WPAC: KIROGI - Post-Tropical

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Meow

#21 Postby Meow » Tue Aug 07, 2012 5:02 pm

Again... The JTWC estimates 13W will become subtropical. :double:
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#22 Postby yulou » Tue Aug 07, 2012 10:42 pm

JMA:TS....... :double:
welcome,KIROGI
Image
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Re:

#23 Postby Meow » Wed Aug 08, 2012 12:28 am

yulou wrote:JMA:TS....... :double:
welcome,KIROGI
Image

The JMA regretted. :lol: TD -> Extratropical -> TS ... I have never seen that from the JMA.
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Re: WPAC: KIROGI - Tropical Storm

#24 Postby dexterlabio » Wed Aug 08, 2012 12:52 am

so far, after Kirogi has been named by the RSMC, are we officially ahead of average named TC's this year as of this date?
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Re: Re:

#25 Postby euro6208 » Wed Aug 08, 2012 3:26 am

The JMA regretted. :lol: TD -> Extratropical -> TS ... I have never seen that from the JMA.


lol...JMA too quick to write off a system and now they upgraded back to a TS...

meanwhile, JTWC has this as a tropical storm ever since now at 40 knots...
Last edited by euro6208 on Wed Aug 08, 2012 3:33 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: WPAC: KIROGI - Tropical Storm

#26 Postby euro6208 » Wed Aug 08, 2012 3:29 am

dexterlabio wrote:so far, after Kirogi has been named by the RSMC, are we officially ahead of average named TC's this year as of this date?


on the WPAC season thread on talkin tropics, someone mentioned we are 2 ahead...so now that we have kirogi after JMA realized its been a tropical storm ever since...does that mean 3?
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Re: WPAC: KIROGI - Tropical Storm

#27 Postby euro6208 » Wed Aug 08, 2012 10:18 am

WTPN31 PGTW 081500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 13W (KIROGI) WARNING NR 016
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z --- NEAR 32.7N 157.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 32.7N 157.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 34.4N 155.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 37.0N 152.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 40.0N 150.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 44.0N 148.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
081500Z POSITION NEAR 33.1N 156.7E.
TROPICAL STORM 13W (KIROGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 885 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
081200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 082100Z, 090300Z, 090900Z AND
091500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 12W (HAIKUI) FOR FINAL WARNING
(WTPN33 PGTW).//
NNNN

Image

WDPN31 PGTW 081500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 13W (KIROGI) WARNING
NR 16//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 13W (KIROGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 885 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 081021Z AMSU-B 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT AN ELONGATING
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH THE MAJORITY OF DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. TS 13W STILL EXHIBITS
WARM-CORE CHARACTERISTICS AS THE MOST RECENT (080500Z) AMSU CROSS-
SECTION INDICATES A +2 DEGREE CELSIUS WARM-CORE ANOMALY CENTERED
NEAR 11 KM AND RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA (081023Z ASCAT AND 081232Z
OSCAT) STILL SHOW A SYMMETRIC WIND FIELD. DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGE
FROM 30-35 KNOTS FROM RJTD AND PGTW/KNES RESPECTIVELY. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN SIX HOURS AGO BASED ON THE
ELONGATION OF THE LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TS 13W
IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 09 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
CENTER WITH A SLIGHTLY DISPLACED TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH
(TUTT) CELL TO THE SOUTHWEST. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS CURRENTLY AT
10-15 KNOTS AND UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS MINIMAL WITH VERY WEAK
OUTFLOW TO THE EAST INTO THE TUTT. HOWEVER, RECENT ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE BEGINNINGS OF A SLIGHT ELONGATION IN THE
POLEWARD DIRECTION AS TS 13W TRACKS CLOSER TO AN UPPER-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EAST OF JAPAN. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS NEARLY CUT-OFF FROM ANY CONNECTION TO THE
MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS WITH A SLIVER OF INFLUX FROM THE
SOUTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 13W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK UNDER THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR), POSITIONED TO THE EAST, FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK
OVER INCREASINGLY COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (< 25 CELSIUS) AT
38 DEGREES NORTH (SHORTLY AFTER TAU 24) AND WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT
WITH THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO DEEPEN EAST OF JAPAN. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SUBTROPICAL JET AND HAS WEAK BAROCLINICITY, THEREFORE, THE
SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO UNDERGO EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AND
SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION IS THE MOST LIKELY RESULT. ALTHOUGH THE
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE TIMING OF SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION IS
LOW, THE TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH DUE TO TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED OBJECTIVE AID GUIDANCE.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: KIROGI - Tropical Storm

#28 Postby euro6208 » Wed Aug 08, 2012 10:22 am

Image


TXPQ28 KNES 081507
TCSWNP

A. 13W (KIROGI)

B. 08/1432Z

C. 33.1N

D. 156.9E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS... 4/10 BANDING FOR DT=2.5. MET=1.5 WITH PT=2.0. FT IS
BASED ON DT.
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Re: WPAC: KIROGI - Tropical Storm

#29 Postby Meow » Wed Aug 08, 2012 11:21 am

euro6208 wrote:on the WPAC season thread on talkin tropics, someone mentioned we are 2 ahead...so now that we have kirogi after JMA realized its been a tropical storm ever since...does that mean 3?

http://agora.ex.nii.ac.jp/cgi-bin/dt/nu ... &year=2012

2.4
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Re: WPAC: KIROGI - Tropical Storm

#30 Postby euro6208 » Thu Aug 09, 2012 12:12 am

WTPN31 PGTW 090300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W (KIROGI) WARNING NR 018
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 13W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z --- NEAR 34.7N 155.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 34.7N 155.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 37.4N 152.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 41.4N 149.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 45.4N 147.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
090300Z POSITION NEAR 35.4N 154.6E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W (KIROGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 745 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
090000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090900Z, 091500Z, 092100Z AND
100300Z.//
NNNN

Image

WDPN31 PGTW 090300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W (KIROGI)
WARNING NR 18//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W (KIROGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 745 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 082149Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A SLIGHTLY
ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ORIENTED FROM NW TO SE
WITH A SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A
PARTIAL 082244Z ASCAT SATELLITE IMAGE INDICATES WINDS ALONG THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY ARE BETWEEN 25 TO 30 KNOTS. THE MOST RECENT AMSU
CROSS-SECTION (081500Z) SHOWS THE +2 DEGREE CELSIUS WARM-CORE
ANOMALY REMAINS PERSISTENT NEAR 10 TO 11 KM. THE CURRENT INTENSITY
OF 30 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE ASCAT PASS AND A RANGE OF DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM 25 TO 35 KNOTS FROM PGTW, RJTD, AND KNES. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TD 13W IS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) AXIS WITH A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT)
CELL TO THE SOUTH. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS CURRENTLY AT 10-15 KNOTS,
AND UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS MINIMAL WITH VERY WEAK OUTFLOW TO THE
SOUTH INTO THE TUTT. RECENT ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES
TO SHOW A NARROW REGION OF POLEWARD OUTFLOW AS TD 13W TRACKS CLOSER
TO AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EAST OF JAPAN. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS BECOMING ELONGATED AND REMAINS
CUT-OFF FROM ANY CONNECTION TO THE MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 13W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK UNDER THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE STR, POSITIONED TO THE EAST, FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK OVER INCREASINGLY
COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) (< 25 CELSIUS) AT 38 DEGREES
NORTH, AFTER TAU 12, AND WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN EAST OF
JAPAN. QUICKLY DECREASING SSTS WILL CAUSE A TRANSITION FROM WARM-
CORE TROPICAL TO A COLD-CORE SUBTROPICAL LOW. ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST
CONFIDENCE FOR THE TIMING OF SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION IS LOW, THE
TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH DUE TO TIGHTLY CLUSTERED
OBJECTIVE AID GUIDANCE.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: KIROGI - Tropical Storm

#31 Postby euro6208 » Thu Aug 09, 2012 12:15 am

Image

i cant believe this is only a tropical depression....kirogi is extremely organized possibly as a high end tropical storm


UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 09 AUG 2012 Time : 043000 UTC
Lat : 35:44:16 N Lon : 154:16:45 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.2 / 984.6mb/ 49.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.1 3.2 3.2

Center Temp : -54.3C Cloud Region Temp : -51.8C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : N/A
- Environmental MSLP : 1007mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 42.6 degrees
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Re: WPAC: KIROGI - Severe Tropical Storm

#32 Postby Meow » Thu Aug 09, 2012 2:14 am

euro6208 wrote:i cant believe this is only a tropical depression....kirogi is extremely organized possibly as a high end tropical storm

So, later the JMA upgraded Kirogi to a severe tropical storm. :ggreen:

Image

STS 1212 (KIROGI)
Issued at 06:50 UTC, 9 August 2012

<Analyses at 09/06 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N36°00'(36.0°)
E154°05'(154.1°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 35km/h(20kt)
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more NE440km(240NM)
SW330km(180NM)

<Forecast for 09/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N39°10'(39.2°)
E151°35'(151.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 35km/h(20kt)
Central pressure 994hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)

<Forecast for 10/06 UTC>
Intensity -
LOW
Center position of probability circle N42°30'(42.5°)
E149°20'(149.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 35km/h(20kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
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Re: WPAC: KIROGI - Severe Tropical Storm

#33 Postby euro6208 » Thu Aug 09, 2012 10:08 am

gradually weakening but it's remnants will afftect the northern islands of japan...we are lucky that kirogi did not make landfall like most of the season this year...plus it's weaker... :D


WTPN31 PGTW 091500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 13W (KIROGI) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091200Z --- NEAR 37.6N 152.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 37.6N 152.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 41.1N 149.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 45.3N 147.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 49.9N 146.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
091500Z POSITION NEAR 38.5N 151.9E.
TROPICAL STORM 13W (KIROGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 550 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 20
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
091200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 092100Z, 100300Z, 100900Z AND
101500Z.//
NNNN

Image

WDPN31 PGTW 091500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 13W (KIROGI) WARNING
NR 20//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 13W (KIROGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 550 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 20
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY, AND A 090912Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE,
DEPICT A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH BUILDING CENTRAL CONVECTION, AS INDICATED BY THE COOLING CLOUD
TOPS IN THE EIR. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED IMAGERY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY
IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS FROM PGTW, RJTD, AND KNES.
EVEN THOUGH THERE ARE NO NEW AMSU CROSS-SECTIONS TO DETAIL THE
TEMPERATURE CHARACTERISTICS OF THE SYSTEM, IT IS CLEARLY EVIDENT
THAT TS KIROGI STILL MAINTAINS A WARM-CORE STRUCTURE. AS THE SYSTEM
TRACKS INCREASINGLY FASTER TO THE NORTHWEST, AND THE STEERING
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) RE-ORIENTATES TO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED NORTH-
SOUTH AXIS, THE LLCC HAS BECOME POSITIONED UNDER THE NEWLY FORMED
RIDGE AXIS. THIS IS ALLOWING FOR WEAK (05-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) AND NOTICEABLY IMPROVED UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE.
ADDITIONALLY, THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOP INDICATES AN INFLUX
OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SUBTROPICAL JET AND A SURFACE LOW EAST OF JAPAN. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW ONLY ONE EXHAUST MECHANISM POLEWARD
TOWARDS THE DIGGING TROUGH EAST OF JAPAN. TS 13W IS CURRENTLY
STEERING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE AMPLIFYING STR
LOCATED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 13W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK UNDER THE SOUTHWESTERN TO WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
SYSTEM WILL BE CROSSING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE (SST) THRESHOLD OF 26 DEGREES CELSIUS BY TAU 03, AND
INTO 23-25C SST'S DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. BY
TAU 36, VWS SHOULD INCREASE TO MODERATE-STRONG LEVELS. THE DYNAMIC
MODEL 500 MB HEIGHTS, VORTICITY, AND TEMPERATURE FIELDS ALL
INDICATE TEMPERATURE ADVECTION BEGINNING BY TAU 12 WITH THE LLCC
INCORPORATED INTO THE 576 DECAMETER ISOPLETH BY TAU 36.
ADDITIONALLY, VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM,
CURRENTLY QUASI-STATIONARY OFF THE EAST COAST OF JAPAN, MERGES WITH
THAT OF TS 13W'S VORTICITY FIELD. ALL OF THESE FACTORS; TEMPERATURE
ADVECTION, COOLER SST'S, MERGING OF VORTICITY FIELDS, AND CAPTURE
INTO THE POLAR FRONT JET, LEAD TO BETTER CONFIDENCE ABOUT THE
SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION TIMING. THE TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE ALSO
REMAINS HIGH DUE TO TIGHTLY CLUSTERED OBJECTIVE AID GUIDANCE.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: KIROGI - Severe Tropical Storm

#34 Postby euro6208 » Thu Aug 09, 2012 10:20 am

Image

interesting...our current storm, kirogi, has been used 3 times since 2000 the first time it was used was in 2000...when it peaked at category 4 115 knots typhoon!...kirogi made landfall as a category 1 typhoon near tokyo...

Image

then in 2005, kirogi was even stronger...125 knots...category 4 strength, just shy of super typhoon strength, but good thing is that it missed japan by a few hundred miles....

2012 kirogi is by far weaker...peaking at only moderate tropical storm and affecting no one...

Image

2012 current kirogi
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Re: WPAC: KIROGI - Severe Tropical Storm

#35 Postby euro6208 » Thu Aug 09, 2012 10:45 am

at 50 knots....

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.3 / 982.0mb/ 51.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.2 3.3 3.3
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#36 Postby KWT » Thu Aug 09, 2012 11:02 am

Still holding on despite being fairly far north now.
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Re: WPAC: KIROGI - Severe Tropical Storm

#37 Postby Meow » Fri Aug 10, 2012 5:59 am

euro6208 wrote:2012 kirogi is by far weaker...peaking at only moderate tropical storm and affecting no one...

It was a severe tropical storm and currently affecting Hokkaido.
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Re: WPAC: KIROGI - Severe Tropical Storm

#38 Postby euro6208 » Fri Aug 10, 2012 10:43 am

Final Warning from JTWC

WTPN31 PGTW 092100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 13W (KIROGI) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z --- NEAR 39.3N 151.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 39.3N 151.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 43.3N 148.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 47.5N 147.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
092100Z POSITION NEAR 40.3N 150.7E.
TROPICAL STORM 13W (KIROGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 470 NM EAST OF
MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. TS 13W IS APPROACHING 40N AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TRANSITIONING FROM A WARM CORE TROPICAL SYSTEM TO A COLD CORE
SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM. THE STORM WILL SUCCUMB TO INCREASING VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AS IT GAINS
LATITUDE AND COMPLETES SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION DURING THE NEXT 12
HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS
17 FEET.//
NNNN

Image
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