ATL: CINDY - Remnants - Discussion

[Florida1118]

Its what makes weather fun The guessing.

[cycloneye]

:uarrow: Its what makes weather fun The guessing.

And that is why tropical weather is facinating to follow as it changes constantly. There is that saying "never say never in the tropics."

[JTE50]

:uarrow: Its what makes weather fun The guessing.

And that is why tropical weather is facinating to follow as they change constantly. There is that saying "never say never in the tropics."

Indeed. I wonder how you would forecast a track like Elena in 1985 which targeted near Pensacola, turned toward Cedar Key, where it stalled and did a loop, then skirted the coast enroute to hitting Biloxi, MS. Weather is fascinating and just when you think you have it figured out - you realized you haven't seen everything yet and never will.

[AHS2011]

Does anyone know if we are at the same pace of the 2005 season? But obviously less intense.

[HURAKAN]

Does anyone know if we are at the same pace of the 2005 season? But obviously less intense.

No, by this time we already had 5

[CrazyC83]

Does anyone know if we are at the same pace of the 2005 season? But obviously less intense.

At this point in 2005, we were up to Emily (Franklin formed July 21 and Gert July 23).

For other recent comparisons:

2010: 2/1/0
2009: 0/0/0 (August 11)
2008: 4/2/1
2007: 2/0/0
2006: 3/0/0
2005: 5/3/2
2004: 0/0/0 (July 31)
2003: 4/2/0
2002: 1/0/0
2001: 1/0/0
2000: 0/0/0 (August 4)
1999: 1/0/0
1998: 0/0/0 (July 27)
1997: 5/2/0
1996: 2/1/1
1995: 3/1/0

[NDG]

Glad they finally decided to upgrade her, she could had been a TD as early as this morning.

[Cookie]

:uarrow: Its what makes weather fun The guessing.

And that is why tropical weather is facinating to follow as they change constantly. There is that saying "never say never in the tropics."

Indeed. I wonder how you would forecast a track like Elena in 1985 which targeted near Pensacola, turned toward Cedar Key, where it stalled and did a loop, then skirted the coast enroute to hitting Biloxi, MS. Weather is fascinating and just when you think you have it figured out - you realized you haven't seen everything yet and never will.

Ahh thats what I've termed a drunken hurricane, you can never be sure what they will do next!

[KWT]

It was somewhat surprising we have gotten Cindy, its alot like Beryl and the Un-named storm from 2006, both developed from the same frontal system.

[CrazyC83]

This season is developing a 2006-ish feel in my mind...at least so far...

[KWT]

The MASSIVE difference is the ENSO state and the fact that we have very high SSt's and very low background pressure (both factors just below 05/10 levels!)

Anyway Cindy is a cool, if somewhat short lived July system and at the very least is another name off the list.

[cheezyWXguy]

This season is developing a 2006-ish feel in my mind...at least so far...

Well I guess you could say that since were tied to date with that season. But the main difference is that we're bordering between neutral and la nina conditions, while that year we were in a solid el nino, if i remember correctly.

[Swimdude]

It's weird seeing "Cindy" again. I remember when Cindy went through Louisiana in 2005... Plenty of relatives in the Lafayette/New Orleans area. They talk about Cindy this way: "We went to bed expecting a moderate tropical storm and woke up to a fairly intense, strengthening hurricane." Of course Katrina overshadowed Cindy a few months later.

[HurrMark]

Here is an interesting factoid...assuming Bret and Cindy don't do something completely unexpected and turn back towards the US (you probably have a better chance winning the lottery and getting struck by lightning the same day), we would have gone 20 consecutive storms, going back to last year, without one making landfall the US mainland (Hermine did impact Texas, but technically it was a Mexican landfall). The last one to do so was Bonnie. I wonder if this is a record...anyone have an idea?

[Extratropical94]

Looking through the Hurdat files, I can't find a gap of tropical silence big enough to contain 20 harmless storms.
Some years like 1990 had no landfall and 14 storms but some storms roared onto the US coastline in late 89 and early 91 limiting this "streak".

[cycloneye]

AL, 03, 2011072100, , BEST, 0, 356N, 525W, 35, 1004, TS

[HURAKAN]

20/2345 UTC 35.5N 52.7W T2.0/2.0 CINDY

tropical this time

[plasticup]

Here is an interesting factoid...assuming Bret and Cindy don't do something completely unexpected and turn back towards the US (you probably have a better chance winning the lottery and getting struck by lightning the same day), we would have gone 20 consecutive storms, going back to last year, without one making landfall the US mainland (Hermine did impact Texas, but technically it was a Mexican landfall). The last one to do so was Bonnie. I wonder if this is a record...anyone have an idea?

I have some friends who work in reinsurance and they are having a really hard time. When you get a big stretch like this without serious impacts people start to wonder why they are even buying insurance. They forget so quickly and the market gets soft...

[Zampanò]

Here is an interesting factoid...assuming Bret and Cindy don't do something completely unexpected and turn back towards the US (you probably have a better chance winning the lottery and getting struck by lightning the same day), we would have gone 20 consecutive storms, going back to last year, without one making landfall the US mainland (Hermine did impact Texas, but technically it was a Mexican landfall). The last one to do so was Bonnie. I wonder if this is a record...anyone have an idea?

I have some friends who work in reinsurance and they are having a really hard time. When you get a big stretch like this without serious impacts people start to wonder why they are even buying insurance. They forget so quickly and the market gets soft...

It's astonishing how firmly rooted some are in their complacency, no matter how many times it is demonstrated that yes, bad things do happen, and yes, they can happen to you.

[CrazyC83]

11 pm advisory: 45 kt. Not sure the source of that, maybe ship data.