SPO: 17U - Tropical Low (96P)

[HURAKAN]

Potential Cyclones:
The monsoon trough currently lies over the Timor and Arafura Seas and is
becoming more active. A tropical low is expected to form within the trough north
of the Top End during the weekend.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone being in the Northern Region on:
Saturday: Very Low.
Sunday: Low.
Monday: Moderate.

[HurricaneBill]

Only one storm (Cyril) has been named from Fiji's name list so far this season.

SPAC seasons in which less than 3 named storms formed:

1970-1971: Priscilla, Rosie
1974-1975: Val, Alison, Betty
1981-1982: Gyan, Hettie, Isaac
1984-1985: Atu, Beti, Cyril
1990-1991: Sina
1994-1995: Vania, William
2003-2004: Heta, Ivy

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 1
Issued at 11:27 am CST [9:57 am WST] on Monday 12 March 2012

A Cyclone WATCH has been declared for a developing tropical low for coastal
areas from Cape Hotham to Kalumburu including Darwin and the Tiwi Islands .

At 9:30 am CST [8:00 am WST] a Tropical Low was estimated to be
155 kilometres north northwest of Bathurst Island and
265 kilometres north northwest of Darwin and
moving west at 7 kilometres per hour parallel to the coast.

There is the possibility of a cyclone developing but GALES are not expected in
coastal areas within the next 24 hours, however gales could develop later.

The Territory Controller advises communities under Watch that now is the time
to put together your emergency kit, clear your yards and balconies, and
commence home shelter preparations.

Residents of Darwin and Rural Areas are advised that if you DO NOT have
accommodation constructed to the Building Code or are unsure of your present
accommodation you should determine which public emergency shelter to use. This
advice is issued to allow you sufficient time in which to take the necessary
precautions before winds reach a dangerous level.

FESA-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at
present. Communities between Kalumburu and the NT Border should listen for the
next advice.

Details of Tropical Low at 9:30 am CST [8:00 am WST]:
.Centre located near...... 10.3 degrees South 129.8 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 85 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west at 7 kilometres per hour
.Central pressure......... 1001 hectoPascals

Please ensure that neighbours have heard and understood this message,
particularly new arrivals or those who may not fully understand English.

The next advice will be issued by 5:00 pm CST Monday 12 March [3:30 pm WST
Monday 12 March].

This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211 and WA-1300 659 210

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

[HURAKAN]

Latest visible

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0801 UTC 12/03/2012
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 17U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 11.0S
Longitude: 128.5E
Location Accuracy: within 45 nm [85 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [247 deg]
Speed of Movement: 9 knots [17 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 25 knots [45 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1000 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T1.5/1.5/D0.5/24hrs
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 12/1800: 11.6S 127.7E: 055 [100]: 030 [055]: 1000
+24: 13/0600: 12.1S 127.9E: 060 [110]: 030 [055]: 1001
+36: 13/1800: 12.8S 128.7E: 075 [140]: 040 [075]: 995
+48: 14/0600: 13.5S 129.1E: 090 [165]: 050 [095]: 989
+60: 14/1800: 14.4S 129.7E: 105 [195]: 050 [095]: 989
+72: 15/0600: 15.5S 131.1E: 120 [220]: 040 [075]: 996
REMARKS:
The tropical low has moved steadily towards the southwest during the day, into
the Timor Sea west of the Tiwi Islands. Position fix is poor, based on satellite
animation and peripheral radar and surface observations. The structure has
improved with persistent central convection organised into weakly curved bands
around a mid-level circulation centre. Dvorak analysis yields FT=1.5 based on a
shear pattern and cloudband curvature earlier in the day. The LLCC has been
difficult to locate and is thought to be close to the western edge of the cloud
mass. The development rate has been slow under the influence of easterly
vertical wind shear north of the subtropical ridge. The environment becomes
favourable for continuing development at the standard rate as the low moves
closer to the ridge axis, with a divergent upper pattern and a low-level
monsoonal wind surge impinging from the west during Tuesday. Model track
forecasts are consistent, indicating a slowing and sharp turn towards the
southeast during Tuesday with movement towards the coast.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 12/1330 UTC by Darwin TCWC.

[HURAKAN]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 11.0S 128.7E,
APPROXIMATELY 155 NM NORTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE
WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 120550Z AMSU IMAGE INDICATES DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF A DEFINED LLCC. THE
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST EQUATORWARD OF AN UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYLONE AND IS UNDER MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).
HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK INTO THE JOSEPH BONAPARTE
GULF, UNDER A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, AND SHOULD STRENGTHEN
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NEXT 12-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1336 UTC 12/03/2012
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 17U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 11.3S
Longitude: 128.2E
Location Accuracy: within 60 nm [110 km]
Movement Towards: southwest [224 deg]
Speed of Movement: 4 knots [8 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 25 knots [45 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1000 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T1.5/1.5/D0.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 13/0000: 11.5S 127.8E: 090 [165]: 030 [055]: 1000
+24: 13/1200: 12.3S 128.5E: 120 [220]: 030 [055]: 996
+36: 14/0000: 13.1S 129.1E: 155 [285]: 045 [085]: 992
+48: 14/1200: 14.4S 129.7E: 185 [345]: 045 [085]: 993
+60: 15/0000: 15.5S 130.4E: 235 [430]: 030 [055]: 1001
+72: 15/1200: 16.6S 131.9E: 280 [520]: 030 [055]: 1001
REMARKS:
The tropical low has slowed but continues to steadily towards the southwest,
west of the Tiwi Islands. Position fix is poor, based on satellite animation and
peripheral radar and surface observations. The structure is poor with the deep
convection sheared to the southwest indicative of a sheared environment. Dvorak
analysis yields FT=1.5 based on a shear pattern and cloud-band curvature. The
LLCC has been difficult to locate and is thought to be close to the eastern edge
of the cloud mass. The development rate has been slow under the influence of
easterly vertical wind shear north of the subtropical ridge. The environment
becomes favourable for continuing development at the standard rate as the low
moves closer to the ridge axis, with a divergent upper pattern and a low-level
monsoonal wind surge from the west during Tuesday. Model track forecasts are
consistent, indicating a slowing and sharp turn towards the southeast during
Tuesday with movement towards the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 12/1930 UTC by Darwin TCWC.

[HURAKAN]

TXXS22 KNES 130031
TCSSIO

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (96P)

B. 13/0001Z

C. 12.9S

D. 126.5E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T1.5/1.5/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...LLCC...IF IT EXISTS...IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE IN EIR AND VIS
IMAGERY, HOWEVER MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTS IT IS ELONGATED. POSITION IS
BASED ON CLOUD SYSTEM CENTER. GT 2/10 W BANDING YIELDS A DT OF 1.5. MET
AND PT AGREE. FT IS BASED ON PT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...GUILLOT

[HURAKAN]

WTXS21 PGTW 122200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN A
160 NM RADIUS OF 12.6S 128.0E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE
25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 122030Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.1S 128.0E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.4S
128.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.1S 128.0E, APPROXIMATELY 165 NM WEST
OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A GROWING AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 121945Z SSMI 37 GHZ IMAGE REVEALS
FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDS SPIRALING INTO THE LLCC. RECENT SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS FROM TROUGHTON ISLAND TO THE SOUTHWEST SHOW 10-MINUTE
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AS HIGH AS 20 KNOTS, WITH A MSLP NEAR 1004 MB.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THIS AREA IS JUST NORTH OF A RIDGE
AXIS WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS); HOWEVER, THIS VWS IS
EXPECTED TO RELAX AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK CLOSER TOWARDS THE RIDGE
AXIS. ADDITIONALLY, A POINT SOURCE TO THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD PROVIDE
IMPROVING OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION ARE
FAVORABLE (30 DEGREES CELSIUS). DUE TO CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
BANDING FEATURES AROUND THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
132200Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0202 UTC 13/03/2012
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 17U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 12.0S
Longitude: 127.8E
Location Accuracy: within 45 nm [85 km]
Movement Towards: south [169 deg]
Speed of Movement: 3 knots [6 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 25 knots [45 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1000 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: D2.0/2.0/D0.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 13/1200: 12.4S 128.3E: 070 [130]: 030 [055]: 998
+24: 14/0000: 12.9S 129.3E: 090 [165]: 035 [065]: 996
+36: 14/1200: 14.0S 129.9E: 100 [185]: 045 [085]: 990
+48: 15/0000: 14.6S 131.2E: 110 [205]: 030 [055]: 999
+60: 15/1200: 15.3S 132.7E: 145 [270]: 030 [055]: 999
+72: 16/0000: 15.9S 134.3E: 180 [335]: 030 [055]: 999
REMARKS:
The tropical low has slowed and appears to be drifting slowly toward the south
in the Timor Sea west of the Tiwi Islands. Position fix remains poor, based on
IR animation, microwave and peripheral radar and surface observations. The
structure has improved with a weakly curved band evident in the western sectors.
Dvorak analysis yields FT=2.0 based on MET and PAT. Development rate has been
slow under the influence of easterly vertical wind shear north of the
subtropical ridge. The environment appears to be favourable for continuing
development at the standard rate with a divergent upper pattern and a low-level
monsoonal wind surge evident in the BandaSea. Model track forecasts are
consistent, indicating an acceleration towards the southeast later today,
reaching the coast later on Wednesday.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 13/0730 UTC by Darwin TCWC.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0755 UTC 13/03/2012
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 17U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 12.5S
Longitude: 128.0E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: south southeast [166 deg]
Speed of Movement: 4 knots [8 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 25 knots [45 km/h]
Central Pressure: 998 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 13/1800: 12.9S 128.7E: 045 [085]: 035 [065]: 996
+24: 14/0600: 13.7S 129.3E: 060 [110]: 040 [075]: 993
+36: 14/1800: 14.5S 130.2E: 075 [140]: 040 [075]: 993
+48: 15/0600: 15.3S 131.3E: 090 [165]: 035 [065]: 997
+60: 15/1800: 16.0S 132.8E: 150 [280]: 030 [055]: 999
+72: 16/0600: 16.9S 133.4E: 210 [390]: 030 [055]: 999
REMARKS:
The tropical low has been located using surface observations and a scatterometer
pass, in the Timor Sea, west of Darwin. A mid-level centre of rotation is
evident from satellite animations about 90nm to the WSW of the LLCC, indicating
that the circulation is tilted by vertical wind shear. Convective structure has
improved with a comma-shaped cloud pattern and peripheral banding. A band of
25kt winds is evident to the north of the low's centre in the 00:25UTC Ascat
pass.
Dvorak analysis yields DT=2.0 based on a shear pattern, with MET=2.5. FT was
held to 2.0 due to the strongly sheared structure. The development rate has been
slow but the low is moving under the upper ridge axis, decreasing the deep layer
shear. A standard development is forecast in a favourable environment with a
divergent upper pattern and a low-level monsoonal wind surge expected to
interact with the low tonight. Model track forecasts are consistent, indicating
an acceleration towards the southeast, reaching the southwest Top End coast
later on Wednesday.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 13/1330 UTC by Darwin TCWC.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1333 UTC 13/03/2012
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 17U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 12.9S
Longitude: 128.0E
Location Accuracy: within 45 nm [85 km]
Movement Towards: south [180 deg]
Speed of Movement: 4 knots [7 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Central Pressure: 997 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 14/0000: 13.6S 128.4E: 075 [140]: 040 [075]: 993
+24: 14/1200: 14.5S 129.1E: 105 [195]: 040 [075]: 993
+36: 15/0000: 15.3S 130.4E: 140 [255]: 030 [055]: 996
+48: 15/1200: 16.3S 132.0E: 170 [315]: 030 [055]: 999
+60: 16/0000: 16.9S 133.4E: 220 [405]: 030 [055]: 999
+72: 16/1200: 17.4S 134.6E: 265 [490]: 030 [055]: 999
REMARKS:
The tropical low has been located using surface observations and a recent
scatterometer pass, in the Timor Sea, southwest of Darwin. A mid-level centre of
rotation is evident from satellite animations just to the west of the LLCC,
indicating that the circulation is tilted by vertical wind shear. Convective
structure is improving with deep convection developing close to the LLCC and
peripheral banding to the east, suggesting that the system is moving into an
area of decreasing shear. A band of 25 to 30kt winds was evident to the north of
the low's centre in the 00:25UTC Ascat pass. This vigorous monsoonal flow is
expected to interact with the low tonight, possibly leading to its
intensification.
Dvorak analysis yields an unrepresentative DT=3.0 based on a shear pattern, with
MET=PT=2.5. FT was held to 2.5, based on the PT, due to the improving structure
and central convection. The development rate has been slow but the low is moving
under the upper ridge axis, decreasing the deep layer shear. A standard
development is forecast in a favourable environment with a divergent upper
pattern. Model track forecasts are consistent, indicating an acceleration
towards the southeast, reaching the southwest Top End coast later on Wednesday.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 13/1930 UTC by Darwin TCWC.

[HURAKAN]

Latest infrared

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1958 UTC 13/03/2012
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 17U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 13.5S
Longitude: 128.2E
Location Accuracy: within 60 nm [110 km]
Movement Towards: south southeast [162 deg]
Speed of Movement: 6 knots [12 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Central Pressure: 997 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 14/0600: 14.4S 129.0E: 090 [165]: 035 [065]: 995
+24: 14/1800: 15.7S 129.8E: 120 [220]: 030 [055]: 997
+36: 15/0600: 16.9S 131.1E: 150 [280]: 025 [045]: 1000
+48: 15/1800: 18.0S 132.4E: 185 [345]: 025 [045]: 1001
+60: 16/0600: 19.1S 133.1E: 230 [430]: 025 [045]: 1001
+72: 16/1800: 20.1S 134.1E: 280 [520]: 020 [035]: 1003
REMARKS:
The tropical low has been located using a combination of surface observations,
radar and a recent scatterometer pass, in the southern Timor Sea, southwest of
Darwin. The circualtion appears to be tilted by vertical wind shear, with the
mid-level centre of rotation to the west of the LLCC, although the system is
moving into an area of decreasing shear.
A band of 30kt winds was evident to the north of the low in the 12:54UTC Ascat
pass.
Dvorak analysis DT is undetermined, with MET=PT=2.5. FT was held to 2.5. A
central cold cover appears to have developed, impeding development. The
development rate has been slow but the low is moving under the upper ridge axis,
decreasing the deep layer shear. Model track forecasts are consistent,
indicating movement towards the southeast, reaching the southwest Top End coast
later today.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 14/0130 UTC by Darwin TCWC.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 13
Issued at 10:39 am CST [9:09 am WST] on Wednesday 14 March 2012

A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal and island communities from Kalumburu
to Dundee Beach, including Wyndham.

At 9:30 am CST [8:00 am WST] a Tropical Low was estimated to be
120 kilometres west of Port Keats and
190 kilometres east of Kalumburu and
moving south southeast at 15 kilometres per hour.

The tropical low has moved into the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf. The low may develop
into a tropical cyclone this morning before it crosses the coast between
Wyndham and the NT/WA Border late morning or early this afternoon.

GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour may develop between Dundee Beach
and Kalumburu during today.

Tides will be HIGHER THAN NORMAL between Dundee Beach and Kalumburu, during
today or tonight. Large waves may produce MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal
areas.

HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause significant stream rises and possible flooding
of low lying areas in the Darwin-Daly and northern Victoria River Districts
and Kimberley.


The Territory Controller advises residents from Dundee Beach to the NT Border
that now is the time to make final preparations to your home shelter or
identify which public emergency shelter to use.

Residents from Dundee Beach to the NT Border are advised that if you DO NOT
have accommodation constructed to the Building Code or are unsure of your
present accommodation you should decide which public emergency shelter to use.
You should now have your emergency kit complete and ready. DO NOT PROCEED TO
PUBLIC EMERGENCY SHELTERS UNTIL ADVISED TO DO SO.

FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:
BLUE ALERT: People in or near coastal communities between the WA/NT Border and
Kalumburu, including Wyndham, should start taking precautions.

Details of Tropical Low at 9:30 am CST [8:00 am WST]:
.Centre located near...... 14.4 degrees South 128.4 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 85 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the south southeast at 15 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 997 hectoPascals

Please ensure that neighbours have heard and understood this message,
particularly new arrivals or those who may not fully understand English.

The next advice will be issued by 2:00 pm CST Wednesday 14 March [12:30 pm WST
Wednesday 14 March].

This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211 and WA-1300 659 210

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

[HURAKAN]

Potential Cyclones:
A Tropical Low, 1000 hPa, was located near 16.8S, 133.2E at 1:00pm CST on 15th
March, and is moving east southeast at 27 kilometres per hour. The Tropical Low
may re-intensify if it moves over the warm waters of the southern Gulf of
Carpentaria on the weekend.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone being in the Northern Region on:
Friday: Very Low.
Saturday: Moderate.
Sunday: Moderate.

[RobWESTPACWX]

I'm still surprised at how long this one is holding on.

[HURAKAN]

I'm still surprised at how long this one is holding on.

These lows are very tenacious over northern Australia. btw, great video the other day!



Latest ECWMF, further intensification is expected over the Gulf of Carpentaria

[RobWESTPACWX]

Thanks for watching the video, just tossed a new one up here today, you got the temp of the water over the sea there? Has to be in the 30's.