ATL: GORDON - Post-Tropical

[ozonepete]

So what is the possibility of this storm hitting Africa as a TC? Has that ever happened before?

It is already too far north to hit Africa. It is embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies now and will get steered eastward and gradually then northeastward because of that. The lowest latitude it can go would take it into Portugal, but probably as a very weak remnant low since the water temps are so cold there. I've never read or heard about a TC surviving the journey eastward lower than 35 degrees N and hitting Africa. Climatologically almost impossible.

[CrazyC83]

From what I can see, there is a lot of shear around it, but the shear is directional in the same direction as the storm movement so it isn't impacting Gordon right now. But once it turns, then the shear seriously comes into play.

Once past about 20W, dry air starts to come into play as well.

[CrazyC83]

20120818 2345 34.4 35.0 T5.0/5.0 08L GORDON

[Cyclenall]

Its does look more annular now then a few hours ago, eye becoming more round and defined with a burst of deeper convection to the north which is pretty rare for hurricanes at this latitude. Looks like its very close to 100 knots IMO...

If it becomes annular officially, could Gordon make a run at some more history by becoming the first annular hurricane to ever hit landmass while being? I always wanted to see radar imagery and ground observations of one (like its behavior during landfall).

They are much more common in the WESTPAC, Cyclenall. And many have hit land there. I can't think of one right off the bat, but here's the seminal paper on Annular hurricanes. It covers so much.
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/resourc ... _Knaff.pdf

I can't think of any annular tropical cyclones in the Wpac off the top of my head and none that made landfall while being. I think I saw some historically that looked annular but I don't know the name(s). I'll look at the file sometime later.

So what is the possibility of this storm hitting Africa as a TC? Has that ever happened before?

I asked this question once and a meteorologist told me it has never happened in recorded history. This is talking about Atlantic tropical cyclones that try to hit the west side of Africa again, not including 1 TC that formed while still over the continent.

I hope the NHC goes all the way to 100 knots by 11:00 pm EDT, lets make history everyone.

[hurricanes1234]

Did the T# go down to 5.0?

Just my view on the way things are going...not an official forecast. I could easily be incorrect.

[CrazyC83]

AL, 08, 2012081900, , BEST, 0, 343N, 350W, 95, 965, HU

[hurricanes1234]

Please excuse me for my inexperience...I only started tracking hurricanes on Thursday 1st June, 2011. Sometimes, when you post updates, I may ask several questions, because I am fairly new at tracking storms...and I don't know much about what the T numbers are...and all the other codes, etc. All I know about them is the wind speed, pressure and the intensity/track models. I may know a few other basics, but I know little about the in-depth descriptions of updates. Again...I do apologize if I ask too many questions.

[mykka]

It really should start to weaken soon, no? Water temps in Azores are 23ºC. As for Portugal, there's no chance, its west coast temps are 20ºC, way below what's required. Unless its heading southwards to the Algarve coast, there its around 23ºC so...

[hurricanes1234]

This may be Gordon's last opportunity to intensify. It is currently over SSTs of 27 degrees Celsius, and may cross the 26 degree isotherm in about 6-12 hours. If it doesn't intensify by 11:00 PM, it may not be able to do so thereafter. Even if it doesn't strengthen any further, nobody can deny it; Gordon really put on a surprise show for us - the NHC initially expected it to strengthen into a 70 mph tropical storm, and look at it - 40 mph stronger than what was initially expected!

However, as impressive as it is, the Azores better have everything already put in place for this hurricane.

_________
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[mykka]

I think category 3 is possible for a while

I dont think the Azores are well prepared tbh. Looking at some commentaries from Portuguese folks, there was little focus on this issue on the news, and people seem to be on the streets having a good time as if nothing were to happen. Obviously its nice and smooth now, but that will change rapidly.

[cycloneye]

According to ADT Gordon is a major cane.

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 19 AUG 2012 Time : 011500 UTC
Lat : 34:22:06 N Lon : 34:26:44 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.6 / 953.1mb/104.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.5 5.5 5.5

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Just wow, I hope the Azores are ready for Gordon.

[mykka]

So is it category 3 then?

[tolakram]

Looks stronger, red wrapping around.

[cycloneye]

So is it category 3 then?

Until NHC makes it official,is still a category 2.

[CrazyC83]

With the full reds wrapping around, I would personally estimate 100 kt.


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[greenkat]

Please excuse me for my inexperience...I only started tracking hurricanes on Thursday 1st June, 2011. Sometimes, when you post updates, I may ask several questions, because I am fairly new at tracking storms...and I don't know much about what the T numbers are...and all the other codes, etc. All I know about them is the wind speed, pressure and the intensity/track models. I may know a few other basics, but I know little about the in-depth descriptions of updates. Again...I do apologize if I ask too many questions.

No problem, man! I'd be happy to answer any questions you may have!

[brunota2003]

This is one of those hurricanes that, if it were not for the fact it is about to impact land, you'd want to cheer on.

That being said...I can't believe that I left this morning and Gordon jumped up to a 95 knot hurricane! Definitely had some weird TCs over the past few seasons.

[greenkat]

I would like a poll... Which hurricane do you think has been the weirdest this season Chris, Helene, or Gordon. Just curious. My vote goes to Gordon.

[mykka]

With the full reds wrapping around, I would personally estimate 100 kt.


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

How often does NHC update?