Texas Winter 2010-2011

[Ntxw]

The AO continues to say 'What La Nada?!'. This must be some kind of record for such an extended period of negative AO's.

[Ntxw]

0z = big storm in Texas but not cold enough at the 850 lvl. Still close enough for optimism. Notice the big high building in NW Canada.

[iorange55]

The cold is a little further south than some of the last few runs. Maybe some trending in the right direction


Wow and after that it seems the cold comes down a little faster too. With maybe some light precipitation. I like this run.

[Ntxw]

Then a 1060 High wow. Also like the 12z euro tremendous cold with multiple storms kicking out of the SW into that cold air. Why can't this be the first half of the GFS! The models trends has been nailing the lee side of the rockies.

Doesn't get any better than this...I love lala land!





After that the cold blasts down to central america leaving the southern plains in single digits *dreams*.

[HockeyTx82]

I can't wait to see how this all plays out!

[orangeblood]

Wow!! Lala land is right. This is the coldest run I've ever seen the GFS produce for north Texas. It shows a high of 10/ low of -5 on Monday the 17th and then a high of 17/ low of -8 in the Dfw area the following day, which of course would set all time records. I think it's safe to say something brutally cold is coming but the new question is how cold can it get?

Numerous factors such as synoptic pattern, time of year, source region, and snowpack to the north all appear to be in favor of a major cold outbreak.

[HockeyTx82]

Wow!! Lala land is right. This is the coldest run I've ever seen the GFS produce for north Texas. It shows a high of 10/ low of -5 on Monday the 17th and then a high of 17/ low of -8 in the Dfw area the following day, which of course would set all time records. I think it's safe to say something brutally cold is coming but the new question is how cold can it get?

Numerous factors such as synoptic pattern, time of year, source region, and snowpack to the north all appear to be in favor of a major cold outbreak.

Dang, how often does the GFS show such cold temps that play out? That would cause a lot of problems around here!

[Ntxw]

Dang, how often does the GFS show such cold temps that play out? That would cause a lot of problems around here!

It does show long term cold often in lala land, but rarely the continuity as well as along with the ECMWF, that cold. All of the teleconnections (MJO, rising PNA, tanking AO, NAO, Stratospheric warming etc) have been aligning and we may just be seeing the first signs of the results.

[ROCK]

Not just for you NTexans.. ..us southern Texas folks having to deal with highs in the 20's and lows in the low teens....thats really going to cause some serious issues down here.

back to the 0z GFS...dont think I have ever seen a colder run for the lower 48 since I started looking at weather.

[Ntxw]

I know looking that far out is moot point, but you just simply don't see something like that. Had to post it. Just for fun, the all time record low in Oklahoma is -27 and that is possible in this particular snapshot.

[HockeyTx82]

Yup, that would bust some pipes around here! Just wondering, this air mass that might make it down this way, is it starting in Alaska or Russia/Siberia? The reason I ask is the year we had record cold down here Alaska set a all time low prior to that airmass moving south if I did my homework correctly. I read on this board that just the other day over in Russia the air temp was -90F. So perhaps something is on the march, that cold air has to move somewhere. Any thoughts? I have always heard check the source region and snowpack to the north. Correct me if I am wrong.

Posted from my mobile phone

[Ntxw]

Siberia, yes from this vantage point of cross polar flow so that's where it would be coming from. You don't get that cold simply from North America. The coldest air in the world is currently there and if we are able to tap into it,

BTW the Canadian currently shows 1050+ high crossing the pole beyond 150hrs.

[vbhoutex]

IFthat verified we would be seeing single digits in Houston. I know it is way to far out to even consider at this point, but that is some awfully cold air in Siberia and most reliable sources are saying the cold cross polar flow is a lock. The question will be where the core of it goes and how far South it makes it.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=REw7TCJnHso

check it out. Look where the bulk of the high is in this video, i havent checked the archives to see how strong this high was when it entered the lower 48 but it cant be much different then what the GFS is indicating. I have my eyes on this one. Alot of models are showing this and im getting excited. Like someone pointed out earlier, this could be a dangerous situation too. Im in the investment/stock market biz too, expect nat gas and crude prices to rise with this coming cold too :/

[srainhoutx]

So are seeing are we seeing a pattern change yet?

[TwisterFanatic]

I know looking that far out is moot point, but you just simply don't see something like that. Had to post it. Just for fun, the all time record low in Oklahoma is -27 and that is possible in this particular snapshot.

WOAH!, No thank you.

[iorange55]

Just to save this moment where it predicted below zero temps for Dallas.

[somethingfunny]

Holy expletive is right

[Texas Snowman]

Like I said, I think some historic cold is coming.

We may talk about January 2011 in the same hushed tones we do December 1983 and/or December 1989.

After all, it's been more than 20 years since a cold outbreak of that magnitude...

[Texas Snowman]

From OKC this morning.

All I can say is WOWZA. Double WOWZA.

Get the firewood ready....

SYSTEM DUE INTO THE TX/OK AREA THIS WEEKEND IS TRENDING TOWARD A
MORE SOUTHERN TRACK ACROSS TX. WE WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS MAINLY
ACROSS THE S SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. THIS LOOKS MOST LIKELY TO BE A
COLD LIGHT-RAIN EVENT IF IT HAPPENS THIS FAR N... BUT WITH
CANADIAN AIR BECOMING INVOLVED WE CANT BE TOO SURE. RAIN/SNOW MIX
WILL BE MAINTAINED CENTRAL/SW SAT NIGHT ALTHOUGH ANY WINTER-TYPE
PRECIP COULD BE ALMOST ANY VARIETY. WHATEVER HAPPENS THIS WEEKEND
IS LIKELY TO BE A MERE APPETIZER AHEAD OF THE MAIN COURSE OVER
THE FOLLOWING WEEK.

MORE ATTENTION CONTINUES TO TURN TO THE POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT
TURN OF EVENTS NEXT WEEK. BIG RIDGE WILL BUILD N INTO ALASKA BY
LATE WEEKEND... SUPPORTING A SIZEABLE BUILDUP OF ARCTIC AIR OVER W
CANADA AND DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS INTO SW CANADA AND NW CONUS.
FORMATION OF A 500-MB 575-580 HIGH OVER AK... WHICH HAS BEEN
ADVERTIZED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW... GENERALLY
DOES NOT TURN OUT WELL - FOR MOST OF THE LOWER 48 MUCH LESS THE S
PLAINS. GFS SFC-T PROGS FOR NEXT TUESDAY ARE UNPRECEDENTED AS FAR
AS THIS FORECASTER CAN RECALL... AND IF TAKEN LITERALLY WOULD
IMPLY THAT PARTS OF MT/WY WOULD STRUGGLE TO REACH HIGHS OF -30F
NEXT TUESDAY. THAT SEEMS A WEE BIT EXTREME... BUT IN ANY EVENT THE
PATTERN CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A TURN TOWARD SIGNIFICANT AND
POTENTIALLY SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IN SOME WAY SHAPE OR FORM - THE
STUFF NATIONAL HEADLINES ARE MADE OF - BY SOMETIME NEXT WEEK.

COLD AIR IS LIKELY TO BEGIN INVADING THE PACNW AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND AND ROLL SE THEREAFTER. AT
THIS TIME WE ARE LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF AND A FASTER INVASION OF
ARCTIC AIR INTO THE S PLAINS NEXT SUNDAY NIGHT. WHAT HAPPENS AFTER
THAT IS HARD TO SAY. BITTER COLD... SNOW AND/OR ICE... OR PERHAPS
ALL OF THE ABOVE. SUFFICE TO SAY NEXT WEEK LOOKS TROUBLESOME.