EPAC: INVEST 93E

[euro6208]

From JTWC...Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert



WTPN21 PHNC 100900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.5N 105.7W TO 11.2N 112.4W WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE
OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE
AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 100830Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 106.7W.
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 10.0N 106.7W,
APPROXIMATELY 560 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO, MEXICO. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FORMATIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT. A 100033Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO AN ORGANIZED BUT SLIGHTLY ELONGATED LLCC. A 100351Z
ASCAT IMAGE OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE INDICATES 15 TO 20 KNOT
WINDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
OF 05 TO 15 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
110900Z.//
NNNN

[Yellow Evan]

Won't be surprised to see a 70% at 16z.

[Chacor]

Given 16z was 58 minutes ago (and 23 minutes before your post)…

18z is the next TWO.

[Extratropical94]

18Z TWO: Still at 60%

1. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED
ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAVE CHANGED
LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THIS SYSTEM
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE
NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH...AND IT
HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Yellow Evan]

Yeah, I meant 18z.

[Yellow Evan]

Either way, it was held at 60%. Looking less organized now, wont be surprised to see it go back to 50% soon.

[Kingarabian]

I thought it was going to poof today but convection is on the increase.

[Cyclenall]

It looks radically different from yesterday (not a fan of the current appearance, always PO when that happens) where deep convection looks like its north of the forming LLC. In the latest frames it might be looking better where the center is.

NHC TWD from minutes ago:

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 102205
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN JUN 10 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
LOW PRES 1007 MB CENTERED AT 10N110W REMAINS EMBEDDED IN MONSOON
TROUGH UNDER FAVORABLE LOW SHEAR UPPER LEVEL...WARM SST AND
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ENVIRONMENT ALOFT. SYSTEM SHOWING SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION IN CURVING BANDS.
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM OF CENTER
WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FORMING WITHIN
240 NM NW AND SE.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 10N86W TO LOW PRES 1008 MB AT 09N91W TO
13N103W TO LOW PRES 1007 MB NEAR 10N109W TO 09N117W THEN ITCZ TO
07N130W TO 07N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 04N E OF
100W. NUMEROUS CLUSTERS OF MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
WITHIN 150 NM OF LOW PRES AT 10N109W.

...DISCUSSION...
MONSOON TROUGH SHOW LOW PRES SLOWLY INTENSIFYING AT 10N110W AND
DEVELOPING SECOND LOW PRES CENTER AT 09N91W. DIVERGING FLOW
ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH BROAD ANTICYCLONE AT 19N105W ENHANCING
DEEP CONVECTION ALONG MONSOON TROUGH IN VICINITY OF 110W. MODEL
GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS FOCUS ON TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT E OF
100W...WHILE WEAKENING LOW PRES AT 10N110W. HOWEVER...OVERALL
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IN REGION DURING NEXT 24-48 HRS MAY OPEN
DOOR FOR MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR CYCLOGENESIS TO OCCUR.
PRESENT FORECAST LEANS TOWARD SHORT TERM INTENSIFICATION OF LOW
PRES AT 10N110W WITH WEAKENING AS IT DRIFT AWAY FROM FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT.

*Cut*

$$
WALLY BARNES

I notice the TWDs are going into greater detail with future TC's forming. Is this a new trend because I don't remember it previously.

[cycloneye]

Cyclenall,what they say there about TC development is that the model guidance is more bullish with something forming east of 100w than from 93E. As I posted in the models discussion thread,the ECMWF has a hurricane on the 17-18.

[cycloneye]

Remains as 60%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SUN JUN 10 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..


SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
THE BAJA PENINSULA HAVE NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS
IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH. THIS DISTURBANCE HAS A
HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[Yellow Evan]

Might not develop after all as wind shear is affecting this thing. 60% is likely genrous.

[Cyclenall]

Cyclenall,what they say there about TC development is that the model guidance is more bullish with something forming east of 100w than from 93E. As I posted in the models discussion thread,the ECMWF has a hurricane on the 17-18. (Not from 93E)

I know that, that was the original area the models have been showing for 7 days now but its being pushed back slowly. 93E is a rogue system that came out of nowhere with only the GFS picking it up.

Since its not posted often:

Code: Select all

                    *   EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST   *
                    * GOES AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE       *
                    *      INVEST  EP932012  06/11/12  00 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    25    27    29    32    35    41    45    50    53    57    62    67    68
V (KT) LAND       25    27    29    32    35    41    45    50    53    57    62    67    68
V (KT) LGE mod    25    25    26    27    28    32    37    43    49    56    65    73    80
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)        19    20    20    16    17    29    31    25    22    20    19    10    14
SHEAR ADJ (KT)    -2    -1     0     0    -1    -9    -7    -2     0    -3    -2     4    -2
SHEAR DIR         82    79    89    87    88    84    86    71    66    75    76    79    96
SST (C)         29.0  28.9  28.9  28.8  28.7  28.6  28.7  28.7  28.6  28.6  28.6  28.5  28.3
POT. INT. (KT)   154   152   151   150   149   149   150   149   147   148   148   147   145
200 MB T (C)   -52.0 -52.2 -52.8 -52.7 -52.4 -53.3 -52.8 -53.5 -52.8 -53.1 -52.9 -53.5 -53.2
TH_E DEV (C)       6     6     6     6     6     6     6     6     5     5     6     6     6
700-500 MB RH     72    72    72    71    72    72    71    69    63    63    59    58    57
GFS VTEX (KT)      9     9     9     8     7     6     5     7     8     8    10    11    10
850 MB ENV VOR    35    40    40    42    39    40    45    53    53    62    75    87    91
200 MB DIV        50    48    50    80    77    65    73    52    28    36    53    41    48
700-850 TADV      -1    -3    -3     0     0    -2    -2    -1    -2    -2    -2     1     0
LAND (KM)       1135  1161  1189  1188  1189  1266  1397  1472  1462  1497  1583  1629  1669
LAT (DEG N)     10.4  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x
LONG(DEG W)    110.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT)     8     5     5     4     5     6     5     5     4     4     4     4     4
HEAT CONTENT      41    45    49    52    56    72    66    56    54    51    43    42    41

  FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10      CX,CY:  -9/  2
  T-12 MAX WIND:  25            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  515  (MEAN=581)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  15.4 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  62.0 (MEAN=65.0)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.   0.   1.   2.   7.  14.  21.  27.  30.  33.  35.  37.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     1.   1.   1.   1.  -1.  -5.  -7.  -9. -10.  -9.  -7.  -7.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.   3.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     1.   2.   3.   4.   7.  11.  14.  17.  19.  20.  21.  21.
  PERSISTENCE            0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -5.  -5.  -6.  -7.  -6.  -6.  -6.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -4.  -5.  -6.  -7.  -7.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   3.   3.   3.   3.   2.
  GFS VORTEX TENDENCY    0.   0.   0.  -1.  -3.  -4.  -3.  -1.   0.   2.   3.   3.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   2.   3.   4.   5.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   1.   1.   0.  -1.  -1.
  850-700 T ADVEC        0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  GOES PREDICTORS        0.   1.   1.   1.   1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -5.  -5.  -5.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   1.   2.   2.   4.   5.   4.   3.   4.   4.   3.   2.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           2.   4.   7.  10.  16.  20.  25.  28.  32.  37.  42.  43.

   ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932012     INVEST 06/11/12  00 UTC **
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):   0.0 Range:-20.0 to  35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  0.7
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :  18.6 Range: 17.0 to   1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.0/  0.0
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :  15.4 Range: 35.4 to   2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  0.9
 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :  48.6 Range:  0.0 to  67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  0.7
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   : 126.1 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.9/  0.8
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :  61.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.5/  0.4
 % area w/pixels <-30 C:  51.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.3/  0.1
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  70.0 Range: 64.0 to  88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.2/  0.0
 
 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=    22% is   1.9 times the sample mean(11.7%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=     2% is   0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=     2% is   0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%)
 Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold=     1% is   0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932012     INVEST 06/11/12  00 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##



Early Tracks:



Early Intensity:



I like what I see here. The GFDL and HWRF can't pick it up and show other TC's forming to the east (some strong). My lingering concern is this never gets going but hopefully that will soon pass.

[Extratropical94]

Down to 50% as of 06Z

1. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED DURING THE LAST SEVERAL
HOURS. THE PROBABILITY OF DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE DECREASING AS
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR
FORMATION. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[cycloneye]

It keeps dropping,now down to 30%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON JUN 11 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA HAVE CONTINUED TO BECOME LESS ORGANIZED...AND
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING LESS CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
GENERALLY WESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Yellow Evan]

Wow, looks like I was right.

[euro6208]

euro doesn't develop this anymore. as a matter of fact, nothing is forecast to develop in the near future...

[Yellow Evan]

Development has came from almost certain to unlikely in 24 hours.

[cycloneye]

Down to 10%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT MON JUN 11 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA HAVE BECOME DISORGANIZED...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
BECOMING INCREASINGLY LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS WESTWARD OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Yellow Evan]

Wow, that was fast.

[Kingarabian]

Man that shear is really a pain...