RL3AO wrote:Looks like a hell of a storm for Chicago.
Yeah when I was there, I got hop happy over 8inches. I bet if I went there tommorow, it would be bust.
Moderator: S2k Moderators
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
331 PM EST MON JAN 31 2011
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND
NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AND WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF SNOW
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE HEAVIEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER.
THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE SNOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BEFORE THE NEXT MUCH STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE
SAME TRACK LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL SPREAD HEAVY
SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...WHICH MAY BRIEFLY CHANGE TO A WINTRY
MIX NEAR THE PENNSYLVANIA STATE LINE. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AND BRING AN END TO THE SNOW.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING PESKY LAKE
EFFECT FLURRIES CONSOLIDATING INTO A WEAK SINGLE BAND AND PUSHING
INTO THE GOLDEN HORSESHOE OF SOUTHERN ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BECOMES EASTERLY. THIS SHOULD STAY OFFSHORE OF
THE NY SHORELINE FROM THIS POINT FORWARD. OTHERWISE HIGH CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE AND THICKEN FROM WEST TO EAST AS
MID/UPPER LEVEL WARM ADVECTION RAMPS UP.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS
EVENING BEFORE QUICKLY RETREATING BACK INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO THE FIRST OF TWO SYSTEMS TO
IMPACT THE LOWER LAKES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS
FIRST WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MUCH WEAKER THAN THE SECOND...
BUT WILL STILL PRODUCE SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THE REGION.
WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL QUICKLY RAMP UP ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY DURING THE 06Z-09Z TIME FRAME. THIS WILL BE
SUPPORTED BY A WEAK LEAD SHORTWAVE AND MORE IMPORTANTLY A RAPIDLY
STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL JET...WHICH WILL BRIEFLY PLACE THE CWA IN
THE FAVORED UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE REGION OF A COUPLED JET STRUCTURE
WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 120KT QUEBEC JET...AND THE LEFT
EXIT REGION OF A 130+KT UPPER MIDWEST JET. ALSO OF NOTE...A BRIEF
PERIOD OF RATHER INTENSE LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS DEVELOPS ALONG
THE NY/PA BORDER FOR A FEW HOURS CENTERED ON 12Z TUE...WHICH MAY
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR A NARROW CORRIDOR OF HEAVY SNOW FOR A FEW HOURS
WITH 1 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES.
OUTSIDE OF THIS NARROW CORRIDOR OF LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...LIFT
FOR THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE MORE CLOSELY TIED TO THE UPPER
LEVEL JET COUPLET AND PASSAGE OF THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE...WHICH
WILL PRODUCE A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW FOR THE REST OF
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY. EXPECT SNOW
AMOUNTS TO RANGE FROM 1-3 INCHES FROM THE NIAGARA FRONTIER EAST
THROUGH ROCHESTER AND THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION...2-4 INCHES
ACROSS SOUTHERN ERIE/WYOMING/LIVINGSTON/ONTARIO...AND 4-6 INCHES
ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER...ALL OF THESE TOTALS FROM LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON TUESDAY.
WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...WILL HOIST A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
CHAUTAUQUA/CATTARAUGUS/ALLEGANY COUNTIES FROM 06Z-20Z TUESDAY. THERE
WAS A LOT OF DISCUSSION BOTH HERE IN THE OFFICE AND WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES ON HOW TO HANDLE THIS FIRST SNOWFALL COMBINED WITH THE
SECOND IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. WE FEEL...SINCE THERE WILL BE A
LARGE 6-8 HOUR BREAK OF LITTLE OR NO SNOW...THE BEST WAY TO HANDLE
THIS IS TWO HEADLINES WITH AN ADVISORY FOR THE FIRST PART AND
WARNINGS FOR THE SECOND...INSTEAD OF BLANKETING THE ENTIRE TIME
FRAME INCLUDING THE BREAK WITH A WARNING. TOUGH CALL FOR SURE ON HOW
TO HANDLE THE HEADLINES. THANKS FOR THE COORD/COLLAB FROM ALL THE
SURROUNDING OFFICES TODAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE ODDS THAT A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT WESTERN NEW
YORK DURING THIS TIME FRAME ARE VERY HIGH. HOWEVER THE STORM IS
STILL SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF US AND SLIGHT CHANGES IN
TRACK AND INTENSITY COULD HAVE BIG EFFECTS ON THE RESULTING SNOWFALL
FROM THE SYSTEM. ALL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A LARGE
SWATH OF SNOWFALL WILL OVERSPREAD WNY LATE TUE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING. VERY STRONG DYNAMICS SUPPORT THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM
AS MODELS SUGGEST A COUPLED UPPER LEVEL JET STRUCTURE THAT
CONTRIBUTES TO AN EXCEPTIONALLY DEEP LAYER OF VERTICAL MOTION. FOR
THAT REASON, WE ARE EVEN INTRODUCING THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSNOW IN
THE WEDNESDAY 09Z-12Z TIME FRAME ACROSS OUR REGION.
SNOWFALL RATES WILL INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE WEST AND ARE
LIKELY TO BECOME HEAVIEST RIGHT BEFORE WEDNESDAY MORNING RUSH HOUR
THROUGH MID MORNING THEN BEGIN TO TAPER OFF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THERE IS A SUGGESTION THAT THE SYSTEM COULD WRAP A BIT OF WARM AIR
INTO ITS CORE AROUND DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY AND WE HAVE REFLECTED THAT
POTENTIAL BY INTRODUCING A MIX OF SLEET FOR A PERIOD OF TIME NEAR
THE STATE LINE AROUND DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO, THE
TIMING OF ARRIVAL AND INTENSITY OF THE HEAVIER SNOW WILL BE ABOUT 3
HOURS LATER AND SNOWFALL WILL DROP OFF A BIT AS YOU GET NORTH OF
WATERTOWN.
THE SNOWFALL WILL BE COMPOUNDED BY STRONG NE WINDS (NOT TYPICAL FOR
OUR PART OF THE WORLD) GUSTING IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH CREATING NEAR
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW FROM BEFORE
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST
ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO.
THE STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO THE EAST COAST BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
IN ITS WAKE, WE COULD STILL SEE SOME WRAPAROUND SNOWFALL ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM IN THE WEST BEFORE MIDNIGHT AND IN THE EAST
FOR A FEW HOURS OVERNIGHT.
TOTAL SNOWFALL FROM THE SYSTEM AT THIS POINT LOOKS TO BE IN THE
RANGE OF 10 TO 15 INCHES FOR MOST OF THE AREA. EXCEPTIONS WILL BE
ALONG THE STATE LINE WHERE WE COULD SEE A COUPLE INCHES LESS IF THE
SLEET MIXES IN AND NORTH OF WATERTOWN WHERE THERE WILL NOT BE AS
MUCH MOISTURE TO BEGIN WITH.
BY THURSDAY CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE RAPIDLY AND WE WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME SUNSHINE FOR MOST OF THE REGION WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE THERE MAY STILL BE A FEW LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS UNDER COLD NW FLOW. SPEAKING OF COLD, TEMPERATURES ARE
GOING TO REMAIN QUITE RAW...LIKELY NOT MAKING IT OUT OF THE TEENS.
COMBINE THAT WITH BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS AND WIND CHILLS WILL BE
BELOW ZERO FOR MOST OF THE DAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION. WITH FRESH
SNOWPACK WE WILL GET QUITE COLD WITH TEMPERATURES HOVERING NEAR ZERO
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. ANY WIND WILL ONCE AGAIN CREATE A SIGNIFICANT
WIND CHILL.
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 5 guests