ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical

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Steve H.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Post Tropical

#201 Postby Steve H. » Mon Aug 06, 2012 5:15 pm

Don't think we've seen the last of Florence, but I've been wrong before. Whenever you have a surface circulation in mid August at this latitude ya can't count it out.

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#202 Postby jonj2040 » Mon Aug 06, 2012 9:26 pm

Has some convection for the first time in a while lets see what happens, will it stay, or poof again? Not that it's anywhere close to its former self, just a step in that direction.
Image

not a prediction BTW but

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#203 Postby Hurricane Alexis » Tue Aug 07, 2012 1:20 am

A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS REDEVELOPED NEAR THE
POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW OF FLORENCE...LOCATED ABOUT 1150 MILES
EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
NOT CONDUCIVE FOR REDEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF AGAIN BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Post Tropical

#204 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 07, 2012 7:02 am

8 AM TWO.

SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED THIS MORNING NEAR THE POST-TROPICAL
REMNANT LOW OF FLORENCE...LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
NOT CONDUCIVE FOR REDEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF AGAIN BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#205 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 07, 2012 8:03 am

The BAMS are running again for ex Florence.

12z Models

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 071249
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1249 UTC TUE AUG 7 2012

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE FLORENCE (AL062012) 20120807 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
120807 1200 120808 0000 120808 1200 120809 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.0N 46.7W 18.4N 50.8W 20.0N 55.0W 21.8N 58.7W
BAMD 17.0N 46.7W 18.2N 49.5W 19.6N 52.1W 21.1N 54.2W
BAMM 17.0N 46.7W 17.9N 49.9W 19.2N 53.2W 20.7N 56.2W
LBAR 17.0N 46.7W 18.0N 50.1W 19.2N 53.3W 20.6N 56.1W
SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 30KTS 34KTS
DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 30KTS 34KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
120809 1200 120810 1200 120811 1200 120812 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 23.6N 61.6W 27.1N 65.1W 29.7N 66.2W 31.6N 66.8W
BAMD 22.3N 55.5W 22.1N 57.0W 20.2N 60.5W 18.7N 65.9W
BAMM 22.2N 58.7W 23.9N 61.8W 24.2N 65.5W 24.1N 69.9W
LBAR 21.7N 58.5W 22.8N 61.8W 23.1N 65.3W 21.8N 70.0W
SHIP 34KTS 33KTS 38KTS 46KTS
DSHP 34KTS 33KTS 38KTS 46KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.0N LONCUR = 46.7W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 20KT
LATM12 = 16.6N LONM12 = 42.4W DIRM12 = 274DEG SPDM12 = 17KT
LATM24 = 16.3N LONM24 = 39.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

Image
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Post Tropical

#206 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 07, 2012 1:07 pm

2 PM TWO.

DISORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW OF FLORENCE...LOCATED ABOUT 875 MILES
EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
NOT CONDUCIVE FOR REDEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF AGAIN BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Post Tropical

#207 Postby Blown Away » Tue Aug 07, 2012 1:25 pm

Image
12z BAMS for ex-Flo. Maybe Flo could become a homegrown comeback?
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#208 Postby Extratropical94 » Tue Aug 07, 2012 1:55 pm

18Z Best Track, pressure up one millibar (12Z had her at 1010)

AL, 06, 2012080718, , BEST, 0, 176N, 485W, 25, 1011, LO
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Post Tropical

#209 Postby floridasun78 » Tue Aug 07, 2012 2:15 pm

what i see nhc dont gave it a chance for comeback
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Post Tropical

#210 Postby JabNOLA » Tue Aug 07, 2012 2:51 pm

In 48 hours. I agree. They are 90% against it.

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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Post Tropical

#211 Postby tolakram » Tue Aug 07, 2012 4:10 pm

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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Post Tropical

#212 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 07, 2012 7:05 pm

8 PM TWO.

SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS WEAKENED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE REMNANT LOW
OF FLORENCE LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR
REDEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH.
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#213 Postby floridasun78 » Tue Aug 07, 2012 8:54 pm

ex FLORENCE is done going run into shear in eastern carribbean
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#214 Postby weatherSnoop » Tue Aug 07, 2012 9:15 pm

floridasun78 wrote:ex FLORENCE is done going run into shear in eastern carribbean

guess that is why convection is forming east of the center. First time we have seen that this season.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Post Tropical

#215 Postby floridasun78 » Tue Aug 07, 2012 10:37 pm

look like still want fight Image
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Post Tropical

#216 Postby ROCK » Tue Aug 07, 2012 10:50 pm

whats its doing is carving up the SAL so 92L doesnt have some much to work with....
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Post Tropical

#217 Postby floridasun78 » Tue Aug 07, 2012 10:53 pm

ROCK wrote:whats its doing is carving up the SAL so 92L doesnt have some much to work with....

you think 92l dont have chance too
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Post Tropical

#218 Postby ROCK » Tue Aug 07, 2012 10:59 pm

floridasun78 wrote:
ROCK wrote:whats its doing is carving up the SAL so 92L doesnt have some much to work with....

you think 92l dont have chance too



see my post about 92L...and the intensity models...in that thread... :D
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Post Tropical

#219 Postby ROCK » Tue Aug 07, 2012 11:00 pm

she is fixing to run into a 50kt shear zone.....decapitation wont be long...IMO
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#220 Postby artist » Wed Aug 08, 2012 12:09 pm

Image
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