CPAC: INVEST 90C

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CPAC: INVEST 90C

#1 Postby cycloneye » Fri Apr 06, 2012 11:14 am

Very early to have a invest in this basin,but here is this interesting low pressure.

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#2 Postby brunota2003 » Fri Apr 06, 2012 11:25 am

Certainly an interesting looking area of low pressure. How funny would it be if the first named storm was in the CPac?

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Re: CPAC: INVEST 90C (JMA, TD)

#3 Postby cycloneye » Fri Apr 06, 2012 11:28 am

Not a lot of thunderstorms all around the low center,but if conditions are right,that could change.

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Re: CPAC: INVEST 90C

#4 Postby Macrocane » Fri Apr 06, 2012 6:18 pm

Looks like one of those Upper Level Lows that work down to the surface and lead to subtropical cyclones.

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#5 Postby Chacor » Fri Apr 06, 2012 6:53 pm

CPHC have it at gale strength, so if it gains any tropical characteristics it would go straight to a subtropical or tropical storm:

FZPN40 PHFO 062245
HSFNP

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
2300 UTC FRI APR 06 2012

...

...GALE WARNING...
.LOW 19N175W 1001 MB MOVING WSW SLOWLY. WINDS 25 TO 40 KT WITHIN 600
NM N QUADRANT OF LOW. WINDS 20 TO 30 KT ELSEWHERE N OF LINE 30N163W
20N165W 15N175W 25N175E 30N178W. SCATTERED MODERATE TSTMS WITHIN 120
NM OF LINE 23N167W 19N178W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 17N179W 1003 MB. WINDS 25 TO 35 KT WITHIN 60
NM OF LINE 21N1751 21N180W. WINDS 20 TO 30 KT ELSEWHERE N OF 18N
BETWEEN 160W AND 172E.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 17N175E 1006 MB. WINDS 20 TO 30 KT BOUNDED BY
30N180W 25N165W 17N177W 21N170E 30N180W.

...

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#6 Postby Chacor » Fri Apr 06, 2012 6:55 pm

And here's a slightly earlier analysis of the low from CPHC:
ATHW40 PHFO 061837
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1830 UTC FRI APR 06 2012

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 1800 UTC APRIL 06 2012

...

THE MOST NOTICEABLE CLOUD FEATURE IN THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC IS A
RAGGED 600 MILE WIDE ARC OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LAYERED CLOUDS SOUTH
AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25N176W TO 23N162W TO 03N153W. ISOLATED
CUMULONIMBUS...CB...ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS CLOUD ARC...WITH THE
MOST INTENSE ACTIVITY FROM 03N TO 08N BETWEEN 156W AND 166W. THIS
CLOUD ARC MERGES WITH LAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED CB ASSOCIATED WITH
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...ITCZ...WHICH EXTENDS FROM 03N
TO 11N WEST OF 166W. NORTH OF 10N...THE CLOUD ARC CURVES
CYCLONICALLY INTO A DEEP LOW NEAR 19N175W...ABOUT 990 MILES WEST
SOUTHWEST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. WHILE MOST OF THE LAYERED
CLOUDS LIE JUST WEST OF THE ISLANDS...BREAKAWAY ELEMENTS OF MIDDLE
AND HIGH CLOUDS COVER THE WESTERN ISLANDS WITHIN THE MAIN ISLAND
CHAIN FROM TIME TO TIME. THE LOW APPEARS TO BE DRIFTING TOWARD THE
WEST SLOWLY.

WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THE LOW IS STACKED NEARLY VERTICALLY...WITH
THE UPPER LOW EMBEDDED WITHIN A NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST UPPER TROUGH
WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING ROUGHLY THROUGH 30N169W AND 11N178E...JUST
WEST OF THE DATELINE.
THERE APPEARS TO BE SUBSIDENCE OCCURRING NORTH
OF 15N BETWEEN 150W AND 160W...WITH MUCH STRONGER SUBSIDENCE AND
DRYING NOTED EAST OF 140W. A 300 MILE WIDE BAND OF SUBSIDENCE AND
DRYING LIES ALONG THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF LAYERED CLOUDS...MAINLY
NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 140W AND 175W.

...

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#7 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Apr 06, 2012 8:27 pm

Image

lacking convection
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Re: CPAC: INVEST 90C

#8 Postby euro6208 » Fri Apr 06, 2012 11:10 pm

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convection on the increase
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#9 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Apr 07, 2012 2:31 am

Seems too shallow.

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#10 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Apr 07, 2012 8:18 am

Image

looking better today
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#11 Postby Hurricanehink » Sat Apr 07, 2012 11:14 am

Wow, talk about Omeka redux. An off-season quasi-Kona storm. Next on the list is Pewa. The true test will come when the CPHC issues a tropical weather outlook, if they're intending on doing more with it.

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#12 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Apr 07, 2012 12:14 pm

Image

latest ... convection trying to develop closer to the center
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Re: CPAC: INVEST 90C

#13 Postby cycloneye » Sat Apr 07, 2012 12:29 pm

This is from the Central Pacific Hurricane Center,but is not a Tropical Weather Outlook,only a statement made this morning.

Issued: Apr 07, 2012 2:30 AM HST


Based on data through 2:00 am Apr 07 2012 HST

The responsible system is a deep area of low pressure located 1125 miles west southwest of Kauai at 19°N 176°W. The low is marked by scattered convection within 100 miles east of the low's center. The tops of the convection reaches up to 48000 feet. The system is about vertically stacked from near the surface to at least 30000 feet. It has been drifting westward but now appeared stalled.

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/cphc/?sim
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#14 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Apr 07, 2012 1:51 pm

Image

the visible looks quite interesting!
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#15 Postby brunota2003 » Sat Apr 07, 2012 1:54 pm

Looking more and more subtropical!

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#16 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Apr 07, 2012 2:34 pm

Surprised no TWO yet
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#17 Postby brunota2003 » Sat Apr 07, 2012 2:46 pm

Looks to be going west to west-south-westward at approximately 3 to 5 knots.

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#18 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Apr 07, 2012 4:05 pm

Can any models be run on this?
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#19 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Apr 07, 2012 5:18 pm

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looking even better now but it's moving towards the WPAC
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Re:

#20 Postby cycloneye » Sat Apr 07, 2012 6:21 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Can any models be run on this?


I haven't seen model runs so far as they have not made a Best Track data.
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