WPAC: MEARI [Falcon] - Remnants

[supercane]

Wish JTWC would be a little more conservative in declaring new invests or fold them into old areas when appropriate. Anyways, here it is:
.99WINVEST.15kts-1010mb-57N-1479E. (SW of Chuuk, well SSW of Guam)

98W was taken off of NRL.
NWS Guam does not mention this area explicitly, only noting the active monsoon trough:
000
ATPQ40 PGUM 161500
SIMGUM

SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
100 AM CHST FRI JUN 17 2011

WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC BETWEEN EQUATOR AND 25N FROM 130E TO 180.

A MONSOON TROUGH CURVES SOUTHEASTWARD FROM A CIRCULATION CENTERED
WEST OF KOROR NEAR 8N129E THROUGH ANOTHER CIRCULATION CENTERED
SOUTHEAST OF YAP AT 4N142E...THEN CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD OVER CHUUK
TO END NEAR 9N152E. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
OCCURRING MAINLY SOUTH OF KOROR BETWEEN 6N AND THE EQUATOR FROM 131E
TO 138E. FARTHER EAST...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF THE MARIANAS NEAR CHUUK BETWEEN 11N AND 5N
FROM 143E TO 153E.

CONVERGING WINDS NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH ARE COMBINING WITH
DIVERGENT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS TO THE SOUTH OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
CENTERED AT 20N134E TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WELL WEST OF THE MARIANAS BETWEEN 18N AND 10N FROM
130E TO 140E.

CONVERGING SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER POHNPEI BETWEEN 8N AND 1N FROM 153E TO 161E.

A TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE IS TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER KOSRAE BETWEEN 7N AND THE EQUATOR FROM 161E TO
172E.

&&

Models do try to develop something in the vicinity. 12Z model plot minus ECMWF and JMA:

[cycloneye]

What happened that they jumped from 97W to 99W?

[supercane]

Cycloneye, see the 2-post thread here on 98W, which was the area SE of Yap that NWS Guam was referring to. Quite simply, it went poof.

As for this new invest, ASCAT more suggestive of a "center" farther to the north.

[cycloneye]

Oh my,I missed the thread But anyway,is gone fron NRL.

[ManilaTC]

Cycloneye, see the 2-post thread here on 98W, which was the area SE of Yap that NWS Guam was referring to. Quite simply, it went poof.

As for this new invest, ASCAT more suggestive of a "center" farther to the north.

Hi supercane, where do you get this ASCAT images?
I browsed through the EUMETSAT site and it gives me dizzy spells

[supercane]

ASCAT image is from the OSI SAF ASCAT 25-km product viewer.

[supercane]

ABPW10 PGTW 180600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/180600Z-190600ZJUN2011//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/180151ZJUN2011//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 180000Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (SIX) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 13.6N 126.2E, APPROXIMATELY 305 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA,
PHILIPPINES, AND HAD TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT
30 KNOTS GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 180300) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 7.7N 142.8E,
APPROXIMATELY 300 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YAP. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SHALLOW CONVECTION ORGANIZING
AROUND A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 172339Z ASCAT PASS
CONFIRMS A CLOSED, ALBEIT WEAK, CIRCULATION. THE 180000Z STREAMLINE
ANALYSIS SHOWS WINDS HAVE BACKED TO THE WEST AT YAP (PTYA) AND THE
STATION IS REPORTING A 01 MB 24 HOUR PRESSURE FALL. THE UPPER LEVEL
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS REVEALS THE LLCC EXISTS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF AN
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE. EASTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR (VWS) IS
ESTIMATED AT 10 KNOTS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE 29-30 DEGREES
CELSIUS. THE LLCC IS MOVING TOWARDS A REGION OF INCREASING
DIFFLUENCE AND DECREASING VWS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

20110618.0127.terra.x.visqkm.99WINVEST.15kts-1010mb-77N-1428E.96pc.jpg

[StormingB81]

JMA has it as a LPA:

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 08N 141E ALMOST STATIONARY

[StormingB81]

HKO tries to develop something closer to the 72 hour mark but looks like this one may struggle to get there IMO

[supercane]

18Z JMA analysis:
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 08N 143E ALMOST STATIONARY.



ASCAT still shows a weak enlongated circulation:


Still unclassifiable by Dvorak:
TPPN11 PGTW 182124
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 99W (S OF GUAM)
B. 18/2032Z
C. 7.5N
D. 141.6E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 70/PBO ANMTN.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
HOUGH

From the latest NWS Guam discussion:
000
FXPQ60 PGUM 182042
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
642 AM CHST SUN JUN 19 2011

<snip>

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
IR IMAGERY SHOWS WARMING CLOUD TOPS NEAR CHUUK. THIS SUGGESTS
THAT THE CONVECTIVE BASED PRECIP IS TRANSITIONING TO STRATIFORM.
MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL AFFECT
CHUUK LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS CONVERGENT SOUTHEAST LOW-LEVEL
FLOW REMAINS FAIRLY PERSISTENT OVER THE AREA. INVEST AREA 99W HAS
BECOME A BETTER ORGANIZED CIRCULATION AND IS PROGGED TO MOVE WNW
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CURRENT FORECAST TREND STILL BRINGS THE
CENTER OF 99W BETWEEN YAP AND KOROR MONDAY NIGHT AND AS A RESULT
HAVE ADJUSTED WINDS AT THESE LOCATIONS ACCORDINGLY. SCATTERED
WORDING MAY BE NEEDED MONDAY FOR BOTH LOCATIONS IF 99W CONTINUES
TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. MODELS SHOW A LINGERING MONSOON
TROUGH OVER THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU AND YAP STATE FOR THE LONG TERM
SO BOTH LOCATIONS COULD SEE AN EXTENDED WET PATTERN THIS WEEK.

[euro6208]

It's been raining very hard the past 3 days on Guam. Right now, the clouds are very dark and expected to continue through tonight.

Ecmwf develops this into a large intensifying storm east of the Philippines then merges this system with another low in the SCS.

[supercane]

ABPW10 PGTW 190600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/190600Z-200600ZJUN2011//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/190151ZJUN2011//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 190000Z, TROPICAL STORM 06W (SIX) WAS LOCATED NEAR
16.9N 124.2E, APPROXIMATELY 230 NM NORTHEAST OF MANILA,
PHILIPPINES, AND HAD TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED
AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 190300) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.7N
142.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.5N 139.3E, APPROXIMATELY 200 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF YAP. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES INCREASING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ALTHOUGH CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION
HAS IMPROVED ONLY SLIGHTLY DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS, THE COVERAGE
AND AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY. THE LLCC
IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED DUE TO 15-20 KNOTS OF EASTERLY WIND SHEAR.
DESPITE THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), THE 190000Z PGTW UPPER LEVEL
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE LLCC EXISTS ON THE EQUATORWARD
SIDE OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE IN AN EXTREMELY DIFFLUENT AREA.
THE STREAMLINE ANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS THAT VWS INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY
DOWNSTREAM, SO THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE TO ORGANIZE AND
LIKELY DEVELOP AT A SLOWER RATE THAN WHAT IS TYPICAL FOR THAT
REGION. SURFACE REPORTS FROM YAP AND KOROR INDICATE SURFACE
PRESSURES THAT CORRESPOND TO 15-20 KNOTS. SEA WATER TEMPERATURES IN
THE REGION ARE 29-30 DEGREES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED
TO MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

[Typhoon10]

HKO has this developing stronger than 06

[dexterlabio]

ECMWF runs still show a large cyclone moving towards Northern Philippines. I was astonished by the large size of the system as depicted by the model runs. As of now, many areas in Luzon have been experiencing heavy rains since last midnight, especially here in Manila. If this system moves somewhere in Luzon, then this wet weather condition might continue until the coming weekend.

[supercane]

12Z JMA analysis:
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 09N 141E WNW SLOWLY.
NRL:
20110619.1601.mtsat2.x.ir1km_bw.99WINVEST.20kts-1007mb-86N-1361E.100pc.jpg
Latest IR:


NWS Guam's take:
000
FXPQ60 PGUM 190829 CCA
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
629 PM CHST SUN JUN 19 2011

CORRECTED TYPO IN DISCUSSION PARAGRAPH

.SYNOPSIS...
RADAR HAS SHOWN SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS GUAM AND ROTA ZONES AT
TIMES TODAY AND SATELLITE SHOWS MORE OF THE SAME FARTHER NORTH AND
UPSTREAM. SAT ALSO SHOWS A DISTURBANCE JUST NORTH OF CHUUK THAT IS
DRIFTING OUR WAY. INVEST 99W IS APPARENTLY NEAR 8N138E...BUT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS HARD TO DISCERN EVEN WITH ASCAT. A TUTT CELL
JUST NW OF NORTHERN CNMI IS STILL PROVIDING MODEST UPPER-LEVEL
DIVERGENCE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DIVERGENT UPPER WINDS SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AND RECENT TRENDS INDICATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE THIS EVENING. MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN
DEVELOPING 99W INTO A CIRCULATION AND MOVING IT TOWARD THE NW
WHILE THE TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE NORTH OF CHUUK MOVES IN BEHIND
99W AND ACROSS OUR LOCAL ZONES. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ABOUT HOW
QUICKLY 99W WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE NW. OTHERWISE...DRIER WEATHER IS
STILL EXPECTED TO FILTER IN FROM THE EAST BEGINNING ON TUESDAY.

&&

<snip>

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN END OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE PERIODIC CONVECTION OVER CHUUK
THRU TONIGHT. ON MONDAY...THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTING WESTWARD FROM
POHNPEI SHOULD GRADUALLY PROVIDE IMPROVEMENT. TOWARD MIDWEEK...THE
TRADE CONVERGENCE ZONE FROM THE EAST WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE
ISLAND WITH INCREASING WETNESS. JTWC INVEST AREA 99W IS TRACKING
W-NW JUST SOUTH OF YAP THIS EVENING. DEEP CONVECTION FLARING UP
BOTH WEST AND SOUTH OF ITS CENTER IS EXPECTED TO BRING INCLEMENT
WEATHER FOR KOROR THRU MONDAY EVENING AS 99W TRACKS JUST NORTH OF
THE ISLAND. PERIODS OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD PRODUCE UP TO 2 INCHES
OF RAINFALL BY MONDAY EVENING. THIS TRACK WILL ALSO LIFT THE
SOUTHEASTERN END OF THE MONSOON TROUGH OVER YAP BY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING WITH INCREASING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
DEPENDING ON THE FUTURE INTENSITY OF 99W OVER THE NORTHERN
PHILIPPINE SEA...A BAND OF CONVERGENT SOUTH WINDS MIGHT FORM
SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM AND PROLONG UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR BOTH
LOCATIONS INTO MIDWEEK.

<snip>

Latest ASCAT missed this directly but still implies broad enlongated cyclonic circulation.

[StormingB81]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/index.html

NOAA says It is a fair chance of developement. We shall see...I say it wouldnt be a far fetch to say we could have a TCFA by tonight...

[ManilaTC]

This Windsat scan gives a 25kt wind barb near Palau
I expect a TCFA soon.

[supercane]

20110620.0101.mtsat2.x.vis1km_high.99WINVEST.20kts-1007mb-108N-1355E.100pc.jpg


First satellite bulletin with a Dvorak estimate in from JTWC.
TPPN11 PGTW 200031
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 99W (NE OF PALAU)
B. 19/2332Z
C. 9.8N
D. 135.7E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T1.0/1.0/INIT OBS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CONVECTIVE WRAP OF .20 ON LOG10
SPIRAL YIELDS DT OF 1.0. PT AGREES. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
HOUGH

The few barbs showing 25kt in that Windsat scan do not appear representative enough to me to warrant an upgrade. We'll have to see if ASCAT catches it. However, I'll agree that overall the system continues to organize.

[StormingB81]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs ... 18/37.html

Early Models have it coming around Okinawa...

[StormingB81]

From NWS Guam:

THE CIRCULATION THAT IS NOW TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE ISLANDS IS PREDICTED TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MODELS ARE STILL NOT SET ON WHAT STRENGTH THE SYSTEM WILL GROW TO BUT AT ANY RATE IT WILL BE OUT OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA TO THE WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE EAST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE MARIANAS. THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP SHOWERS ISOLATED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.