ATL: LEE - Remnants - Discussion
Moderator: S2k Moderators
- South Texas Storms
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 4005
- Joined: Thu Jun 24, 2010 12:28 am
- Location: Houston, TX
Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models
Wxman, do you think it will miss the trough and head back WSW into TX?
0 likes
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 2219
- Joined: Thu Jul 03, 2003 12:08 am
- Location: Baton Rouge, LA
- Contact:
I think a lot will depend on how tightly this system wraps up. If convection is displaced due to shear or not getting its act together then some places very near the center of circulation could end up seeing very little in the way of rain and just have a cloudly, drizzly very windy day. Then those further off to the northeast could have all the rain and less of the wind. It just depends, really! I think someone will get a lot of rain but I think it might be displaced, just my opinion.
0 likes
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 6617
- Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:27 am
- Location: Houston, TX
The NAM may have been on to something when they had this developing earlier then most models yesterday.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-vis.html
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-vis.html
0 likes
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 2219
- Joined: Thu Jul 03, 2003 12:08 am
- Location: Baton Rouge, LA
- Contact:
Re:
fci wrote:I'll give it 2-3 days before the thread on 93L/Future Lee passes the thread on Katia in number of pages.......
Don't forget to add the 32 pages that this got to before it was even an invest. The Katia discussion is only at 30 pages. This could already be leading, haha
Last edited by BigB0882 on Wed Aug 31, 2011 2:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139057
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re:
fci wrote:I'll give it 2-3 days before the thread on 93L/Future Lee passes the thread on Katia in number of pages.......
If it stalls for a few days in the GOM as some models have it may well get close to Irenes one.
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139057
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models
First Tropical Model plots for 93L:
Code: Select all
WHXX01 KWBC 311850
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1850 UTC WED AUG 31 2011
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932011) 20110831 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
110831 1800 110901 0600 110901 1800 110902 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 24.1N 87.0W 25.3N 89.2W 26.5N 91.4W 27.1N 93.1W
BAMD 24.1N 87.0W 25.0N 88.3W 25.9N 89.4W 26.6N 90.3W
BAMM 24.1N 87.0W 25.2N 88.8W 26.2N 90.5W 26.9N 91.8W
LBAR 24.1N 87.0W 25.2N 88.4W 26.4N 89.8W 27.4N 91.0W
SHIP 30KTS 35KTS 42KTS 50KTS
DSHP 30KTS 35KTS 42KTS 50KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
110902 1800 110903 1800 110904 1800 110905 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 27.6N 94.5W 26.9N 96.4W 24.9N 98.0W 23.0N 101.1W
BAMD 27.3N 90.8W 28.3N 90.9W 28.9N 91.2W 28.9N 91.0W
BAMM 27.5N 92.9W 27.1N 93.6W 25.8N 91.4W 28.2N 88.3W
LBAR 28.3N 92.0W 29.0N 93.1W 29.1N 94.1W 29.0N 94.8W
SHIP 59KTS 69KTS 73KTS 71KTS
DSHP 59KTS 69KTS 73KTS 71KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 24.1N LONCUR = 87.0W DIRCUR = 320DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 22.5N LONM12 = 85.5W DIRM12 = 320DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 19.8N LONM24 = 83.0W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- Ivanhater
- Storm2k Moderator
- Posts: 10852
- Age: 37
- Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2005 8:25 am
- Location: Pensacola
Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models
wxman57 wrote:Ivanhater wrote:
The Euro is very close to getting picked up by the trough to be fair. How far west this gets in the short term is going to make a huge difference in this getting picked up or left behind in the Gulf imo.
Yep, almost but not quite picked up. Wonder if the 00Z GFS will do a switch and show it blocked then moving west once the blocking high moves east?
I wonder if the 00z Euro will get fully picked up?
Regardless, looks like a lot of rain for the Gulf coast.
0 likes
Michael
- alan1961
- Category 2
- Posts: 767
- Joined: Mon Mar 20, 2006 11:58 am
- Location: Derby, Derbyshire, England
- Contact:
Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion
underthwx wrote:Aric...can illustrate on radar with an arrow or a circle..the area of a possible LLC..you mentioned before the topics changed?
Somewhere about here underthwx
0 likes
- Portastorm
- Storm2k Moderator
- Posts: 9787
- Age: 61
- Joined: Fri Jul 11, 2003 9:16 am
- Location: South Austin, TX
- Contact:
Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models
underthwx wrote:Air Force Met wrote:caneman wrote: Just as I suspected. Euro has been all over the place. Euro Fail...Still too early though to know for sure..
Give it a rest. So you don't like the Euro. The GFS has had plenty of failures this year. Euro was pretty consistent with Irene, keeping the track close to the coast...when the GFS has started moving it out to sea and had to bring it back towards the coast. The GFS was horrible with Don. The Euro wasn't much better. A blend worked OK.
It's a model. The GFS is a model. Any Euro-hating...or even GFS-hating agenda's are not going to be tolerated. Either add something constructive or don't add anything at all.
with that being said...i almost hate to ask..and i understand that yall are very busy...but as a beginner...are the Euro and the Gfs the main models the NHC use mostly?...for reliability?
0 likes
Any forecasts under my name are to be taken with a grain of salt. Get your best forecasts from the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.
I'm a certified Advanced SKYWARN-trained spotter and am active on Twitter at @TravisCOSW, a social media partner of the NWS Austin-San Antonio office.
I'm a certified Advanced SKYWARN-trained spotter and am active on Twitter at @TravisCOSW, a social media partner of the NWS Austin-San Antonio office.
Re: Re:
Air Force Met wrote:caneman wrote: Just as I suspected. Euro has been all over the place. Euro Fail...Still too early though to know for sure..
Give it a rest. So you don't like the Euro. The GFS has had plenty of failures this year. Euro was pretty consistent with Irene, keeping the track close to the coast...when the GFS has started moving it out to sea and had to bring it back towards the coast. The GFS was horrible with Don. The Euro wasn't much better. A blend worked OK.
It's a model. The GFS is a model. Any Euro-hating...or even GFS-hating agenda's are not going to be tolerated. Either add something constructive or don't add anything at all.
Not a euro hater a model consensus lover - just for the record
"Any Euro-hating...or even GFS-hating agenda's are not going to be tolerated."
Good - glad to hear it
0 likes
- Portastorm
- Storm2k Moderator
- Posts: 9787
- Age: 61
- Joined: Fri Jul 11, 2003 9:16 am
- Location: South Austin, TX
- Contact:
Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models
underthewx, the GFS and Euro are considered "global" models and used to predict weather throughout the world. Then they are tropical models which are designed to forecast the movement of tropical cyclones. You will find those on websites like the South Florida Water Management District and Colorado State and others in the "Model Sites" link above.
0 likes
Any forecasts under my name are to be taken with a grain of salt. Get your best forecasts from the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.
I'm a certified Advanced SKYWARN-trained spotter and am active on Twitter at @TravisCOSW, a social media partner of the NWS Austin-San Antonio office.
I'm a certified Advanced SKYWARN-trained spotter and am active on Twitter at @TravisCOSW, a social media partner of the NWS Austin-San Antonio office.
Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion
alan1961 wrote:underthwx wrote:Aric...can illustrate on radar with an arrow or a circle..the area of a possible LLC..you mentioned before the topics changed?
Somewhere about here underthwx
http://img14.imageshack.us/img14/4684/invest93l.gif[/img]
thanks...i was looking further west....everything to me looks like its spinning out there...
0 likes
- SEASON_CANCELED
- Category 3
- Posts: 887
- Joined: Mon Jul 06, 2009 5:17 am
- Location: 8 Bit Charlie Sheen
Alot of people are fans of the Euro, and its a good model. I personally think the GFS is better. But that discussion will lead to fist fights here on s2k. It really doesnt matter, always look for the consensus.
0 likes
i am a big stupid ugly moron with an ugly face and a big butt and my butt stinks and i like to kiss my own butt
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139057
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion
Let's not quote images.If you are going to quote a post with an image,take off the img tag.Thank you for your cooperation on this.
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models
Sure looks like a North Gulf coast threat but way to many variables in play.
0 likes
Re:
SEASON_CANCELED wrote:Alot of people are fans of the Euro, and its a good model. I personally think the GFS is better. But that discussion will lead to fist fights here on s2k. It really doesnt matter, always look for the consensus.
I hear ya. Model consensus is always is a good way to go. Will be more right than wrong. I use to 2nd guess NHC for a long time but I don't think I ever won any of those battles.
0 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 42 guests