough pulls out which of course is a timing issue and high pressure builds back in.It might not make that sharpe right turn towards DR.Things can change.
If it misses the trough it then you have to doubt it ever threatens FL. as well. Behind this trough will be a large CONUS ridge with lots of cool and dry air descending all the way through FL. I would suspect increasingly hostile UL winds to affect it in the central Carib. and a push westward toward CA.
The Euro misses the trough and continues to deepen it as it moves SW.
GFDL as well.
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Michael
GFS in the end takes this system into DR but way to close to Haiti and they'd undoubtably get lots of rain and wind from it if that were to occur...
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
Re: Re:
Dean4Storms wrote:boca wrote:How can we be totally sure Tomas won't affect Florida if the trough pulls out which of course is a timing issue and high pressure builds back in.It might not make that sharpe right turn towards DR.Things can change.
If it misses the trough it then you have to doubt it ever threatens FL. as well. Behind this trough will be a large CONUS ridge with lots of cool and dry air descending all the way through FL. I would suspect increasingly hostile UL winds to affect it in the central Carib. and a push westward toward CA.
Climo says that the chances of a US landfall are minute. Since 1851, there is not a single storm on record that was first designated a TC east of 60W after 10/9 that went on to make landfall in the contiguous 48 of the U.S. The latest developer occurred in 1887 (#13) on 10/9. Since Tomas was designated on 10/29, it would be 20 days later than the latest on record that formed east of 60W if it were to somehow hit the lower 48. If I were in FL, I wouldn't be worried/hopeful (depending on one's perspective).
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- cycloneye
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Re: ATL : TOMAS - Models
12z Tropical Models
Code: Select all
WHXX01 KWBC 301322
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1322 UTC SAT OCT 30 2010
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE TOMAS (AL212010) 20101030 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
101030 1200 101031 0000 101031 1200 101101 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.1N 60.1W 14.1N 62.9W 14.9N 65.9W 15.7N 68.9W
BAMD 13.1N 60.1W 14.0N 62.1W 14.8N 63.9W 15.8N 65.6W
BAMM 13.1N 60.1W 13.8N 62.2W 14.4N 64.3W 15.0N 66.6W
LBAR 13.1N 60.1W 14.7N 61.8W 16.1N 63.3W 17.3N 64.3W
SHIP 65KTS 75KTS 80KTS 81KTS
DSHP 65KTS 75KTS 80KTS 81KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
101101 1200 101102 1200 101103 1200 101104 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.2N 71.9W 16.3N 76.8W 15.2N 79.8W 13.2N 79.3W
BAMD 16.6N 67.2W 17.7N 69.4W 19.1N 69.1W 21.0N 66.3W
BAMM 15.5N 68.8W 16.0N 72.6W 16.1N 75.0W 15.3N 75.6W
LBAR 18.0N 64.8W 17.9N 64.7W 17.5N 63.5W 17.7N 61.9W
SHIP 80KTS 77KTS 70KTS 75KTS
DSHP 80KTS 77KTS 70KTS 75KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.1N LONCUR = 60.1W DIRCUR = 305DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 11.9N LONM12 = 57.8W DIRM12 = 313DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 10.0N LONM24 = 55.3W
WNDCUR = 65KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 50KT
CENPRS = 993MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 225NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 150NM RD34SE = 80NM RD34SW = 50NM RD34NW = 90NM
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- AdamFirst
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Re: ATL : TOMAS - Models
GFS 150HR
Landfall into Dominican Republic heading north
192HR
Riding out to the graveyard on huge Nor'easter looking trough
Landfall into Dominican Republic heading north
192HR
Riding out to the graveyard on huge Nor'easter looking trough
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- AdamFirst
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Re: ATL : TOMAS - Models
CMC 114HR
Landfall in Jamacia, going north
Landfall in Jamacia, going north
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