WPAC: Invest 91W

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HURAKAN
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WPAC: Invest 91W

#1 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Feb 23, 2011 9:42 am

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#2 Postby StormingB81 » Wed Feb 23, 2011 6:18 pm

Just south of Guam. Wonder if this will do anything. Still very early but who knows. History shows strong storms can come in Feb/March.
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Re: WPAC: Invest 91W

#3 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Feb 23, 2011 8:08 pm

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.1N 143.8E,
APPROXIMATELY 360 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YAP. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DISTINCT, ALBEIT BROAD, LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION FORMING ALONG THE
NORTHWEST QUADRANT. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS TO
THE SOUTH OF A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. NUMERICAL MODELS INCLUDING ECMWF, NOGAPS, AND GFS,
PROJECT WEAK DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY A RECENT ASCAT PASS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LLCC.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.


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#4 Postby Bobo2000 » Wed Feb 23, 2011 9:23 pm

Doesn't look like it, but we'll see what will happen.
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#5 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Feb 23, 2011 9:26 pm

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#6 Postby Chacor » Wed Feb 23, 2011 11:23 pm

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 06N 142 E WNW SLOWLY .
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#7 Postby StormingB81 » Thu Feb 24, 2011 7:44 am

it started to look good for a little bit but now looks like it isnt..but this is coming from the naked eye and I wouldnt call me good..lol and I didnt stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night
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#8 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Feb 24, 2011 8:18 pm

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looking much better organized
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Re: WPAC: Invest 91W

#9 Postby dexterlabio » Thu Feb 24, 2011 11:57 pm

Seems like there's a broad area of convection over that area. Wind shear still a bit unfriendly but is somehow decreasing for the past few hours. I'm not expecting that much from this invest but it would be interesting to see the development.
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#10 Postby StormingB81 » Fri Feb 25, 2011 1:46 am

Last year we already had 1 tropical depression but we know what a slllooooowww season tha twas..I think come summer time once la nina dies down it will pick up.
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#11 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Feb 25, 2011 8:45 am

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#12 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Feb 25, 2011 12:41 pm

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#13 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Feb 25, 2011 12:41 pm

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.4N
142.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.4N 141.3E, APPROXIMATELY 400 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION
FLARING OVER THE LLCC AND TO THE WEST. THE CONVECTION REMAINS
GENERALLY UNORGANIZED, BUT THERE IS SOME INDICATION OF CYCLONIC
TURNING IN THE DEEPER CONVECTION, INDICATING THAT THE CIRCULATION
MIGHT BE BUILDING INTO THE MID-LEVELS. THE SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED IN A
SHEAR LINE WITH STRONG EAST-NORTHEASTERLIES TO THE NORTH. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS TO THE SOUTH OF A RIDGE AXIS
IN AN AREA OF MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. NUMERICAL
MODELS INCLUDING ECMWF, NOGAPS, AND GFS, PROJECT WEAK DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
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#14 Postby Grifforzer » Fri Feb 25, 2011 5:14 pm

ABPW10 PGTW 251930
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/251930Z-260600ZFEB2011//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.4N
141.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.7N 135.0E, APPROXIMATELY 100 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF PALAU. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ASSOCIATED WITH
INCREASING DEEP CONVECTION. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES THE
LLCC IS STILL UNORGANIZED, ALTHOUGH THE MEAN SURFACE LEVEL PRESSURE
AT PALAU IS 1004 MB. THE SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED IN A SHEAR LINE WITH
STRONG EAST-NORTHEASTERLIES TO THE NORTH. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA
OF MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. DUE TO
THE INCREASED CONVECTION AND MARGINAL UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
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#15 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Fri Feb 25, 2011 9:20 pm

I'm watching this one closely, NOGAPS and GFS are both picking up on this going across Mindano, and of course I may be somewhere in the region at the time. Going to be interesting.
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Re: WPAC: Invest 91W

#16 Postby dexterlabio » Fri Feb 25, 2011 10:39 pm

We'll be heading to Maasin, Leyte in Visayas tomorrow, and I guess our mountain hiking will be affected by this. Seeing that thick convection, I think this will be a rainmaker over the southern portions of the Philippines. Bad news for the provinces in Visayas and Mindanao that experienced extreme rainfall over the past few months.
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#17 Postby Chacor » Sat Feb 26, 2011 5:25 am

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1004 HPA NEAR 06N 133E WEST 15 KT.
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#18 Postby Chacor » Sat Feb 26, 2011 7:58 am

TPPN10 PGTW 261238

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 91W (SW OF GUAM)

B. 26/1132Z

C. 7.0N

D. 130.0E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T1.0/1.0/S0.0/21HRS STT: S0.0/06HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 70/PBO ANMTN. TOO WEAK FOR DT. FT BASED ON PT. MET
AGREES

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


BRANDON
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