BOB: INVEST 90B

[Crostorm]

11/0830 UTC 7.1N 85.0E T2.0/2.0 90B -- Bay of Bengal

[Macrocane]

Is that an eye-like feature in the MW image? that would be pretty impressive.

[KWT]

Hmmm that microwave presentation is interesting for sure!

Anyway the GFS only has a weak reflection of this system and only slightly strengthens it beyond where it is now...

However models tend to be poor for this basin I've found generally...

[cycloneye]

11/1430 UTC 7.1N 84.2E T2.0/2.0 90B -- Bay of Bengal

[HURAKAN]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.1N 84.5E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.2N 83.7E, APPROXIMATELY 230NM EAST OF
COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS BUILDING
CONVECTION WITH SOME INDICATION OF CYCLONIC TURNING OVER LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. AN 110411Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS AN ELONGATED
CIRCULATION, POSSIBLY TWO CIRCULATION CENTERS, ORIENTED NORTHEAST-
SOUTHWEST WITH 25KT WINDS ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE AND MUCH WEAKER
RETURN WINDS ON THE NORTHERN SIDE. A SERIES OF 89GHZ MICROWAVE
PASSES FROM 110730Z TO 110830Z SHOW WHAT APPEARS TO BE SIGNIFICANT
BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER, BUT SURFACE ORGANIZATION AS
EVIDENT IN ASCAT AND AN 110824Z TRMM 36GHZ PASS DONT SUPPORT TIGHT
WRAPPING. THE SIGNATURE IS BEING ASSESSED AS HAVING A SIMILAR
PATTERN, BUT NOT REPRESENTING, TIGHTLY WRAPPED BANDING.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE DISTURBANCE IS SOUTH OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS, UNDER A DIFFLUENT UPPER LEVEL WITH MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.

[Grifforzer]

FQIN01 DEMS 111800
SHIPPING BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N),NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS.FROM 1800 UTC 11 JAN. 2011

PART.I:- NO STORM WARNING (.)

PART-II:- THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER SW BAY OF BENGAL PERSISTS(.)

[Grifforzer]

DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED: 12- 01-2011

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600UTC(.)

LOW PRESSURE AREA LIES OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL.

VORTEX OVER SW BAY CENTERED WITHIN HALF A DEGREE 0F LAT 07.0N/84.0E (.) INTENSITY T1.0 (.) ASSTD BKN LOW/MED CLOUDS WITH EMBDD MOD TO INT CONVTN OVER SW BAY SOUTH OF LAT 09.5N SRILANKA ADJ GULF OF MANNAR (.)

[senorpepr]

479
TXIO26 KNES 121549


A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (90B)

B. 12/1530Z

C. 7.1N

D. 83.8E

E. FIVE/MET-7

F. T1.0/1.5/W1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS...POORLY DEFINED LLC IS DIFFICULT TO DETECT IN CONVENTIONAL
IMAGERY AND IS LOCATED MORE THAN 1.25 DEGREES AWAY FROM DEEP CONVECTION
YIELDING A DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON MET.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...NEWHARD

[Grifforzer]

DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED: 13- 01-2011

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600UTC(.)

LOW PRESSURE AREA LIES OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL PERSISTS.


VORTEX OVER SW BAY CENTERED WITHIN HALF A DEGREE 0F LAT 07.5N/83.5E (.) INTENSITY T1.0 (.) ASSOCIATED BROKEN LOW/MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDED MODERATE TO INTENSE CONVECTION OVER SOUTHWEST BAY SOUTH OF LAT 10.5N WEST OF LONG 83.5E SRILANKA ADJOINING GULF OF MANNAR (.)

[Crostorm]

1 million affected by Sri Lanka floods

Colombo, Sri Lanka (CNN) -- Aid workers scrambled to help more than a million people in Sri Lanka suffering from massive flooding described by the government as the worst natural disaster since the 2004 tsunami.

At least 23 people have died and 36 others were injured in the destruction wrought by torrential rains, the Disaster Management Center said.

The Sri Lankan government and United Nations agencies were beefing up efforts to address increasingly dire humanitarian needs.

"We share the strong concern over the immediate requirements of over one million affected, especially the most vulnerable including children," said Neil Buhne, the U.N. humanitarian coordinator in Sri Lanka.

He said the global body was already looking at longer-term effects from damage to agriculture, infrastructure and housing. About 125,000 acres of the nation's staple rice crop has been destroyed, the government estimated.

The full extent of the damage cannot be assessed until flood waters in northern and central provinces recede, but Mahinda Amaraweera, minister of Disaster Management, told a news conference the losses were severe.

So far, he said, the government has allocated more than $1.5 million for recovery efforts and prompted the largest military response since the 2009 defeat of the Tamil Tigers. More than 28,000 troops, backed by transport helicopters and navy boats, were engaged in rescue and food delivery operations.

Many of the people in flood-affected areas are still recovering from the 25-year bloody conflict between the government and the rebel Tamil Tigers.

George Sigamoney, secretary-general of the Catholic charitable organization Caritas in Sri Lanka, said it has been difficult to access places affected by overflowing rivers, broken dams and drowned roads.

"Hundreds of farmers had started to cultivate their fields again after the war," he said on the Caritas website. "But these efforts are turning to be futile as the rains continue to lash the rice growing areas. A lot of houses from our shelter programs have been damaged in the floods as well."

The U.N. World Food Programme said it was "facing major breaks in food supplies." It said rations for people returning home after the war has been significantly reduced since October.

Sigamoney feared more misery lay ahead with shortages and exploding prices of basic food items.

"The poor will find it even more difficult to afford the most basic food items", he said.

http://edition.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/asiap ... l?hpt=Sbin