CPAC: DANIEL - Post-Tropical

[Fyzn94]

My personal predictions on hurricanes becoming pretty powerful have been well supported lately.....what is going on??? I tend to argue against NHC predictions.

[Yellow Evan]

My personal predictions on hurricanes becoming pretty powerful have been well supported lately.....what is going on??? I tend to argue against NHC predictions.

The EPAC is being awesome, that is what is going on.

[Fyzn94]

Why are they prettier when weakening?

[Kingarabian]

I dont think its weakening at all... with a new deep convective ring trying to wrap around its eye.
Its really amazing how its trying to strengthen even though its over 25c ssts..

[Yellow Evan]

I dont think its weakening at all... with a new deep convective ring trying to wrap around its eye.
Its really amazing how its trying to strengthen even though its over 25c ssts..

What is the MPI for 25 C?

[Kingarabian]

I dont think its weakening at all... with a new deep convective ring trying to wrap around its eye.
Its really amazing how its trying to strengthen even though its over 25c ssts..

What is the MPI for 25 C?

For this week it's a TS-Cat1..

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042012
200 PM PDT SUN JUL 08 2012

CENTRAL CONVECTION HAD BEEN DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY...
ALTHOUGH RECENTLY CLOUD TOPS NEAR THE EYEWALL HAVE COOLED. THE EYE
IS STILL APPARENT IN INFRARED IMAGERY...AND IS CLOUD FILLED ON THE
VISIBLE IMAGES. THE ADVISORY WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 90 KT IN
ACCORDANCE WITH CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.
ALTHOUGH DANIEL SHOULD REMAIN IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...GRADUAL WEAKENING IS LIKELY AS THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE MOVES OVER RELATIVELY COOL WATERS AND THROUGH A STABLE AIR
MASS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LGEM PREDICTION
AND THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS.

DANIEL CONTINUES ITS PERSISTENT WESTWARD TREK AND THE CURRENT MOTION
ESTIMATE IS 275/12. THE TRACK FORECAST SCENARIO HAS NOT CHANGED
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. A PRONOUNCED MID-TROPOSPHERIC
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN AN EASTERLY STEERING
CURRENT FOR THE CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS ONES AND
LIES BETWEEN THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF TRACKS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/2100Z 15.2N 125.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 15.3N 127.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 15.6N 129.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 10/0600Z 15.7N 132.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 10/1800Z 15.8N 136.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 11/1800Z 15.9N 142.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 12/1800Z 16.0N 148.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 13/1800Z 16.0N 153.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Kingarabian]

[Yellow Evan]

I dont think its weakening at all... with a new deep convective ring trying to wrap around its eye.
Its really amazing how its trying to strengthen even though its over 25c ssts..

What is the MPI for 25 C?

For this week it's a TS-Cat1..

Wow, and Dainel is a Cat 2. This storm is getting more amazing as I type this.

[Yellow Evan]

Still a pretty good looking hurricane.

[KWT]

Thats certainly a good looking hurricane right now, doesn't look like its weakening at all at the moment thats for sure!

[Kingarabian]

Eye continues to warm.

[Laplacian]

How do you arrive at the conclusion that the eye is warming by looking at a conventional channel-4 image? Doesn't make any sense to me.

[Kingarabian]

How do you arrive at the conclusion that the eye is warming by looking at a conventional channel-4 image? Doesn't make any sense to me.

No I just posted that picture because it looked good. Sorry for the confusion.
My basis for saying that they eye is warming is based on the last few frames and analysis from ADT:

Code: Select all

        UW - CIMSS                     
              ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE       
                  ADT-Version 8.1.3               
         Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm       

             ----- Current Analysis -----
     Date :  08 JUL 2012    Time :   213000 UTC
      Lat :   15:09:38 N     Lon :  125:15:33 W

     
                CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
                4.6 / 975.8mb/ 79.6kt

     
             Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T#
                4.6     5.0     5.0

 Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 13 km

 Center Temp :  -0.2C    Cloud Region Temp : -52.0C

 Scene Type : EYE 

 Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

 Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC 
 Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC   

 Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
                   Weakening Flag : OFF   
           Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF   

 C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
  - Average 34 knot radii :   87km
  - Environmental MSLP    : 1009mb

 Satellite Viewing Angle : 21.0 degrees

Edit:

Really funny how the weakening flag is off right now despite t/he dry air and very cool SST's.

How does a storm strengthen with this much dry air around it?

[Yellow Evan]

Dainel is defying dry air, that's all.

[hurricaneCW]

Isn't the low shear the reason why the dry air hasn't penetrated into the system?

[Yellow Evan]

Isn't the low shear the reason why the dry air hasn't penetrated into the system?

It's likely helping IMO.

[Kingarabian]

Isn't the low shear the reason why the dry air hasn't penetrated into the system?

On point. Exactly what I was thinking last night.

[Kingarabian]

[cycloneye]

The 00z Best Track mantains Daniel at 90kts.

EP, 04, 2012070900, , BEST, 0, 152N, 1257W, 90, 970, HU

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest