#78 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Jan 25, 2011 1:25 pm
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A15 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 25/1422 UTC 2011 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WILMA CENTRE 965HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR
22.4S 179.9W AT 251200 UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON HR GOES EIR
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. CYCLONE MOVING
WEST-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 25 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING. EXPECT
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 80 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE, OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN
20 MILES OF CENTRE, OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
AND OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
IN NORTHEAST QUADRANT WITHIN 200 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
CYCLONE HAS INTENSIFIED RAPIDLY OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. CONVECTION
REMAINS PERSISTENT FOR THE LAST 12 HOURS. PRIMARY BAND TIGHTLY
WRAPPED AROUND LLCC. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH BUT
RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION.
CIMSS INDICATES A MODERATELY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT ALONG THE FORECAST
PATH. SST AROUND 28C. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON EIR EYE PATTERN WITH
OW EYE EMBEDDED IN LG SURROUND, THUS YIELDS DT 5.5 MET=5.0 PT=5.5, FT
BASED ON MET, THUS T5.0/5.0/D1.5/24HRS. MOST GLOBAL MODELS MOVE
CYCLONE WILMA WEST-SOUTHWEST WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 260000 UTC 24.0S 176.7E MOV WSW AT 16 KT WITH 85
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 261200 UTC 25.2S 174.0E MOV WSW AT 15 KT WITH 85
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 270000 UTC 26.5S 171.9E MOV WSW AT 13 KT WITH 85
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 271200 UTC 28.1S 170.4E MOV SW AT 10 KT WITH 80 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC WILMA WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 252030 UTC.
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