EPAC: INVEST 95E

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Cyclenall
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Re: It gets worse

#21 Postby Cyclenall » Wed Jun 13, 2012 5:09 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:Nah, since the ATL was quiet during that period. When did you start following ATL hurricanes? According to the left, you Joined in 2006.

Because the ATL was quiet during these years, it would be less likely for them to join a message board and talk about any TC on the planet. That's my point.

I started following Atlantic hurricanes around when Hurricane Dennis in 2005 occurred. It just snowballed from there.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E

#22 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 13, 2012 6:50 pm

What a big difference between 94E and 95E.

A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY
REMAINS DISORGANIZED...AND DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS
DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES LITTLE.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
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Re: It gets worse

#23 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Jun 13, 2012 10:09 pm

Cyclenall wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:Nah, since the ATL was quiet during that period. When did you start following ATL hurricanes? According to the left, you Joined in 2006.

Because the ATL was quiet during these years, it would be less likely for them to join a message board and talk about any TC on the planet. That's my point.

I started following Atlantic hurricanes around when Hurricane Dennis in 2005 occurred. It just snowballed from there.


Ah, thanks for telling me.
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#24 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Jun 14, 2012 9:36 am

From 11 TWO

1. A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE HAS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. THE ASSOCIATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED AND SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
DISTURBANCE IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

From 11 TWO, not on 5. Has this be de-activated?
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#25 Postby Extratropical94 » Thu Jun 14, 2012 9:39 am

Not on TWO anymore and the invest has been deactivated

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_DEACTIVATE_ep952012.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201206141321
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 95, 2012, DB, O, 2012061212, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP952012
EP, 95, 2012061212, , BEST, 0, 110N, 1010W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 95, 2012061218, , BEST, 0, 110N, 1010W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 95, 2012061300, , BEST, 0, 110N, 1010W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 95, 2012061306, , BEST, 0, 110N, 1022W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 95, 2012061312, , BEST, 0, 110N, 1035W, 20, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 100, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
EP, 95, 2012061318, , BEST, 0, 110N, 1047W, 20, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 95, 2012061400, , BEST, 0, 111N, 1060W, 20, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
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#26 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Jun 14, 2012 9:42 am

Goodbye 95E.
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#27 Postby Extratropical94 » Fri Jun 15, 2012 1:06 pm

Is this still 95E?


1. AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 600
MILES SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. ANY DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E

#28 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jun 16, 2012 7:33 pm

Extratropical94,the invest is back! :)


EP, 95, 2012061700, , BEST, 0, 153N, 1112W, 20, 1005, DB

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inve ... 012.invest
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#29 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Jun 16, 2012 9:27 pm

Welcome back 95E!
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E

#30 Postby Extratropical94 » Sun Jun 17, 2012 1:56 am

cycloneye wrote:Extratropical94,the invest is back! :)


EP, 95, 2012061700, , BEST, 0, 153N, 1112W, 20, 1005, DB

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inve ... 012.invest


:D :D

LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO
MEXICO. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OR
NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 5 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
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#31 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Jun 17, 2012 4:53 am

GFS brings it close to Mexico... Away from that huge patch of dry air.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E

#32 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jun 17, 2012 7:48 am

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 460 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF MANZANILLO MEXICO IS PRODUCING A FEW DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO
OCCUR DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AT
ABOUT 5 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
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#33 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Jun 17, 2012 10:30 am

Does not have much time to develop as it is getting close to land. I'd say 36 hours to develop. Either way, it looks like MX might game rain from this.

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E

#34 Postby euro6208 » Sun Jun 17, 2012 11:11 am

euro shows this developing to a very weak system and moving towards mexico...
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#35 Postby Zanthe » Sun Jun 17, 2012 12:51 pm

ANOTHER Mexican storm?
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Re:

#36 Postby euro6208 » Sun Jun 17, 2012 11:21 pm

Zanthe wrote:ANOTHER Mexican storm?


latest euro has this dissipating over water soon...
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#37 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Jun 18, 2012 1:34 am

Actually its up to 30%. I personally believe its generally large size will limit any possible rapid development.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E

#38 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 18, 2012 6:37 am

Up to 40%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON JUN 18 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 270 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF MANZANILLO MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LARGE
DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY EASTWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODS
AND MUDSLIDES WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E

#39 Postby euro6208 » Mon Jun 18, 2012 10:37 am

hmm euro now shows this developing into possibly a tropical storm making landfall over mexico...
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#40 Postby Extratropical94 » Mon Jun 18, 2012 12:48 pm

Up to 60%

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 260 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO
MEXICO IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY EASTWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS
OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE THREAT FOR FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
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