SIO: TROPICAL LOW (15U/14S)

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SIO: TROPICAL LOW (15U/14S)

#1 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Feb 07, 2011 2:20 pm

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Potential Cyclones:
A low is forecast to develop off the northwest Kimberley coast during Tuesday.
The low is expected to move towards the west southwest and may develop into a
tropical cyclone late Wednesday but more likely on Thursday, by which time it is
expected to be well away from the WA mainland.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone being in the Western Region:
Tuesday :Low
Wednesday :Moderate
Thursday :High
Last edited by HURAKAN on Fri Feb 11, 2011 9:19 am, edited 3 times in total.
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#2 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Feb 07, 2011 2:26 pm

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EURO ... 5 days

Expected to develop NW of Australia and move generally to the southwest ... not a direct threat to land
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#3 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Feb 08, 2011 8:27 am

Potential Cyclones:
A low is forecast to develop off the northwest Kimberley coast during Tuesday.
The low is expected to move towards the west southwest and may develop into a
tropical cyclone on Thursday or Friday, by which time it is expected to be well
away from the WA mainland.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region:
Wednesday :Low
Thursday :High
Friday :High
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Re: SIO: INVEST 95S

#4 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Feb 08, 2011 9:44 pm

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latest
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#5 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Feb 09, 2011 7:58 am

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#6 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Feb 09, 2011 1:57 pm

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Latest consensus
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#7 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Feb 09, 2011 1:58 pm

Potential Cyclones:
At midday WST, a weak low is located well to the north of the Pilbara coast near
15.5S 116.5E, about 580 kilometres north northwest of Port Hedland . The low is
expected to move towards the west southwest and may develop into a tropical
cyclone on Friday, by which time it is expected to be well away from the WA
mainland.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region:
Thursday :Low
Friday :High
Saturday :High
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#8 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Feb 09, 2011 1:59 pm

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latest
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#9 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Feb 09, 2011 1:59 pm

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.1S
115.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.7S 114.0E, APPROXIMATELY 260 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF BARROW ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 091100Z SSMIS IMAGE INDICATE DEEP
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AND CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS IMPROVING
OUTFLOW OVER THE SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH THE LLCC IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE NORTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS, AN UPPER LEVEL
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS INDICATES APPROXIMATELY 25 KNOTS OF VERTICAL
WINDSHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM. SATELLITE DERIVED SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION ARE APPROXIMATELY 30 DEGREES CELSIUS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
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#10 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Feb 09, 2011 11:35 pm

10/0232 UTC 18.0S 111.3E T1.0/1.0 96S -- Southeast Indian

25 knots
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#11 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Feb 09, 2011 11:36 pm

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#12 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Feb 10, 2011 12:51 am

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.7S
114.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.7S 112.2E, APPROXIMATELY 260 NM
NORTHWEST OF BARROW ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION CONSOLIDATING AND INCREASING AROUND A LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 091747Z AMSRE IMAGE SHOWS CURVED
BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC FROM THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM, WHERE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) IS ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS, IS BEING SHEARED. THE LLCC IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED NORTH OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE AND TRACKING
CLOSER TO THE RIDGE AXIS, WHERE VWS WILL EASE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A DEVELOPING POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND AN OVERALL
IMPROVEMENT IN OUTFLOW OVER THE SYSTEM. SATELLITE DERIVED SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION ARE APPROXIMATELY 30 DEGREES
CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
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#13 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Feb 10, 2011 8:28 am

Potential Cyclones:
At midday WST a weak low was located well to the northwest of the Pilbara coast
near 18.3S 110.9E. The low is expected to move towards the west southwest and
may develop into a tropical cyclone on Friday or Saturday, by which time it is
expected to be well away from the WA mainland.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region:
Friday :Moderate
Saturday :High
Sunday :Moderate
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#14 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Feb 10, 2011 9:00 am

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looking better
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#15 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Feb 10, 2011 11:59 am

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strong easterly shear ... anyone else having problems with NRL?
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#16 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Feb 10, 2011 3:57 pm

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Image

NRL is back as you can see! This system is close to being upgraded. I think if it was in the Atlantic it would already be a tropical depression or weak tropical storm.
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#17 Postby KWT » Thu Feb 10, 2011 4:08 pm

I suspect this would be a system in the Atlantic as well, shear is quite obvious but having seen these sorts of systems numerous times I'd say it was probably a bit stronger then people think.
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#18 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Feb 10, 2011 5:11 pm

10/1932 UTC 18.7S 107.7E T2.5/2.5 96S -- Southeast Indian

35 knots
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Re: SIO: INVEST 96S

#19 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Feb 10, 2011 6:33 pm

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Latest .. quite impressive taking into account the shear
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Re: SIO: INVEST 96S

#20 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Feb 10, 2011 8:16 pm

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SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTXS21 PGTW 102230
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 19.0S 108.4E TO 20.6S 101.5E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 101800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 19.1S 107.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 19.0S
106.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.8S 108.8E, APPROXIMATELY 360 NM
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA. MODERATELY SHEARED DEEP
CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED DOWNWIND OF A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
EASE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE NORTH. THE MOST RECENT ASCAT IMAGE (101448Z)
INDICATES THE LLCC HAS STRENGTHENED WHEN COMPARED WITH EARLIER
IMAGES. HOWEVER, THE LLCC IS STILL SOMEWHAT ELONGATED AND WINDS
AT THE CORE ARE GENERALLY LIGHTER THAN THOSE NEARING GALE FORCE
ON THE OUTER PERIPHERY. SEA SUFACE TEMPERATUES COOL DRAMATICALLY
BEYOND 20S LATITUDE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 112230Z.//
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