WPAC: MEARI [Falcon] - Remnants

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RobWESTPACWX
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#241 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Fri Jun 24, 2011 2:31 am

Thanks for sharing that information Clark, Tornadoes are common in the outer rain bands of tropical systems and are often dangerous becuase there fast moving and usually covered by rain, I'm glad the damage looks minimal though.

From what I've seen up to 11 deaths in the PI now, ten fishermen and one women being swept away by flooding.
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Re: WPAC: MEARI [Falcon] - Tropical Storm

#242 Postby Infdidoll » Fri Jun 24, 2011 2:47 am

Doubtful the military will raise the TCOR level here. We've had storms the equivalent of Cat 4 & 5 blow closer by to us and they didn't raise the alert level. Windy out there today, though! Husband said they are securing all the aircraft for the weekend to prepare for 70-80 kt winds. I bet we'll get some nasty thunderstorms and rain over the next few days.

This storm has had one heck of a time getting organized! Still doesn't look defined.
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Re: WPAC: MEARI [Falcon] - Tropical Storm

#243 Postby Infdidoll » Fri Jun 24, 2011 2:50 am

ClarkEligue wrote:There has been a reported tornado in the Quezon City area just now according to GMA News TV, ripping roofs off houses and felling trees, tarpaulin billboards and GI sheets have been hanging off high tension wires, sparking fire fears as electricity has not been cutoff.


Scary stuff! :eek: I hope the rest of the night goes uneventfully there...Those storms on the southwest side look pretty nasty!
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#244 Postby StormingB81 » Fri Jun 24, 2011 3:14 am

Storm has gone north and NE..something OKinawa may have to look out for! every wobbl
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#245 Postby KWT » Fri Jun 24, 2011 3:41 am

Still looks like a large mass, don't think its ever going to be able to lose that look totally even if it does at some point finally finally organise further.
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Re:

#246 Postby Typhoon Hunter » Fri Jun 24, 2011 4:11 am

StormingB81 wrote:Storm has gone north and NE..something OKinawa may have to look out for! every wobbl


NE? Where are you getting that information from? JMA are updating hourly and have it North at 13kts. If you want to experience the storm get on a flight to Ishigaki!
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#247 Postby phwxenthusiast » Fri Jun 24, 2011 4:11 am

Video update, Rob is not gonna be making the videos temporarily...

Ran out of time if you noticed haha, need those comments please, since i'll be making this for some time...

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7HDq3BB-WVA[/youtube]
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#248 Postby oaba09 » Fri Jun 24, 2011 4:26 am

Image

WTPN32 PGTW 240900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 07W (MEARI) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240600Z --- NEAR 21.8N 125.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 355 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
250 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.8N 125.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 24.8N 124.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
215 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 28.0N 124.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 31.4N 124.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 35.0N 125.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 41.4N 129.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
240900Z POSITION NEAR 22.6N 125.4E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (MEARI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AIR BASE, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT
12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLCC)
IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED AND ELONGATED. DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS
CONVECTION HAS INTENSIFIED AND CONSOLIDATED CLOSER TO THE LLCC, YET
THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO HAVE AN EXPANSIVE, MONSOON DEPRESSION-LIKE
SIGNATURE, WITH SMALL-SCALE VORTICES ROTATING AROUND AND THEN
MERGING WITH THE LLCC. A 240054Z ASCAT PASS PROVIDES AN EXCELLENT
DEPICTION OF THE BREADTH OF THE SYSTEM, AND THE 35 KNOT RADII HAVE
BEEN ADJUSTED OUTWARDS YET AGAIN. A 232222Z SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS
REVEALS EXTENSIVE DEEP CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE, WHEREAS DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT IS
SPOTTY. THE 37GHZ SLICE OF THE SAME IMAGE IN TANDEM WITH 1 KM VISUAL
IMAGERY SHOWS A DEARTH OF CLOUD COVER OVER THE WESTERN QUADRANT.
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOPS HINT AT SOME DRY AIR FEEDING INTO THE
SYSTEM CENTER FROM THE NORTHWEST, BUT THE CLEAR POCKET IS TOO FAR
REMOVED FROM ANY AIR MASS DISCONTINUITY TO ATTRIBUTE THE CLEARING TO
DRY AIR. IT IS MORE LIKELY AN EFFECT OF THE SUBSIDENT UPPER
ATMOSPHERE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. THE SUBSIDENCE IS
REPRESENTED CLEARLY ON WATER VAPOR ANIMATION, WHICH SHOWS
NORTHWESTERLIES SURGING OVER THE TAIWAN STRAIT AND TURNING
CYCLONICALLY SOUTH OF TAIWAN, THE BEGINNINGS OF YET ANOTHER UPPER
LOW. EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS VIGOROUS AND OUTFLOW TO THE
NORTHEAST HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY ASSESSMENT IS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE ASCAT PASS,
AS THE LACK OF CORE CONVECTION IS MAKING DVORAK ESTIMATES LESS
REPRESENTATIVE. CURRENTLY TS 07W IS UNDER ONLY 5 TO 10 KNOTS OF
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW 15
KNOTS UNTIL THE STORM ROUNDS THE RIDGE NEAR 30N. THIS WILL ALLOW TS
07W TO INTENSIFY TO MARGINAL TYPHOON STRENGTH AS IT ROUNDS THE CREST
OF THE RIDGE. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN SPINE OF A
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE PHILIPPINE SEA TO
SOUTHERN JAPAN BETWEEN 130E AND 135E. ONCE MEARI CRESTS THE RIDGE,
THE STORM WILL ENCOUNTER A SHARP DROP IN SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AND BEGIN WEAKENING. THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION PROCESS WILL BEGIN
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE YELLOW SEA, AND COMPLETE BEFORE IT
FINISHES CROSSING THE KOREAN PENINSULA. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO
TIGHTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE EXTENDED TRACK, WITH ALL CONSENSUS
MEMBERS TRACKING THE SYSTEM INTO THE YELLOW SEA. THERE REMAINS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH
OR SOUTH OF SEOUL, BUT THE MAJORITY OF MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
SYSTEM WILL GO NORTH OF SEOUL. AT THIS JUNCTURE, ONLY THE JAPANESE
MODEL TRACKS THE STORM THROUGH SOUTH KOREA. THROUGH TAU 48, THERE IS
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 241500Z,
242100Z, 250300Z AND 250900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 06W (HAIMA)
WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
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Re: Re:

#249 Postby StormingB81 » Fri Jun 24, 2011 5:03 am

Typhoon Hunter wrote:
StormingB81 wrote:Storm has gone north and NE..something OKinawa may have to look out for! every wobbl


NE? Where are you getting that information from? JMA are updating hourly and have it North at 13kts. If you want to experience the storm get on a flight to Ishigaki!



I looked at it wrong I saw it go up and to the right and I thought that was NE not north..my appologies...
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#250 Postby oaba09 » Fri Jun 24, 2011 5:20 am

Water starting to spill over in marikina:

Image
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#251 Postby Chacor » Fri Jun 24, 2011 5:24 am

Upgraded.

WTPQ21 RJTD 240900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1105 MEARI (1105) UPGRADED FROM TS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 240900UTC 22.3N 125.0E FAIR
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 400NM SOUTHEAST 250NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 250900UTC 28.9N 123.9E 85NM 70%
MOVE N 17KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
45HF 260600UTC 33.7N 123.9E 180NM 70%
MOVE N 15KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
69HF 270600UTC 38.8N 126.5E 250NM 70%
MOVE NNE 14KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =
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#252 Postby StormingB81 » Fri Jun 24, 2011 5:48 am

You know if this continues on the same track Okinawa will got 50 knot winds or greater..wonder about the TCCOR's now...
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#253 Postby oaba09 » Fri Jun 24, 2011 7:02 am

According to PAGASA, this kind of weather will continue up to tomorrow..They expect the weather to improve on Sunday...
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#254 Postby StormingB81 » Fri Jun 24, 2011 7:32 am

By the way it is now a severe tropical storm and 5 knots from being a typhoon!
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#255 Postby Chacor » Fri Jun 24, 2011 8:18 am

WTPQ21 RJTD 241200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1105 MEARI (1105)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 241200UTC 24.0N 124.8E FAIR
MOVE N 17KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 120NM
30KT 400NM SOUTHEAST 250NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 251200UTC 30.1N 124.4E 85NM 70%
MOVE N 18KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 261200UTC 35.5N 124.7E 180NM 70%
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 271200UTC 41.1N 127.5E 250NM 70%
MOVE NNE 15KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =
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#256 Postby StormingB81 » Fri Jun 24, 2011 8:24 am

Image

Okinawa is right near that 50 knot circle..Could we go from TCCOR 4 to TCCOR 1E if we do get winds over 50 knots sustained?
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#257 Postby supercane » Fri Jun 24, 2011 8:58 am

WTPN32 PGTW 241500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 07W (MEARI) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241200Z --- NEAR 23.1N 125.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.1N 125.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 26.1N 124.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 29.5N 124.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 33.4N 125.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 36.7N 125.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 43.0N 129.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
241500Z POSITION NEAR 23.9N 125.0E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (MEARI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM
SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AIR BASE, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
241200Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 242100Z, 250300Z, 250900Z AND
251500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 06W (HAIMA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
Image
WDPN32 PGTW 241500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 07W (MEARI)//
/WARNING NR 12//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (MEARI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM
SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AIR BASE, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS AN EXPANSIVE, PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A SERIES OF VORTICES ROTATING CYCLONICALLY INTO THE CENTER
WHILE FILLING GIVE THE SYSTEM A MONSOON DEPRESSION-LIKE SIGNATURE. A
240748 SSMI IMAGE SHOWS SPOTTY DEEP CONVECTION WITH ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL BANDING DISPLACED OUTWARD FROM THE LLCC. A 240926Z CORIOLIS
PASS SHOWS THICK LOW LEVEL BANDING WRAPPING AROUND A BROAD,
RELATIVELY CLEAR CENTER. DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS CONVECTION HAS
INTENSIFIED OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM. A 240054Z ASCAT
IMAGE REVEALS THE EXPANSIVE NATURE OF THE WIND FIELDS, BUT THE
240929Z WINDSAT PASS IMPLIES THAT THE WIND FIELDS HAVE BEGUN
CONTRACTING SINCE THAT TIME. KADENA, FUTENMA, AND NAHA OKINAWA ARE
ALREADY REPORTING SUSTAINED SOUTHEASTERLIES IN EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS
WITH CONSISTENT GUSTS INTO THE THIRTIES. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DIGGING SOUTH OF TAIWAN IS PRODUCING A STRONG IMPINGEMENT ON OUTFLOW
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM, WITH THE SUBSIDENCE REFLECTED
IN THE LACK OF CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN QUADRANT. THIS LACK OF
CLOUD COVER IS ALSO CONFIRMED ON THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY. EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW REMAINS VIGOROUS AND OUTFLOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT
HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY ASSESSMENT IS BASED PRIMARILY ON A 240929Z WINDSAT IMAGE
AND OBSERVATIONS FROM THE SOUTHERN RYUKUS, AS THE BROAD LLCC AND
LACK OF CORE CONVECTION ARE MAKING DVORAK ESTIMATES LESS
REPRESENTATIVE OF TRUE INTENSITY. A STATION 90 NM NORTH OF THE LLCC,
SHIMOJI SHIMA, REPORTED 67 KNOTS BUT THE STATION IS UNDERNEATH HEAVY
CONVECTION. CURRENTLY TS 07W IS UNDER ONLY 5 TO 10 KNOTS OF VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE
BONIN HIGH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. TS 07W WILL CONTINUE ITS NORTHERLY TRAJECTORY ALONG THE
WESTERN FLANK OF THE BONIN HIGH, WHICH IS CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR
30N 145E AND RETROGRADING SOUTHWEST. THE SOUTHWESTWARD DRIFT OF THE
HIGH WILL FORCE THE LLCC TO REMAIN WEST OF THE 125TH LONGITUDE
THROUGHOUT ITS TRACK. GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE,
HOWEVER, WILL EXPAND AS FAR EASTWARD AS THE RYUKUS. VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR WILL STAY BELOW 20 KNOTS UNTIL THE STORM MOVES INTO THE
CENTRAL YELLOW SEA. THE WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL ALLOW TS 07W TO INTENSIFY TO MARGINAL
TYPHOON STRENGTH AS IT CRESTS THE RIDGE BETWEEN TAU 18 AND 24. ONCE
MEARI CRESTS THE RIDGE, THE STORM WILL ENCOUNTER A SHARP DROP IN SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND A MILD INCREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
BEGIN WEAKENING. THICKNESS PROGS FROM SEVERAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS
INDICATE THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION PROCESS WILL BEGIN NORTH OF
35N, NEAR TAU 48. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO SUBSTANTIALLY BETTER
AGREEMENT REGARDING TRACK BEYOND TAU 48. ALL CONSENSUS MEMBERS ARE
NOW FORECASTING A TRACK POLEWARD OF SEOUL, KOREA, WITH TS 072
UNDERGOING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT TRACKS OVER NORTH KOREA.
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK CROSSES FROM WEST OF CONSENSUS TO EAST OF
AND FASTER THAN CONSENSUS ONCE XTT BEGINS. THIS IS DUE TO AN
OBSERVED AND DOCUMENTED TENDENCY FOR CONSENSUS TO BE SLOW AND LEFT
OF ACTUAL TRACK IN RECURVATURE AND XTT SCENARIOS.//
NNNN
Image

TPPN11 PGTW 241153
A. TROPICAL STORM 07W (MEARI)
B. 24/1132Z
C. 23.3N
D. 125.5E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T2.5/2.5/S0.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/06HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .40 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS
A 2.5 DT. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
24/0907Z 22.3N 125.3E TRMM
24/0926Z 22.4N 125.4E WIND
HATHAWAY
Area radar:
Image
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StormingB81
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#258 Postby StormingB81 » Fri Jun 24, 2011 9:02 am

I doubt we will see 50 knot winds..it looked close earlier but now it looks like it wont happend
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#259 Postby KWT » Fri Jun 24, 2011 10:41 am

Thats a bit better in terms of organisation, finally developing something akin to a CDO now.

Still a somewhat odd looking system its got to be said, hardly a looker!
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Re: WPAC: MEARI [Falcon] - Tropical Storm

#260 Postby P.K. » Fri Jun 24, 2011 2:44 pm

Can someone update the thread title please.

WTPQ21 RJTD 241800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1105 MEARI (1105)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 241800UTC 26.3N 124.0E FAIR
MOVE N 21KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 180NM EAST 120NM WEST
30KT 400NM SOUTHEAST 210NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 251800UTC 32.7N 124.2E 85NM 70%
MOVE N 16KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 261800UTC 37.7N 124.2E 180NM 70%
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 271800UTC 43.9N 127.0E 250NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =
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