WPAC: TOKAGE - Tropical Depression (09W, Hanna)

[P.K.]

06Z:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 14N 133E ALMOST STATIONARY

[HURAKAN]

Latest infrared

[HURAKAN]

WTPN21 PGTW 140600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 180 NM RADIUS OF 14.1N 133.0E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 17 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 140600Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 133.0E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASED
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER AN INCREASINGLY MORE ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. A 140426Z AMSU IMAGE AND A 132321Z SSMIS IMAGE
SHOW SPIRAL LOW LEVEL BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC WITH A MAJORITY
OF THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN BANDS. A 140040Z
PARTIAL ASCAT PASS SHOWS 20 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC FROM
THE NORTHWEST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS
LOCATED IN A REGION OF HIGHLY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (<15 KNOTS). CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY IS TEMPORARILY HINDERED BY A TUTT CELL TO THE
NORTH, WHICH IS EVIDENT IN ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. DUE TO INCREASED
CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC AND A HIGHLY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
150600Z.//
NNNN

[rdhdstpchld]

Alright you smart people (and I say that with all respect; I'm continually amazed to just follow and watch you all debate and inform!) -- what's the prediction with this one?

[supercane]

Hurakan, that's yesterday's TCFA (14/06Z). If JTWC does not upgrade at 03Z, they would have to reissue or cancel the TCFA by 15/06Z.

This is very exposed, and outflow from Ma-On isn't helping:

TPPN12 PGTW 150037
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 92W (EAST OF PHILIPPINES)
B. 14/2332Z
C. 14.1N
D. 132.6E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/06HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 19A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. SHEAR TECHNIQUE (71 NM)
YIELDED AT 1.5 DT. PT AND MET ARE 1.0. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
QUAST

[euro6208]

000
WWPQ80 PGUM 140913
SPSPQ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
713 PM CHST THU JUL 14 2011

PMZ161-150800-
KOROR PALAU-
713 PM CHST THU JUL 14 2011

...A DEVELOPING TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED NORTHWEST OF PALAU...

AT 400 PM CHST...A DEVELOPING TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WAS CENTERED NEAR
LATITUDE 14.1 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 133.0 DEGREES EAST. THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AND BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTHWEST OF KOROR
AND YAP THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS STRONG RIDGING TO THE SOUTH OF THIS
SYSTEM MAINTAINS RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER OVER KOROR AND YAP.

NORTHWEST SWELL GENERATED BY THIS SYSTEM COULD CAUSE SURF TO BUILD
ON RESPECTIVE EXPOSURES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. NORTH SWELL FROM
TYPHOON MA-ON...CURRENTLY NEAR THE FAR NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS...
COULD COMBINE WITH THE SWELL GENERATED BY THIS TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
AND CAUSE COMBINED SEAS TO RISE SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE WEEKEND. SEAS
SHOULD REMAIN BETWEEN 5 AND 7 FEET DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

RESIDENTS AND MARINERS IN THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU AND YAP STATE ARE
ADVISED TO FOLLOW THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM
AND ISSUE UPDATES AS NEEDED.

$$

WILLIAMS/MCELROY

[supercane]

00Z JMA analysis:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 14N 133E ALMOST STATIONARY.

From earlier NWS Guam AFD:
.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
JTWC INVEST AREA 92W STILL REMAINS THE SUBJECT OF A TC FORMATION
ALERT. 92W IS STILL CENTERED NEAR 14N133E...NNW OF KOROR. MODEL
CONSENSUS SHOWS THE CIRCULATION STAYING IN PLACE WITH POSSIBLY A
LITTLE MORE DEVELOPMENT BEFORE BEING ENGULFED INTO THE LARGER
CIRCULATION OF TY MA-ON. <snip>



TXPQ27 KNES 150316
TCSWNP
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (92W)
B. 15/0232Z
C. 14.1N
D. 132.8E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T1.0/1.5/S0.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...DT=1.0 BASED ON SHEAR PATTERN WITH LOW LEVEL CENTER 1.5
DEGREES FROM DEEPEST CONVECTION. PT=1.0. MET=1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...SCHWARTZ

[supercane]

Surprise! JMA upgrades this up to TS Tokage, probably based on the ASCAT image above:
WTPQ21 RJTD 150300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1107 TOKAGE (1107) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 150300UTC 14.1N 132.9E FAIR
MOVE ESE SLOWLY
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 130NM SOUTH 70NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 160300UTC 14.5N 133.5E 85NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

[ManilaTC]

Its a TS and PAGASA and JTWC are NOT WARNING on it nyahahaha

Is it a first?

[StormingB81]

My guess is here shortly it will get sucked into Ma-on I am wondering if that is why..

[HURAKAN]

latest visible ... very strong shear

[phwxenthusiast]

about to be upgraded into a TD by JTWC based on Dvorak and NRLMRY...

[P.K.]

WTPQ21 RJTD 150600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1107 TOKAGE (1107)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 150600UTC 14.1N 133.2E FAIR
MOVE E SLOWLY
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 130NM SOUTH 70NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 160600UTC 14.0N 134.0E 85NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 170600UTC 13.5N 134.5E 160NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

[Chacor]

Its a TS and PAGASA and JTWC are NOT WARNING on it nyahahaha

Is it a first?

Nope, quite a few times in recent years JMA has named storms that never got beyond INVEST stage from the JTWC.

[supercane]

JTWC upgraded to TD:

WTPN32 PGTW 150900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/140551Z JUL 11//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150600Z --- NEAR 14.0N 133.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 14.0N 133.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 15.1N 136.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 18.1N 138.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 23.0N 139.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
150900Z POSITION NEAR 14.3N 133.9E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 09W (TOKAGE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 410 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PALAU, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH CONVECTION
DISPLACED APPROXIMATELY 60 NM TO THE SOUTHWEST. A 150722Z SSMI
MICROWAVE PASS CONFIRMS THE EXPOSED LLCC POSITION AND THE DISPLACED
CONVECTION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM 25 TO 30 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD, AS WELL AS A
150021Z ASCAT PASS DEPICTING A WELL-DEFINED LLCC WITH 25 TO 30 KNOT
WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY AND WEAKER 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. TD 09W IS CURRENTLY UNDERGOING DIRECT
CYCLONE INTERACTION WITH 08W AND IS EXPECTED TO SPEED UP AND BEGIN
TRACKING INCREASINGLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED
INTO TY 08W NEAR TAU 36. TD TOKAGE IS NOT FORECAST TO INTENSIFY, AS
OUTFLOW FROM TY 08W IS ALREADY INHIBITING CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING
OVER THE CENTER. AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH THIS MERGER SCENARIO. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND
CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 140551Z JUL 11 TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 140600). NEXT WARNINGS AT 151500Z,
152100Z, 160300Z AND 160900Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 08W (MA-ON) WARNINGS
(WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

PAGASA calling this Hanna:

WTPH RPMM 150600
TTT WARNING 01

AT 0600 15 JULY TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE FOUR POINT ZERO NORTH ONE THREE THREE POINT ZERO EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEAST AT ZERO SIX METERS PER SECOND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN ONE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE ONE ZERO ZERO ZERO HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS ONE FIVE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 160600 ONE SEVEN POINT SIX NORTH ONE THREE FIVE POINT SIX EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN DEPRESSION AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD
WEATHER MANILA

[Chacor]

Its a TS and PAGASA and JTWC are NOT WARNING on it nyahahaha

Is it a first?

Nope, quite a few times in recent years JMA has named storms that never got beyond INVEST stage from the JTWC.

That being said, it is extremely rare for the JMA to upgrade a minor TD (mentioned only in the high seas bulletin and without an accompanying "warning") directly to a TS, and likewise rare for them to do so at a non-synoptic hour (in this case 03z).

[Chacor]

With Tokage's formation, we remain ahead of average. Today's long-term average is 6.0 storms.

[Chacor]

WTPQ21 RJTD 151200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1107 TOKAGE (1107)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 151200UTC 13.9N 134.1E FAIR
MOVE E 07KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 130NM SOUTH 70NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 161200UTC 13.6N 135.1E 85NM 70%
MOVE ESE SLOWLY
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 171200UTC 13.3N 135.8E 160NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

[Hurricanehink]

With Tokage's formation, we remain ahead of average. Today's long-term average is 6.0 storms.

Perhaps most interesting is that last year only had two storms by this date.

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ32 PGUM 150912
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TOKAGE (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092011
800 PM CHST FRI JUL 15 2011

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION TOKAGE FORMS NORTHWEST OF YAP...

NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.

AT 700 PM CHST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TOKAGE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 133.9 DEGREES EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT 435 MILES NORTHWEST OF YAP
485 MILES NORTH OF KOROR PALAU
730 MILES WEST OF GUAM AND
790 MILES WEST OF SAIPAN.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TOKAGE IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST AT 12 MPH. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 MPH. LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS
ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

REPEATING THE 700 PM POSITION...14.3 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND
133.9 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST AT 12 MPH WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 MPH.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 AM ON SATURDAY MORNING.

$$

MCELROY