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 Post subject: Re: Caribbean - C America - Watching Tropical Storm Ophelia/90L
PostPosted: Fri Sep 23, 2011 10:02 pm 
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
1100 PM AST FRI SEP 23 2011

...OPHELIA FLUCTUATING IN INTENSITY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 54.5W
ABOUT 490 MI...790 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

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 Post subject: Re: Re:
PostPosted: Sat Sep 24, 2011 5:14 am 
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cycloneye wrote:
Gustywind wrote:
Yellow vigilance maintained for strong and dangerous sea

franceantilles.fr23.09.2011

:rarrow: http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 139611.php

According to recent trajectory forecasts, Storm Ophelia should pass 280 km northeast of Guadeloupe, far enough that its impact is limited to sea conditions.

Tropical Storm Ophelia which stands currently at about 780 km South-East of Guadeloupe, is progressing slowly towards the West and generates a swell of East long and energy which will affect the Guadeloupean coast during the next two days. The sea is currently rough on the ocean front where average lows are of the order of 2 m 70. A strong sea is expected average troughs of the order of 2 m 80 to 3 m in the evening. The swell becomes more long and energy means hollow should then reach 3 m 50 to 4 m in the night and Saturday in the day, maximum waves that can reach 5-6 m. sea begin to depreciate on the night of Saturday to Sunday. According to recent trajectory forecasts, Storm Ophelia should pass 280 km northeast of Guadeloupe, far enough that its impact is limited to sea conditions.There is a risk of flood of large rolls on exposed coasts, mainly the Pointe des Châteaux in Anse-Bertrand, as well as on the coast of la Desirade and Marie-Galante. Navigation conditions are dangerous for small boats.


Gusty,also,for PR/VI there is a small craft advisory.


URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
509 PM AST FRI SEP 23 2011

...SEAS INCREASE AHEAD OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA...

.MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE KEEPING SEAS ROUGH. SEAS WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND
REMAIN HIGH THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND
THE ANEGADA PASSAGE.

AMZ710-722-240515-
/O.CON.TJSJ.SC.Y.0128.110924T0700Z-110927T0700Z/
ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-
ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-
509 PM AST FRI SEP 23 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO
3 AM AST TUESDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO
3 AM AST TUESDAY.

* WAVES: SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 7 TO 10 FEET BY SUNDAY...HIGHEST
IN THE NORTHEAST CORNER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 22 TO 33 KNOTS AND
SEAS OF 7 FEET AND GREATER ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS
MARINE CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...
ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID
NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I've noticied that :) thanks for keep us informed Cycloneye. Let's wait and see what could happen.


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 Post subject: Re: Caribbean - C America - Watching T Storm Ophelia / TD 17
PostPosted: Sat Sep 24, 2011 5:32 am 
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Good morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
550 AM AST SAT SEP 24 2011

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DIG WEST ABOUT 250 MILES NORTH
OF PUERTO RICO AND THEN RETREAT NORTH NORTHWEST. AFTER TUESDAY...
FLOW OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL RE-FORM
IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC JUST ABOVE 20 NORTH DURING THE UPCOMING
WEEK AND DRIFT WEST NORTHWEST OVER THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

AT LOWER LEVELS...TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA MOVES NORTHWEST AND
APPEARS TO SLOW AND WEAKEN AS IT BUTTS UP AGAINST THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW. IT IS NOT CLEAR THAT IT WILL REMAIN A TROPICAL STORM THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. LIGHT LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE AREA WILL GIVE WAY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW LATE NEXT WEEK THAT MAY BRING ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE TO THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MIMIC PRODUCT REVEALED A PATCH OF MOISTURE NOT
ASSOCIATED WITH OPHELIA MOVING FROM THE NORTHEAST OVER THE LOCAL
AREA AND THAT HAS BROUGHT AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS TO ALL
SURROUNDING WATERS EXCEPT THOSE IN THE LEE OF THE EAST NORTHEAST
FLOW. DRIER AIR REMAINS BETWEEN OPHELIA AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO AND WILL DOMINATE TODAY`S WEATHER. THE
ENVELOPE OF HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA
IS ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTHEAST AND SHOULD ARRIVE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS
GIVEN SOME SLOWING OF THE TROPICAL STORM. EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH
SURFACE FLOW FROM THE NORTHEAST...WOULD EXPECT SHOWERS TO BEGIN OVER
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE NORTHEAST HALF OF PUERTO RICO.
MODELS DO NOT BRING THE BEST MOISTURE FROM THE STORM OVER THE AREA
AND RAINFALL CHANCES DIMINISH AFTER SUNDAY...BUT ARE STILL GOOD
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
DRIER AIR INTRUDES AROUND THE SYSTEM EVEN IN ITS WEAKENED STATE
BUT TIMING OF THESE DRY SLOTS IS NOT POSSIBLE YET. SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE INDICATED NEXT WEEK IN INTERIOR PUERTO RICO THAT MAY
BE HEAVY...AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF VERY
LOCALIZED URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES FOR THE
NEXT 24 HRS. HOWEVER...POSSIBLE TSRA IN THE VICINITY OF TJMZ AFTER
24/16Z MAY CAUSE TEMPO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...ALSO MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE. GENERALLY EASTERLY WIND AT AROUND 10 TO 30 KTS FROM THE
SURFACE TO AROUND 15K FT...BECOMING SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHEASTERLY WITH
HEIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS HAVE RISEN TO ABOVE 8 FEET AT BUOY 41043 NORTH OF
THE AREA AND TO ABOVE 10 FEET AT BUOY 41044 AT THE SAME LATITUDE
AT 58 WEST...SO HAVE SOME CONFIDENCE THAT HIGHER SEAS ARE ARRIVING
IN THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF OUR MARINE WATERS FROM TROPICAL
STORM OPHELIA. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNDAY BUT MAY
LINGER IN THE ATLANTIC THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 78 89 78 / 30 20 50 30
STT 89 79 88 79 / 30 30 30 40

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 Post subject: Re: Caribbean - C America - Watching T Storm Ophelia / TD 17
PostPosted: Sat Sep 24, 2011 5:34 am 
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5 AM Track of Ophelia.

Image

5 AM Track of TD 17.

Image

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 Post subject: Re: Caribbean - C America - Watching T Storm Ophelia / TD 17
PostPosted: Sat Sep 24, 2011 10:56 am 
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Thanks cycloneye for keeping an eye on the tropics. I also want to thank 'southwest shear' and the track of Ophelia for allowing us to leave on our US vacation tomorrow. We will be watching from up North for the next month. 'Fee-leep' looks to be a fish then maybe that will end the Cape Verde season and all eyes will turn to the Caribbean and the GOM.


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 Post subject: Re: Caribbean - C America - Watching T Storm Ophelia / TD 17
PostPosted: Sat Sep 24, 2011 11:00 am 
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Jimsot wrote:
Thanks cycloneye for keeping an eye on the tropics. I also want to thank 'southwest shear' and the track of Ophelia for allowing us to leave on our US vacation tomorrow. We will be watching from up North for the next month. 'Fee-leep' looks to be a fish then maybe that will end the Cape Verde season and all eyes will turn to the Caribbean and the GOM.


Thank you for those words. Have a safe travel.

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 Post subject: Re: Caribbean - C America - Watching T Storm Ophelia / TD 17
PostPosted: Sat Sep 24, 2011 2:42 pm 
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
331 PM AST SAT SEP 24 2011

.SYNOPSIS...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE TRADE
WIND FLOW THROUGH TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK NORTHWEST AND PASS SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
AND THEY ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY EVENING.

THE GFS AND THE NAM MODEL CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A SIGNIFICANTLY
INCREASE ON LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION...MOVING FROM THE
ATLANTIC TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST. THE MOISTURE IS EVIDENT ON THE
SATELLITES IMAGES. THEREFORE EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
TO AFFECT THE NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND NORTHERN USVI
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO
INCREASE AS OPHELIA MOVES CLOSER TO THE LOCAL REGION. THE LATEST
NHS TRAJECTORY MAINTAIN THE TROPICAL SYSTEM OVER 300 MILES
NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. EVENTUALLY MOISTURE ASSOCIATED TO THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF OPHELIA WILL REACH THE LOCAL REGION ON TUESDAY
INCREASING SIGNIFICANTLY THE CHANCES OF RAIN.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES FOR THE
NEXT 24 HRS EXCEPT FOR TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS IN TJMZ AFTER 24/18Z IN
POSSIBLE TSRA...ALSO MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE. GENERALLY EASTERLY
WIND AT AROUND 10 TO 30 KTS FROM THE SURFACE TO AROUND 15K
FT...BECOMING MORE NORTHEASTERLY WITH HEIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...SLIGHTLY REDUCE THE WAVE HEIGHT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DUE
TO THE ACTUAL CONDITIONS AND FORECAST OF OPHELIA. THE WIND FIELD
DID NOT DEVELOP TO THE EXTENSION AND THE STRENGHT AS EXPECTED
THEREFORE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BE ROUGH BUT NOT AS BAD AS
EXPECTED. SMALL CRAFT REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE LOCAL OFF SHORE
WATERS OF THE ATLANTIC...ANEGADA PASSAGE AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 89 78 90 / 40 50 30 30
STT 79 88 79 88 / 50 40 40 40

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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Sat Sep 24, 2011 2:55 pm 
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Strong showers and tstorms are falling nicely here since 30 minutes.


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 Post subject: Re:
PostPosted: Sat Sep 24, 2011 2:58 pm 
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Gustywind wrote:
Strong showers and tstorms are falling nicely here since 30 minutes.


Gusty,keep us informed of what is going on over there and let us know if there are yellow alerts.

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 Post subject: Re: Re:
PostPosted: Sat Sep 24, 2011 3:05 pm 
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cycloneye wrote:
Gustywind wrote:
Strong showers and tstorms are falling nicely here since 30 minutes.


Gusty,keep us informed of what is going on over there and let us know if there are yellow alerts.

Yeah i will, waouw lightnings are just brighting my face while i'm in the house! Guadeloupe and the Northern Leewards are always in yellow alert for strong and dangerous seas.


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 Post subject: Re: Caribbean - C America - Watching T Storms Ophelia/Philippe
PostPosted: Sat Sep 24, 2011 4:21 pm 
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WTNT31 KNHC 242040
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
500 PM AST SAT SEP 24 2011

...OPHELIA WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AS IT MOVES ERRATICALLY TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 57.4W
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.4 WEST. OPHELIA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TO THE NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED BY
MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 260 MILES...415 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART






BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011
500 PM AST SAT SEP 24 2011

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE OVER THE FAR
EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.2N 27.9W
ABOUT 345 MI...550 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 27.9 WEST. PHILIPPE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Sat Sep 24, 2011 4:23 pm 
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Things have calm dowm since 30 minutes. That was a very brief but intense episode of strong showers and tstorms.


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 Post subject: Re:
PostPosted: Sat Sep 24, 2011 9:42 pm 
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Gustywind wrote:
Things have calm dowm since 30 minutes. That was a very brief but intense episode of strong showers and tstorms.


That is good news.

Here is the 11 PM advisory on Ophelia.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
1100 PM AST SAT SEP 24 2011

...OPHELIA STRUGGLING TO SURVIVE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 58.4W
ABOUT 310 MI...495 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

And on Philippe.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011
1100 PM AST SAT SEP 24 2011

...PHILIPPE NO THREAT TO LAND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.6N 28.8W
ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

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 Post subject: Re: Caribbean - C America - Watching T Storms Ophelia/Philippe
PostPosted: Sun Sep 25, 2011 5:14 am 
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Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
520 AM AST SUN SEP 25 2011

.SYNOPSIS...AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL BRING PASSING SHOWERS
AND WILL HELP DEVELOP THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WESTERN...AND NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.


&&

.DISCUSSION...BOTH THE GFS AND NAM MODELS SHOW AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE GFS IS A BIT FASTER AND
BRINGS MORE MOISTURE. MIMIC-TPW IMAGES INDICATE THAT THERE IS
INDEED AN AREA OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE MOVING OUR WAY TODAY. AFTER
TODAY...THE GFS SHOWS A RELATIVELY SMALL AREA OF DRIER AIR OVER
OUR AREA ON MONDAY AND THEN ONCE AGAIN AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE
FROM TUESDAY UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND ALSO AN
INCREASE IN INSTABILITY. FOR TODAY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM GFS
AND NAM ARE IN SOME DISAGREEMENT. THE GFS AGAIN IS MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH THE MOISTURE AND THE INSTABILITY...SHOWING A WET-BULB ZERO
HEIGHT UNDER 12K FT...HELICITY OF 42...PW OF 1.7 TO 1.8
INCHES...TT INDEX OF AROUND 45 AND CAPE OF UP TO 3K JOULES. WHILE
THE NAM IS NOT AS UNSTABLE IN ALMOST ALL PARAMETERS...THE PW
VALUES ARE SIMILAR TO THOSE IN THE GFS.

NEVERTHELESS...THERE IS EVIDENCE THAT SUGGESTS THAT THERE WILL BE
AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY WHICH WILL GIVE US THE POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS...AND THEN THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF PUERTO RICO...AND POSSIBLY EVEN
VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

ACCORDING TO THE 5 AM AST ADVISORY ON T.S. OPHELIA...THE STORM IS
NOW MOVING TO THE WEST AT 12 MPH AT 18.4N AND 59.5W WITH WINDS OF
UP TO 40 MPH. THE STORM SEEMS TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
CLOSER TO OUR AREA AND INTO HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT.


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES FOR THE
NEXT 24 HRS EXCEPT AFT AFT 25/16Z...POSSIBLE TSRA IN THE VICINITY OF
TJMZ...TJBQ WHICH MAY CAUSE TEMPO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.
EXPECT MTN OBSCURATIONS ESPECIALLY N SIDE OF CORDILLERA CENTRAL.
GENERALLY EASTERLY WIND AT AROUND 10 TO 25 KTS FROM THE SURFACE TO
AROUND 15K FT...BECOMING SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHEASTERLY WITH HEIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...BUOY 41043 SEEMS TO HAVE PEAKED AT 11.5 FEET AT AROUND
25/02Z AND AFTER THAT IT HAS REMAINED CLOSE TO 9.5 FEET AS OF
25/08Z. LOCAL MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
HAZARDOUS...THEREFORE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR THE LOCAL OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS...ANEGADA PASSAGE AND EASTERN
CARIBBEAN.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 78 89 78 / 60 40 60 10
STT 87 78 88 80 / 50 40 40 20

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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Sun Sep 25, 2011 5:37 am 
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Guadeloupe and the Northern Leewards... back to green code :).


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 Post subject: Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
PostPosted: Sun Sep 25, 2011 7:37 am 
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The low pressure is due east of St Maarten this morning.

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 Post subject: Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
PostPosted: Sun Sep 25, 2011 10:00 am 
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
1100 AM AST SUN SEP 25 2011

...OPHELIA MAKES A JOG TOWARD THE WEST BUT EXPECTED TO TURN BACK
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 60.4W
ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES

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 Post subject: Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
PostPosted: Sun Sep 25, 2011 2:02 pm 
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Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Rain for almost all this week is forecast for PR.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
256 PM AST SUN SEP 25 2011

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW NW OF THE REGION WILL SLOWLY FILL OVR THE
NEXT SVRL DAYS AS IT DRIFTS TO THE EAST. MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL BUILD TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. AT THE SFC...BERMUDA HIGH
PRES WILL WEAKEN AS TS OPHELIA OR HER REMNANTS MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY ALONG WITH A 1358Z ASCAT PASS
AND AIRCRAFT DATA SHOW THAT OPHELIA STILL HAS A CLOSED SFC
CIRCULATION ALBEIT WEAK. DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP
NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER OVR THE PAST TWO HOURS. BASED ON A
RECENT VORTEX MESSAGE FROM THE PLANE AND A 1358Z ASCAT PASS WHICH
SHOWED MAX WINDS OF ONLY 25 KNOTS IT IS LIKELY THAT OPHELIA WILL
BE DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT 5PM.

OVR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS...PRES GRADIENT WILL REMAIN VERY LIGHT AND
AT TIMES NON-EXISTENT. THIS WILL SUPPORT LIGHT TRADES WITH STRONG
SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF
PR. THIS WILL COMBINED WITH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TC OPHELIA
TO PRODUCE SCT-NMRS AFTERNOON TSRA. STEERING WINDS WILL BE HIGHLY
VARIABLE IN THE ORDER OF 5-10 KNOTS AND WOULD DEPEND ON THE EXACT
LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF OPHELIA. XPCT THE EASTERN HALF OF PR TO
HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCES OF AFTERNOON TSTMS AS OPPOSED TO WRN PR.
CONVECTION WILL ALSO BE VERY SLOW MOVING WITH 0-6KM WINDS IN THE
ORDER OF ONLY 5-10 KNOTS. XPCT CONVECTION TO DIE OUT QUICKLY AFTER
SUNSET WITH CLEAR SKIES AT NIGHT. GIVEN THE XPCD LIGHT WIND
FLOW...WET SOILS AND THE EXPECTED CLEARING AT NIGHT...DENSE FOG WILL
LIKELY BE AN ISSUE LATE AT NIGHT ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS
UNTIL AN HOUR AFTER SUNRISE

OPHELIA FCST TO GET OUT OF THE PICTURE BY NEXT FRI WITH TRADES
RETURNING TO THE AREA. BIG RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD AT MID AND UPPER
LEVELS NEXT WEEKEND WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ERODING WITH TYPICAL
ISOLD CONVECTION RETURNING TO WRN PR.


&&

.AVIATION...TSTMS IN THE VICINITY OF TNCM/TKPK OVR THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS WITH TNCM HAVING THE BEST CHANCE OF TSTMS DUE TO ITS
PROXIMITY TO TC OPHELIA. AFTERNOON TSTMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF PR
WILL BE VERY SLOW MOVING. STEERING WINDS DO NOT FAVOR THE
CONVECTION TO IMPACT ANY OF THE TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...EAST SWELLS ASSOCIATED TO OPHELIA XPCD TO PEAK TONIGHT
AND THEN BEGIN TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE LATE MON. GRADIENT WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH OPHELIA WILL ONLY AFFECT AMZ710 WITH MAX WINDS OF
25 KT. SCA FOR AMZ710 WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 89 78 91 / 30 60 10 20
STT 78 88 80 87 / 30 30 10 20

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 Post subject: Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
PostPosted: Sun Sep 25, 2011 2:47 pm 
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This is why Puerto Rico doesn't need more rain.Read this climate statement.

CLIMATE...AT THE SJU LMM INTL ARPT A TOTAL OF 68.17 INCHES OF RAIN
HAVE FALLEN SO FAR THIS YEAR. THIS STILL REPRESENTS THE WETTEST
START TO A YEAR ON RECORD. IF JUST AVG RAINFALL WERE TO FALL THRU
THE REMAINDER OF THIS YEAR (17.78 INS) 2011 WOULD END UP AS THE
THIRD WETTEST YEAR ON RECORD. ON THE OTHER HAND...IF JUST 6.64
INCHES WERE TO FALL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS YEAR WHICH IS THE
LEAST AMOUNT OF RAIN THAT HAS FALLEN DURING THE PERIOD SEPT 26-DEC
31 (97 CALENDAR DAYS) 2011 WOULD END AS THE TENTH WETTEST YEAR ON
RECORD. INSTEAD IF 31.07 INS WERE TO FALL WHICH IS THE MOST AMOUNT
OF RAIN THAT HAS FALLEN DURING THIS SAME PERIOD THEN 2011 WOULD END
WITH NEARLY 100 INCHES OF RAIN.


AT THE CHRISTIANSTED ARPT IN ST. CROIX...SEPT 2011 IS LIKELY TO END
AS THE SEVENTH DRIEST SEPT ON RECORD WITH JUST OVER 2 INCHES OF RAIN
SO FAR THIS MONTH.

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 Post subject: Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
PostPosted: Sun Sep 25, 2011 3:55 pm 
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Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Last advisory on Ophelia.

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
500 PM AST SUN SEP 25 2011

...OPHELIA DEGENERATES INTO A REMNANT LOW...THIS IS THE LAST
ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.5N 60.9W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.82 INCHES

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