ATL: JOSE - Remnants - Discussion

[tolakram]

Same thing I posted in the Irene thread. 91L down in the corner.

[Florida1118]

Well if it can find better conditions...

[SootyTern]

Same thing I posted in the Irene thread. 91L down in the corner.

Cute little thing. His towel slipped off exposing his naked circulation just before sunset.

[CrazyC83]

Irene has a little baby...a boy?

[Chacor]

UPDATED...SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SMALL LOW PRESSURE
AREA LOCATED ABOUT 160 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA HAS
INCREASED THIS MORNING. WHILE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE
FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO
BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE TODAY BEFORE CONDITIONS BECOME EVEN LESS
FAVORABLE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
GENERALLY NORTHWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS COULD AFFECT
BERMUDA TODAY...AND INTERESTS ON BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

[Extratropical94]

Oh my god, we have JOSE!

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM JOSE SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112011
1200 UTC SUN AUG 28 2011

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
BERMUDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.8N 65.7W AT 28/1200Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 45NE 45SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.8N 65.7W AT 28/1200Z
AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.7N 65.4W

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 32.4N 66.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 45SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 35.0N 66.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.8N 65.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BLAKE

[Chacor]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al912011_al112011.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201108281137
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 11, 2011, DB, O, 2011082618, 9999999999, , , , , , WARNING, 1, AL112011
AL, 11, 2011082518, , BEST, 0, 274N, 544W, 30, 1018, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 11, 2011082606, , BEST, 0, 274N, 578W, 30, 1018, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 11, 2011082612, , BEST, 0, 274N, 590W, 30, 1017, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 11, 2011082618, , BEST, 0, 274N, 602W, 30, 1015, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1017, 100, 25, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 11, 2011082700, , BEST, 0, 276N, 613W, 30, 1014, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1017, 100, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 11, 2011082706, , BEST, 0, 278N, 625W, 30, 1011, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1015, 100, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 11, 2011082712, , BEST, 0, 279N, 634W, 30, 1008, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 90, 35, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 11, 2011082718, , BEST, 0, 283N, 643W, 30, 1008, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 90, 35, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 11, 2011082800, , BEST, 0, 291N, 649W, 30, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 90, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 11, 2011082806, , BEST, 0, 297N, 654W, 35, 1010, LO, 34, NEQ, 45, 45, 0, 0, 1012, 90, 30, 45, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

[Extratropical94]

TROPICAL STORM JOSE SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112011
1200 UTC SUN AUG 28 2011

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
BERMUDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.8N 65.7W AT 28/1200Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 45NE 45SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.8N 65.7W AT 28/1200Z
AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.7N 65.4W

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 32.4N 66.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 45SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 35.0N 66.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.8N 65.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BLAKE

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JOSE SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112011
800 AM AST SUN AUG 28 2011

...TROPICAL STORM JOSE FORMS NEAR BERMUDA...TROPICAL STORM WARNING
ISSUED...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.8N 65.7W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
BERMUDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12
HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOSE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.7 WEST. JOSE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST TODAY AND JOSE SHOULD
WEAKEN ON SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON BERMUDA BEGINNING
LATER THIS MORNING.

RAINFALL...RAIN TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ON BERMUDA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BLAKE


TROPICAL STORM JOSE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112011
800 AM AST SUN AUG 28 2011

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF BERMUDA HAS MAINTAINED ENOUGH
ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION TO BE CONSIDERED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS...THE LOW HAS EXPERIENCED SEVERAL BURSTS
OF DEEP CONVECTION...WITH ANOTHER BURST NOW BEGINNING JUST EAST OF
THE CENTER. DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE RECENTLY INCREASED TO 2.0 AND
SUPPORT INITIATING ADVISORIES. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS 35
KT...BASED ON AN ASCAT PASS FROM OVERNIGHT WHICH SUGGESTED THE
MAXIMUM WINDS WERE AT LEAST 35 KT. NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY SHEAR
OF 40-50 KT OVER THE CYCLONE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW OF
HURRICANE IRENE...IS HAMPERING SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. ALTHOUGH
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SHEAR COULD LESSEN SOMEWHAT DURING
THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DISSIPATION WITHIN
36 HOURS AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT. THE CYCLONE SHOULD
MOVE NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE
OF A LOW-/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BEFORE LOSING
ITS IDENTITY.

GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE CYCLONE TO BERMUDA...THE BERMUDA WEATHER
SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BERMUDA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/1200Z 30.8N 65.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 28/1800Z 32.4N 66.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 29/0600Z 35.0N 66.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BLAKE

[cycloneye]

Oh my god, we have JOSE!

Yes,a huge surprise as they skipped TD status.

[Extratropical94]

Oh my god, we have JOSE!

Yes,a huge surprise as they skipped TD status.

And because it went from 0% chance at 2am to Jose at 8am! (via 30% at 5am)

[bob rulz]

I was barely thinking that these little invests out in the Atlantic around Bermuda have a tendency to surprise when I went to the NHC website and saw Jose up there.

I'm a bit confused though...this doesn't really have any deep convection. Is it just because the low-level swirl is so pronounced? You can see some clouds with it but not much really shows up on the IR.

[Chacor]

Under 40-50 kt of shear, per discussion. Upgrade was made based on Dvorak of T2.0 and ASCAT of 35 kt from last night.

[wxman57]

Is this April 1st?

[Gustywind]

Oh my god, we have JOSE!

Yes,a huge surprise as they skipped TD status.

And because it went from 0% chance at 2am to Jose at 8am! (via 30% at 5am)

And that means that anything can happen in the tropics and the numbers are not often able to forecast what could really occur with each system! Something to meditate as we're now the heart of the season. Any suspicious cloud could be something...

[tolakram]

Well.

Live visible loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

latest image

[bob rulz]

Well it's certainly a cute little thing isn't it.

[Extratropical94]

They probably upgraded it to prevent Bermuda from getting caught off-guard.

[ObsessedMiami]

Big surprise for Bermuda residents. Sure they are watching Irene on tv and this TS warning must have blindsided them

[WeatherGuesser]

3 Day cone doesn't make too much of it.







Yet.